Belarus still hopes for reconciliation with the West but is prepared for various developments.

"Dad" AI Guards "Hazel": Lukashenko Calls on Europe Not to Make a Foolish Mistake on Sanctions

Belarus still hopes for reconciliation with the West, but is prepared for all kinds of developments

(Photo caption: President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko speaking at the third Minsk Eurasian Security International Conference.)

Commentators: Vladimir Blinov (Владимир Блинов), Vsevolod Shimov (Всеволод Шимов)

On October 28, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said in a speech at the third Minsk Eurasian Security International Conference that he was willing to "extend an olive branch" to Western countries.

Specifically, he proposed: ban sanctions against food and medicines; protect key international infrastructure; solve the migration crisis (he emphasized that the West should "handle it themselves"); include the entire Eurasian continent in the "Digital Neighbors" framework—because "unregulated competition" is turning artificial intelligence into weapons.

"We do not believe we are responsible for the deterioration of relations with the West and some Western countries, but we are willing to extend our hand," Lukashenko said, adding that this "is not the hand of a beggar, but the hand of a partner with its own dignity."

Seemingly to confirm this statement, Belarus's presidential press secretary Natalia Esmont revealed that the "Oreshnik" missile system will be deployed in Belarus in December 2025, entering combat readiness status.

Does this mean that Minsk is showing a "friendly gesture" while also preparing to "show muscle"? What is the significance of Lukashenko's statement about establishing communication?

"Lukashenko seems to be shifting the blame for the deterioration of relations onto the West while expressing a willingness to dialogue, but he clearly knows not to expect much from it," believes Vsevolod Shimov, a consultant to the President of the Baltic Institute of Russia. "But the official position is clear—Belarus supports peace and dialogue. If you want to talk, we will negotiate; if not, that is your problem and fault."

SP: Let's analyze one by one. To improve relations, he proposed to ban sanctions against food and medicines. But now, sanctions have become a preferred tool for pressure from the West—The EU has imposed 19 rounds of sanctions on Russia, and is currently discussing the 20th round...

Shimov: Removing sanctions is one of the core demands of Minsk to normalize relations. However, although the US has shown some relaxation in this regard (partially lifting sanctions on Belarusian Airlines), the EU has remained silent. At the same time, it is obvious that both sides are conducting some kind of dialogue on this issue.

In August this year, it was reported that the Swiss railway company Stadler had resumed its business operations in Belarus. Although Switzerland later denied this claim, it confirmed that negotiations were ongoing. Perhaps under the mediation of the Vatican, relevant discussions are being conducted—now the Vatican may have become the main channel for communication between Belarus and the EU.

SP: What do you think about protecting key international infrastructure and cooperation in the field of artificial intelligence?

Shimov: Mentioning international infrastructure is likely to refer to the "Belt and Road" transportation routes—previously, the route was interrupted for a week due to Poland's unilateral closure of the border. Belarus highly values this route, which has now become an indispensable choice for transcontinental trade between China and Europe.

Regarding artificial intelligence, Belarus has been developing IT industry clusters within the country ("High-tech Parks") for many years, and has tried to position itself as an IT country. However, after the implementation of sanctions from 2020 to 2022, many companies operating in Belarus left, transferring employees mainly to Lithuania and Poland. Despite this, Belarus continues to promote development in this area, obviously also expecting to resume cooperation.

SP: The migration crisis is another separate issue. What solutions can Lukashenko offer to Europe?

Shimov: This refers to the local border crisis between Belarus and Lithuania, Poland—Lithuania and Warsaw accuse Belarus of organizing illegal migrant smuggling, and use this as an excuse to close most border crossings (Lithuania has now completely closed the border). Obviously, this is not a significant issue in the overall context of Europe, but Warsaw and Vilnius are deliberately exaggerating it.

SP: According to the latest news, the United States seems to be intending to improve relations with Belarus. Trump has given a positive evaluation of Lukashenko, while Europe is still implementing sanctions... Is the EU still hoping for Lukashenko to step down?

Shimov: Yes, in this regard, Trump's approach is more flexible than the EU's. Among European countries, Hungary and Slovakia still maintain contact with Belarus. In addition, the role of the Vatican is worth mentioning. In 2025, the diplomatic rank of Belarus in the Vatican has been upgraded, and the embassy of Belarus in the Vatican has officially opened. Recently, Cardinal Claudio Guglielmetti also visited Belarus, attended the 100th anniversary celebration of the Pinsk Catholic Diocese, and met with Lukashenko.

SP: Lukashenko said that in the new world order, the EU should play an important role. Theoretically, what expectations might Minsk have for Brussels?

Shimov: I think this is more of a diplomatic expression. Objectively speaking, a strong and continuously expanding EU toward the borders of Belarus and Russia is not beneficial to Minsk and Moscow. On the contrary, a fragmented Europe—with powerful national governments and regional alliances—is more in line with our interests. This can provide space for diplomatic maneuvering and generally reduce geopolitical tensions, helping to build more constructive relationships.

"Lukashenko's proposals should not be seen as specific action plans. In fact, this is just a routine speech aimed at showing 'the responsibility for the current situation escalation lies with the West, not us,' " says Vladimir Blinov, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences and Mass Communication, State Financial University of the Russian Federation. "The statements of the president of Belarus should be understood philosophically, reflecting the attitude of 'we are not like this by nature, but circumstances make us so.' At the same time, some of his proposals could indeed attract the interest of Europe."

"For example, cooperation in the field of artificial intelligence—the field requires the development of common methods and standards, because AI is used globally, but 'what is included in the cognition of the machine' involves the moral底线 and commercial interests of developers."

SP: Is there a possibility of improving relations between Minsk and Europe?

Blinov: Europe is under the control of globalists, who have a very negative attitude towards Lukashenko and Putin. Unless Belarus abandons its alliance with Russia, there should be no expectation of any easing of relations with Europe. But considering that Russia has deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus, providing security for our common border, it is obviously unreasonable for Lukashenko to abandon the alliance relationship.

SP: After Lukashenko made his speech, his press secretary immediately announced that Belarus would deploy the "Oreshnik" missile system into combat readiness this December. Do you think this is just a coincidence?

Blinov: The deployment of the "Oreshnik" missile system in Belarus will add more variables to the relationship between Minsk and Europe.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566581296017818121/

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