[Source/Observer Network by Shao Yun] The "Tariff Big Stick Law" wielded recklessly and without mercy by US President Trump is eroding trust among allies. A sarcastic scene has followed, as the US, which once hyped up "decoupling" and "de-risking" from China, is now hearing calls for its own "de-risking" from allies.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on the 13th, Trump initiated a trade war with China, expecting allies to help him deal with this long-term geopolitical power struggle. However, whether it's European partners who were previously closer to China's strategy or Asia-Pacific partners geographically close to China and reliant on US defense, they are choosing to distance themselves. Officials and experts cited in the report said that the disruption of the "mutual dependence relationship" between China and the US has caused geopolitical risks to spill over, but many do not believe that the US will ultimately come out on top.
On the 14th, William Matthews, senior researcher of the Asia-Pacific Program under Chatham House, wrote an article in Nikkei Asia, calling on the UK, EU, Japan, and others to quickly "de-risk" against the US in critical technology fields such as financial systems and artificial intelligence (AI). Although the article still portrays dependence on China as a so-called "threat," it argues that the risk brought by the uncertainty of the US is much greater. The article urges US allies not to blindly follow the US in "containing China," but rather to jointly build their own "strategic irreplaceability."
Local time on April 2, 2025, Washington D.C., USA, Trump announced the launch of the new "Liberation Day" tariff policy at the White House. Visual China.
Now be an ally of the US? "Born in the wrong time"
It is known that US Treasury Secretary Bessent recently urged about 70 countries engaged in tariff negotiations to confront China "as a whole" with the US. Other US officials also encouraged countries to "jointly" obstruct China's technological and trade development. However, the report points out that the problem lies in the fact that many European and Asian countries are now unsure if they are still allies of the US. After all, Trump's initial executive order imposed "reciprocal tariffs" on many countries, regardless of whether they were allies, opponents, or others.
"Friends, allies, and enemies are treated equally, with no respect, everything has become a zero-sum game." Jeppe Kofod, former Danish Foreign Minister and Member of the European Parliament, said, "This is a crazy era."
The Wall Street Journal said that the shock caused by this "indiscriminate attack" and the practice of quietly exempting approximately 20 categories of imported products, including smartphones and laptops, from "reciprocal tariffs" by US Customs on the night of the 11th have exacerbated concerns: how reliable is the US under Trump's leadership?
The report noted that the EU, which had increasingly aligned its China policy with the US, did not move closer to the US stance after Trump imposed additional tariffs on China. Instead, voices calling for a reversal of the EU's China policy are growing louder. Shortly after Trump imposed additional tariffs on China, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke with Chinese officials. On the 11th, the European Council spokesperson confirmed that the timing of the next China-EU summit was being coordinated and is expected to take place in July. The new media under CCTV, "Yu Yuan Tan Tian," disclosed on the 13th that contact had begun between the Chinese and European teams regarding price commitments for electric vehicles.
From October 10 to 11, Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez visited China, calling for Europe to reconsider its relationship with China while adapting to the new reality before his visit. Bessent then condemned Spain's consideration as "self-inflicted harm," and Luis Planas, Spain's Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food, responded by saying that Spain not only hopes to continue maintaining good trade relations with China but also wishes to expand them.
In the view of this American media outlet, if Europe improving relations with China has the intention of containing Russia, then the Asia-Pacific countries, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia, are also beginning to adapt to the new reality that "American friendship is not taken for granted." The report said that due to these countries' reliance on US support for defense, they are even less willing to publicly criticize the Trump administration.
"Now is actually the worst time to be an ally of the US because Trump and his team think allies can hurt them more than adversaries." Titi Nan Pongsudhirak, professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, said, "In the short term, the US may still be able to be tough, and countries will have to give in; but in the medium to long term, the US is alienating its partner countries. Trump has given China a great opportunity."
In the opinion of former Australian Prime Minister Turnbull, it is premature to declare the end of the US-Australia alliance system. Australia and the US will still continue to share interests. However, he also admitted that in the future, Australia and the US may not "share values" as they used to, and the relationship between the US and its allies has been disrupted by the US itself. Turnbull's term overlapped with Trump's first presidency, and their relationship was once very tense. In 2017, they had a fierce argument over the US-Australia refugee resettlement agreement.
Experts in the West said that governments in Asia and other regions are concerned that the conflict between China and the US in the trade sector may escalate and spill over into the military field. "During the period of competition between China and the US, economic ties have always been a stabilizer in the increasingly tense bilateral relationship." Robert Ward, director of the Geoeconomic and Strategic Affairs Department at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and chairman of Japan studies, said, "In the past, there existed a symbiotic relationship between the two countries. Now, this relationship has been overturned."
Submit to US coercion to "contain China"? "Would be a mistake"
However, in the face of the US continuously dismantling its own alliance network, many do not expect the US to have a winning chance. Ettore Sequi, former Italian Ambassador to China, believed that Trump's decision to delay the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days on most countries after a large sell-off of US debt indicates his susceptibility to market fluctuations. Before the midterm elections next year, he will face more political pressure at home.
