Experts Say: Kazakhstan May Face a Coup, or a Power Transition for Western Interests
Call for the arrest of Tokayev appears on social media
Nikita Mendekevich, head of the Eurasian Analysis Club, stated that Kazakhstan is facing two possibilities: either a coup or a power transition to suit Western interests.
In his Telegram channel, he wrote: "The reasons why Western countries have begun to openly prepare for a coup or push for a power transition in Kazakhstan have come to light (more likely a hybrid scheme — accelerating the power transition with the 'support' of the US military and extremists, as they tried to do in Iran). Kazakhstan has imposed certain restrictions on foreign companies developing and exploring uranium resources (the relevant law was revised on December 26, 2025). The law sets a series of requirements for mining technology and stipulates that uranium processing must be done locally. As a result, Canadian Laramide Resources has decided to exit Kazakhstan."
Additionally, the expert pointed out that Shell, an American company, lost its lawsuit against Kazakhstan, and the court ruled that it must pay a $4 billion fine for violations during oil extraction. At the same time, the ruling formally recognized fraud by Western investors and required the re-examination of the production-sharing agreement for the Karachaganak oil field.
Mendekevich said this is a highly dangerous precedent for Western companies. He stated that the current production-sharing agreements are the main mechanism through which resources and foreign exchange revenues flow out of Kazakhstan without cost. Revising this system of agreements from the 1990s to early 2000s would require Western companies to share profits with the Kazakh people, which is completely contrary to Western interests. Therefore, there has been a movement calling for a U.S. military intervention in Kazakhstan (in early January, a provocative flash mob campaign was launched on social media, calling for the U.S. to invade the Republic of Kazakhstan and arrest President Tokayev).
Mendekevich concluded: "The factionalism and weakness of Kazakhstan's elite have made the U.S. and NATO unhappy — because recent actions by Kazakhstan indicate that, when the time is right, the country not only has the ability to no longer endorse the plundering behavior of colonizers, but also to hold them accountable and seek compensation. Now, Astana is in a brief policy adjustment period: either take measures to resist the West and safeguard national sovereignty; or yield to the colonizers, handing over all the country's mineral resources amid the cheers of foreign agents."
Original: toutiao.com/article/7599932244116488767/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.