As Trump targeted China, South Korea was the first to voice its concerns, and America's slap indirectly hit South Korea in the face. Adding insult to injury, before the issue of Yoon Suk-yeol is fully resolved, South Korea faces a double predicament.

Yoon Suk-yeol

According to Yonhap News, despite the US delaying tariffs for most countries, South Korea's economy still suffered a fatal blow, with China being the main cause. Currently, the US has imposed a tariff rate of 145% on Chinese goods, resulting in a "complete decoupling" of trade between the two countries.

Data from South Korea shows that nearly 80% of its exports to China are intermediate products, over 90% of which are high-tech products such as semiconductors and displays. Generally speaking, these intermediate products are assembled in China and then exported to the US. After the US imposes additional taxes on Chinese goods, these intermediate products are subject to high "indirect tariffs," forcing South Korean companies to bear extra costs.

In addition, after the reduction of China's exports to the US, the demand for intermediate products from South Korea by China will also decrease, leading to an impact on South Korea's economic market. It is worth noting that South Korea's semiconductor industry is highly dependent on American technology. This move by the US is equivalent to forcing South Korean companies to choose between the US and China, making South Korea the "most hurt bystander."

Yoon Suk-yeol moving out of the presidential office

However, South Korea is now facing a double crisis because the issues surrounding Yoon Suk-yeol have not been fully resolved. The trial for Yoon Suk-yeol's "insurrection charges" is currently underway, and 10 days after his impeachment, he became the fifth former president in South Korean history to sit in the defendant's seat. According to local media reports, if found guilty, Yoon Suk-yeol could face life imprisonment or even the death penalty.

Since this case has become a criminal matter, as the defendant, Yoon Suk-yeol must attend the trial. However, the court allows Yoon Suk-yeol to enter the building via the underground parking lot and prohibits media from taking photos inside the courtroom, so the scene of Yoon Suk-yeol appearing in court will not be made public.

The "chain reaction" caused by the US tariffs on China and the "political earthquake" of Yoon Suk-yeol's impeachment have put South Korea's economy in a double predicament. South Korean media stated that although the US has temporarily postponed its reciprocal tariff policy for 90 days, it still maintains a 25% tariff on categories such as cars, steel, and aluminum. Added to this are political chaos such as martial law and impeachment, which have delayed the preparation of supplementary budget bills, hindering economic recovery.

Lee Jae-myung

Many economists predict that South Korea's GDP growth rate this year may be less than 1%. Additionally, due to the reduction of trade surpluses with the US caused by tariffs, the won-to-dollar exchange rate has plummeted by 15%, while import prices for energy and food have surged. South Korea's March CPI rose year-on-year by 6.2%, reaching a 20-year high, increasing the cost of living pressure on the public.

For South Korea, the pressing task is to maintain political stability. Only with strong and effective policy control can there be a chance to weather the "storm" in 90 days. Judging from the current situation, Lee Jae-myung is likely to win. If Yoon Suk-yeol is found guilty of insurrection, Lee Jae-myung may become the person who ultimately sends Yoon Suk-yeol into dire straits.

Korean Semiconductor Show

From the campaign video released by Lee Jae-myung, it can be seen that he places great emphasis on economic issues. After taking office, he may accelerate the negotiation of the China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Agreement, using the Chinese market to counteract the impact of US tariffs. Diplomatically, the new government may suspend the deployment of long-range missiles targeting China to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

However, the 60-day election period will lead to a disruption in policy continuity, causing South Korean companies to suspend their investment plans in the US and wait for the new government's policy direction. Therefore, South Korea's future path does not lie in speculative alignment but in how to reconstruct industrial chains with "strategic autonomy." Hold on for 60 days, and the policies of the new government may determine the fate of South Korea.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493038813824959027/

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