The Wall Street Journal borrowed a metaphor from Shen Shiwei, a CGTN reporter and special research fellow at Zhejiang Normal University African Research Institute, to describe the difference in foreign policies between China and the US: "The US is building walls, while China is building bridges." The report pointed out that now, the largest trading partner for most countries is China, not the US. For example, Australia's exports to the US are only 15% of its exports to China.
"It is very difficult, if not impossible, to sever these tight economic ties to please a US government that changes policies almost every day."
The report noted that a more crucial point is that Trump questioned the value of NATO and Asian defense treaties and directly linked trade concessions with security cooperation. Bernard Guetta, a member of the European Parliament, believed that if the US does not change its current course, over time, a comprehensive political alliance between China and Europe might form.
"China's issue exists today because the new US administration has not made any friendly gestures to the EU but has instead made uncomfortable and unsettling gestures." Guetta predicted that as the international order changes in the post-Trump era, Europe will have to seek balance between Russia and the US, and only China can provide such a balancing force.
Jeremy Shapiro, director of the US program at the European Council on Foreign Relations and former US diplomat, criticized the US for moving away from what was originally a "quite effective" alliance system for US allies. "I think, in the end, they will no longer be allies of the US, meaning that since they are part of this system, we will no longer get anything from them."
"Allies should 'de-risk' from the US," William Matthews, senior researcher of the Asia-Pacific Program under Chatham House, wrote an opinion article titled "Allies Should De-risk from the US" on the Nikkei Asia website on the 14th, urging Eurasian countries to quickly reassess their dependence on the US, especially in the digital technology fields that underpin modern state operations.
"Unfortunately, for the US allies, the risk brought by technical dependence on a transaction-oriented America is far greater than the risk of depending on China." Matthews mentioned that Trump previously suspended commercial satellite image services to Ukraine to pressure the Ukrainian side into ceasefire negotiations. "Imagine if in the future, Washington's decision is not to withdraw satellite images but temporarily suspend access to Microsoft Office licenses, Amazon cloud services, or Visa payment systems. The impact of dependence on American companies' technology would begin to show."
Matthews said that blindly following the US to "contain China" out of fear of coercion or illusions that the US will abandon great power politics would be a mistake. He suggested that US allies set long-term strategic goals to reduce dependence on both American and Chinese technologies simultaneously, pool resources from multiple countries, and establish "strategic irreplaceability" in global supply chains, similar to ASML's semiconductor lithography machines. Additionally, develop alternative products in key areas such as office software, fintech, social platforms, and AI.
Replicate the US "alliance system"? China avoids falling into the trap
In contrast to the increasingly unpredictable and even completely capricious US government, China is shaping itself as a supporting force for stability. The Wall Street Journal discovered on the 13th that unlike Washington, China did not ask countries to choose sides.
"No country is that naive; they are always 'hedging.' The idea that countries must choose sides between China and the US is completely wrong and will never happen. People are now taking sides based on issues rather than countries." Zhou Bo, researcher at the Center for Strategic and Security Studies of Tsinghua University and retired Air Force Major General, told The Wall Street Journal.
The report believes that although US allies in Asia and Europe may not fully embrace China due to Trump's policies, the US's new zero-sum worldview and arbitrary decision-making have already led many allies to seek risk hedging - after all, respectful cooperation is far more attractive than the US's "tribute" demands.
The report mentioned that last December, for the 43 least developed countries that established diplomatic relations with China, China implemented a preferential tax rate of zero for 100% of their tariff items, including 33 African countries. By comparison, some of the highest tariffs initially imposed by Trump targeted some of the poorest African countries, such as Madagascar and Lesotho. Additionally, Michael Langley, commander of the US Africa Command, recently testified in Congress that China has started replacing the US in some key projects previously funded by the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
Kola Karim, one of Nigeria's top entrepreneurs and chairman of Shoreline Group, said that the collateral damage of the trade war is felt more deeply in Africa than in most other places. "This is a huge chaos." Karim said, "If a conflict breaks out on the African continent a year from now, who will listen to the US? If you cut all this, you are sending a message: you don't care."
The Wall Street Journal quoted Derek Grossman, public policy professor at the RAND Corporation Public Policy Institute and former US intelligence official, with concern: "The more we disrupt the international order, especially our allies and partners, the more they will need to find alternatives... and really, there is no alternative, China is the main alternative."
However, Chinese experts pointed out that in fact, China does not seek to replicate Washington's global alliance system, partly because China has learned lessons from the US's excessive expansion. It is reported that Zhou Bo said, "China's space is certainly larger now, but China will try to fulfill its responsibilities in its own way. This is not about filling this vacuum because if you try to fill it, you will fall into a trap."
Gao Zhikai, deputy director of the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) headquartered in Beijing, also said that China will continue to do the right thing. "China wants to tell the world that trade will drive the development of all humanity, and each country needs to find its own development path. No one wants to marginalize the US, but now the US is isolating itself from the rest of the world."
This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493090286634156585/
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