The extent of the memory price increase this year can be seen in the following chart. This data is only up to November 5, 2025, but in fact, the market continued to rise in November, and the situation is even more alarming than on November 5.

The next chart shows that 16GB DDR4 has increased by 743%, and 8GB DDR4 has increased by 628%. It is predicted that by the end of 2025, the price of 16GB DDR4 will rise by more than 800%, while the price of 8GB DDR4 will rise by more than 700%.

By comparison, the price increases for the more mature DDR3 and the more advanced DDR5 are smaller, with DDR4 experiencing the most significant increase.

Why is this happening? The reason is that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron announced at the beginning of the year that due to the popularity of DDR5 and HBM, and because DDR4 is a mature product that has been on the market for over 10 years, they planned to reduce DDR4 production, and even stop producing DDR4 by the end of 2025, shifting their focus to DDR5 and HBM.

However, DDR4 still has a large demand. After hearing the news, prices immediately rose, and factors such as channel stockpiling, manufacturers holding back supply, and increased market demand caused DDR4 prices to keep rising.

After seeing the sharp rise in DDR4 prices, Samsung and SK Hynix no longer had the same confidence, and they did not mention the message that they would definitely stop producing DDR4 by the end of 2025.

Recently, it was finally confirmed that Samsung and SK Hynix have changed their minds. First, SK Hynix officially announced the delay of DDR4's production shutdown, planning to review it by the end of 2026, and also increased the DDR4 capacity in its Wuxi factory in China to take on more orders.

Samsung also stated that it would not stop producing DDR4 in 2026, and will continue to maintain stable DDR4 supply. Although it will not significantly increase production, it certainly will not reduce it.

Only Micron continues to insist that it will no longer produce DDR4 memory in 2026, and Micron itself has started to focus more on enterprise products, reducing its attention on consumer products.

Evidently, after seeing the huge profit from the sharp rise in DDR4 prices, Samsung and SK Hynix have gone back on their word, and the so-called shutdown of DDR4 production has become a joke.

Naturally, this is understandable. With DDR4 memory being so expensive now, the profit is very high. Why would they stop producing it? Going back on one's word is just a small matter when it comes to making money.

Additionally, Samsung and SK Hynix dare not let the Chinese market take over the entire DDR4 market.

If Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron stop manufacturing DDR4, then the largest manufacturer of DDR4 may be Chinese companies like Changxin and Nanya.

In particular, Changxin has become the biggest competitor of Samsung and SK Hynix. Currently, Changxin's market share is already third globally, as shown in the following chart, with a 5% share in the third quarter, second only to Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron.

If Changxin sells more DDR4, it will make more money. With more money, if Changxin invests in R&D, improves technology, and increases production, it could compete with Samsung and others for the market, which would put Samsung and SK Hynix under pressure.

Therefore, Samsung and SK Hynix dare not give up this profitable business and hand it over to Chinese companies, allowing them to grow and compete against them. For this reason, it is estimated that Samsung and others will not stop production.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7588411056293151273/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.