[Text/Observer Network Wang Yi] The "reciprocal tariff" that US President Trump plans to impose on countries with the largest trade deficits with the United States will take effect at 00:01 a.m. Eastern Time on April 9. Since Trump announced this round of tariff measures last week, despite condemnation from many world leaders, only China has officially announced countermeasures. Other countries are either indecisive between "carrots" and "sticks" or have already considered zero tariffs in exchange for Trump withdrawing his decision.
Nahal Toosi, senior foreign affairs correspondent for Politico, wrote on the website on May 5 that she originally expected governments affected by Trump's tariffs to quickly retaliate collectively, but the reality was just the opposite. Toosi asked, why is that? Are officials in other countries not worried that such a chaotic and cautious global response is too weak to persuade Trump to change course, and may even encourage him to adopt a more aggressive policy?
Some diplomats, economists, and former US officials gave Toosi an answer: because countries around the world are not good at collective action, and many countries believe that if they avoid escalating their fight with Trump, they will have a better chance to gain more benefits. Some used the classic "prisoner's dilemma" to explain the choices currently facing various countries, meaning that when faced with a dilemma, individuals tend to betray the group and make more self-interested decisions.
Leaders of multiple countries are vying to curry favor with Trump
If governments around the world join forces and strategically strike the US economy in a clever way to make the US feel pain, would it make Trump think twice? "It's a nice theory, but not very realistic," said a foreign diplomat. Each government has its own national interests, and they don't trust that other countries won't stab them in the back during this opportunity.
After Trump announced the "reciprocal tariff," the EU also announced countermeasures. On the 7th local time, the EU Foreign Affairs Council held a ministerial meeting in Luxembourg to formulate strategies for the next phase of trade consultations with the US. After the meeting, Maros Sefcovic, the EU Commissioner responsible for trade and economic security, announced that the EU will implement the first round of countermeasures against the US starting April 15, and the second round starting May 15.
However, it is worth noting that there is no consensus within the EU on which products to target and what tools to use for their countermeasures. France, Germany, and Spain advocate leaving no option off the table, while Ireland and Italy, due to significant impacts on related industries, are cautious about escalating trade tensions.
On April 7 local time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference at EU headquarters. Visual China
"The European Commission plans to impose up to 25% tariffs on various American products, he holds an 'olive branch' in one hand and an anti-coercion tool in the other." Politico EU reported on the 7th that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen clearly stated in Brussels that the EU is offering a "zero-zero" tariff solution for American industrial products, hoping to negotiate first with the US.
Toosi said that many countries are still trying to understand the details of Trump's tariffs, but they have accepted the fact that Trump will levy tariffs on the world in some way. Therefore, they are also seeking negotiations to reach a better agreement than other countries.
"I can't be the last person to reach an agreement with Trump, because if I am the last one, then I will get the short end of the stick." An anonymous diplomat said, "If I am the first to reach an agreement, then this might be the most advantageous thing, compared to other countries, I will do better. Therefore, my trade losses will be relatively less."
It is precisely out of this consideration that many national leaders have been vying over the past week to please Trump through arranging phone calls, sending delegations to Washington, and proposing zero tariffs, in order to avoid being taxed. The New York Times reported that apart from the EU canceling tariffs on auto and industrial products imported from the US on the 7th, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also personally pleaded with Trump at a White House meeting on the same day. Vietnam's highest leader proposed no tariffs on American goods during a phone call last week, Indonesia is preparing to send a high-level delegation to Washington to "negotiate directly with the US government," and even the small country of Lesotho in southeastern Africa has organized a delegation to go to Washington to protest tariffs on its export products to the US.
The report said that Trump's team gave an inscrutable signal. Trump said that tariffs will continue until the US trade deficit disappears, but at the same time, they seem to enjoy how foreign governments are desperately trying to flatter them to stop the tariffs.
A former official from the Trump administration said that some foreign officials gave him the impression that, although the tariffs were exorbitant, they were milder than expected. This former official said that the affected countries felt they could quietly negotiate in the coming months, make some concessions, possibly in trade, possibly in defense, or in other areas, and then Trump would change his mind.
"There is a reason why China is acting like an exception." Toosi pointed out that China, although a major trading partner of the US, is different from Mexico and Canada in that China is also a major competitor of the US. China knows that it has many cards to play, which may be why it dares to take countermeasures.
In response to Trump's announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" on the 2nd, China "fired 11 arrows" swiftly and decisively on the 4th, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US imports starting at 12:01 p.m. on April 10.
This made Trump "lose it completely," and he ranted on his self-created social media platform "Truth Social" on the 4th. On the 7th local time, Trump threatened that if China does not cancel the 34% retaliatory tariff, he will impose an additional 50% tariff on China. His threat was firmly opposed by China's Ministry of Commerce. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said on the 8th that the so-called "reciprocal tariff" imposed by the US is groundless and a typical example of unilateral bullying. The countermeasures taken by China are to safeguard its own sovereignty, security, and development interests, as well as maintain normal international trade order, which are entirely justified actions. Threatening to escalate tariffs on China is wrong and again exposes the extortionist nature of the US side, which China absolutely refuses to accept. If the US insists on going down this path, China will certainly see it through to the end.
Toosi said that Trump doesn't believe in the prophecy that "if he makes crazy moves, the sky will fall," because his previous crazy actions didn't cause the sky to collapse, at least not completely.
Many outrageous things Trump did during his first term did not bring serious consequences to the US. When he implemented visa restrictions and travel bans, few countries took serious reciprocal measures against Americans. His recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital did not lead to war in the Middle East. His decision to withdraw the US from the Iran nuclear deal and reinstate sanctions on Iran, which had been exempted under the Iran nuclear deal, did not prompt Tehran to immediately develop nuclear weapons. Toosi pointed out that this made Trump feel that he could try or even disrupt any system without punishment.
Toosi said that all these decisions come at a cost, and perhaps it will take years before the consequences of Trump's actions become apparent. While countries debate how to respond to Trump's tariffs, the ones who suffer the most may not be Trump himself, but rather his Republican colleagues, especially members of Congress who have the ability to block and repeal these tariffs. They will eventually feel enough voter pressure and the decreasing savings, and will take action against the president.
"Even if that day comes earlier than expected, one thing is certain: one of the biggest costs of Trump's trade war is the loss of trust by other countries in the US as a stable and reliable pillar of global trade."
This article is an exclusive contribution by Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7490858698383639076/
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