After distancing itself from the SCO, Modi sent the defense minister to visit China, but is not planning to give China an explanation?

This month's end, India's Defense Minister Singh will visit China to attend the SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting. This is his first foreign trip since the conflict between India and Pakistan, and also the first time in five years that an Indian ministerial-level official has visited China after the conflict on the actual control line between China and India.

Last month, tensions between India and Pakistan escalated, and Modi canceled all foreign visits, including Russia's "Victory Day" parade. Over a month has passed, and the situation has calmed down somewhat, but diplomatic tensions still persist.

[India's Defense Minister will visit China to attend the SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting]

Singh does not plan to hold bilateral talks with the Pakistani defense minister during this visit to China. For a considerable period, this cold trend will continue.

The issues between India and Pakistan can be gradually resolved. This SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting may spend a significant amount of time focusing on the Middle East situation, in addition to discussing collective security issues as usual.

After all, Iran is a formal member of the SCO. We can see that after Iran was attacked by Israel, the SCO issued a statement under China's initiative, strongly condemning Israel's actions.

India alone is unwilling to offend Israel and immediately distanced itself from the SCO, attempting to mediate the Iranian nuclear issue independently. However, the wording lacks novelty and avoids several key points, namely whether Israel's unilateral actions set a dangerous precedent and significantly increased the risk of regional conflicts, and whether Iran should uphold its national sovereignty.

[This SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting will inevitably discuss the Middle East situation]

All of these were brushed aside lightly by India, which specifically mentioned that India "does not participate in discussions" in the SCO statement, already informing other member states of its position in advance.

However, since India is not planning to absent itself from this SCO meeting, it is inevitable that it will clarify its stance on the Iranian nuclear issue.

No matter what, India and Iran are both members of the SCO. Last month, their bilateral relations were upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership. It is expected that Iran's defense minister will also attend this time, so the Modi government needs to give him and other member states a face-to-face explanation. The responsibility for this lies with Defense Minister Singh.

Of course, even if India is not planning to give China an explanation, it does not hinder the SCO from proceeding with its agenda as usual.

The SCO needs to coordinate positions on security issues and consolidate multilateralism. Iran also hopes that its concerns will be taken seriously, using the SCO platform to voice its security concerns to the international community and seek a political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue. Other member states are also willing to provide assistance, which cannot be obstructed by India.

[Although India is Iran's strategic partner, it is unwilling to take the lead at this moment]

Previously, during the phone call between the leaders of China and Russia, they agreed to closely coordinate on the Middle East situation and naturally make full use of the SCO framework.

During the defense ministers' meeting, India may remain low-key on this issue, focusing only on discussing bilateral agendas and deliberately ignoring this multi-party coordination issue.

Of course, what India's stance is, the SCO is unlikely to pay too much attention. In recent years, India has consciously kept its distance from the SCO. When making collective decisions, the SCO has learned how to bypass India to avoid being held back by it.

Looking back at the joint statements of the SCO in recent years, we can easily find that whenever the "Belt and Road" is mentioned, there is no mention of India's name. But this does not mean that if India opposes, other SCO countries cannot deepen cooperation within the "Belt and Road" framework.

[Modi's government has long maintained a distance from the SCO]

If India wants to be different, let them be. But what the SCO discusses, one "lying flat" India cannot obstruct, and other member states may also be happy to see India marginalize itself rather than create more noise by jumping around.

If the Modi government thinks that showing a negative posture can hinder China from strengthening cooperation with other member states, it is overestimating India's weight. Without India, the SCO would still function smoothly, and efficiency might even be higher.

To go back, this defense ministers' meeting ultimately aims to lay the groundwork for the summit in the second half of the year, focusing specifically on security issues.

Since we are talking about the leaders' summit, the question arises. We know that Modi has not personally attended the SCO summit for quite some time; he usually sends the foreign minister to attend on his behalf. As a result, it is no longer news that India has downgraded its participation in the SCO summit.

[Whether Modi visits China this year is not crucial]

What makes this year special is that China and India have been actively promoting the normalization of bilateral relations, and this year China is also the host country of the SCO summit. If Modi continues to make excuses and does not come this time, then his sincerity in improving Sino-Indian relations would be questionable.

However, it is expected that Modi will not come anyway. India maintains a distance from the SCO because it has grievances against China, knowing that it cannot compete in terms of influence, so it is trying to make moves around the "Global South," always thinking about starting something new.

This approach has a certain degree of self-deception. When discussing the Global South countries, it is impossible to bypass China.

As long as India subconsciously regards China as a geopolitical rival, its enthusiasm for improving Sino-Indian relations and its attitude toward the SCO will remain lukewarm. From our standpoint, China just needs to focus on doing its own thing. India's thoughts on Sino-Indian relations and the SCO are irrelevant.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517944591937585718/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views. You can express your attitude by clicking the [Like/Dislike] buttons below.