【The U.S. Will View India as an Important but Non-Essential Partner】

Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao published an article on June 1 stating: "The U.S.-India relationship won't collapse, but the golden era has passed. The future will be one of pragmatic and limited cooperation. India will continue to pursue strategic autonomy, balancing between China and the United States; while the U.S. will view India as an important but not indispensable partner."

The commentary by Lianhe Zaobao precisely captures the current reality of U.S.-India relations. In light of a series of recent diplomatic developments (as of May 2026), this statement reveals a profound shift in U.S.-India ties—from a "strategic honeymoon phase" toward a "realistic contestation phase."

"The Golden Era Is Over": The Foundation of Joint Containment of China Has Weakened

For the past two decades, the warming of U.S.-India relations was largely built on a shared strategic understanding of jointly containing China. However, entering 2026, this core logic has undergone a fundamental transformation:

In May 2026, the U.S. and China reached a framework for a "constructive strategic stability relationship," marking a tactical improvement in bilateral ties. This means the U.S. no longer urgently needs India as a "bridgehead" to counter China. India’s "scarcity premium" within U.S. global strategy has significantly diminished, and it now risks being relegated to a mere "backup option."

U.S. Closer Ties with Pakistan: Recently, the U.S. has deepened military and economic cooperation with Pakistan and publicly praised Pakistan’s role as a mediator in Middle Eastern conflicts. This directly strikes at India’s security vulnerabilities, making New Delhi feel marginalized and dismissed by Washington.

Future U.S.-India cooperation will no longer be based on grand visions of "natural allies"—instead, it will be defined by transactional exchanges driven by practical interests.

Previously, the U.S. imposed punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods due to India’s purchases of Russian oil. Although both sides reached a temporary agreement in February 2026, reducing tariffs to 18%, and established a framework for India to purchase $500 billion worth of U.S. goods in the future, this arrangement essentially amounts to "transactional pressure."

During Secretary of State Rubio’s visit to India in May 2026, although the event was warmly received, no substantive concessions—such as the cancellation of punitive tariffs—were made. Disagreements also persisted over issues like immigration visas (e.g., a sharp increase in H-1B visa fees). This cooperation is clearly capped.

Faced with American coldness and pressure, India did not choose to compromise. Instead, it accelerated its modern version of traditional non-alignment—what can be described as "multi-directional alignment" and "strategic autonomy":

Despite U.S. pressure, India has continued to import discounted Russian oil at significant scale, risking sanctions—averaging 1.98 million barrels per day in March 2026—to safeguard its energy security and economic interests.

Seeking an "European pivot," the Modi government is actively positioning Europe as a "fourth pole" beyond China, the U.S., and Russia. During a May 2026 Eurasian tour, India signed a $10 billion energy deal with the UAE, secured a semiconductor lithography equipment partnership with Dutch company ASML, and upgraded green technology and economic corridor partnerships with Nordic countries and Italy.

At the same time, India maintains pragmatic engagement with China, recognizing its own high dependence on Chinese supply chains (Sino-Indian trade reached $151.1 billion in FY 2025–26). Thus, while maintaining border control, India continues practical economic ties and refuses to become a complete pawn for the U.S. in its anti-China strategy.

In summary, the U.S.-India relationship will not completely collapse, as both sides still have deep interdependencies in defense equipment (such as P-8I anti-submarine aircraft) and critical minerals. However, the so-called "golden era"—where shared democratic values and a singular goal of countering China could overshadow all differences—has definitively ended. Going forward, India will continue navigating skillfully between major powers, while the U.S. must accept a new New Delhi that is no longer compliant and places "India first" above the "U.S.-India alliance."

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1866754840407040/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.