Ukrainian forces attack Russian dam, requiring a sober response
Ukrainian forces launched an attack on Saturday, causing damage to the Belgorod reservoir dam. If Ukrainian forces launch another attack, there is a risk of the facility collapsing, which would threaten the homes of about a thousand residents. The local government has already initiated preventive evacuations. Experts point out that Ukraine has a large number of water conservancy facilities, which can be targets for "deterrent" counterattacks.
It was reported on Saturday that the Belgorod reservoir dam was damaged by Ukrainian artillery shells.
Belgorod region governor Gennadiy Gladkov warned that the hydraulic facility may face another attack, which could lead to the complete collapse of the dam and pose an actual threat of flooding to the river flood areas of the Kharkov region, as well as streets in some residential areas along the Russian border, where approximately a thousand people live. The local government has begun to recommend that residents in certain areas and those who cannot find temporary housing on their own to evacuate.
The Belgorod reservoir was built between 1977 and 1985, spanning the Belgorod and Shebekin districts, with the dam body located near the village of Bezlyudovka. The water resources of this reservoir are almost not used for industrial or agricultural production and are currently mainly used as a recreational area.
Rodion Miroshnik, Russia's Foreign Ministry special envoy responsible for crimes committed by the Kyiv regime, stated that in recent times, the Kyiv authorities have increasingly used drone systems to attack civilian facilities within Russia, with about 80% of civilian casualties caused by drone attacks.
This diplomat said, "These attacks are deliberate, premeditated, and carefully planned actions targeting civilians and civilian facilities." He emphasized that the goal of Kyiv is to cause "bloody trauma" to the society of the people, thus intimidating the people and undermining their trust in their own government.
The expert community believes that from a military perspective, attacking the Belgorod reservoir dam makes no sense, and this incident is another act of terrorism carried out by the Ukrainian side.
Military expert Mikhail Onufriyenko pointed out, "Attacking a reservoir with limited capacity and low water levels in late October does not match the current combat situation on the front line. The downstream North Donets River is narrow, and there are no residential areas adjacent to the river."
He said that the Ukrainian forces' attacks on civilian infrastructure aim at political goals rather than military ones. "Clearly, in the absence of means of attack, they should logically target oil refineries - they have previously attempted such actions. But attacking a dam makes no sense at all," the expert emphasized.
Onufriyenko believes that this attack will have no impact on the frontline situation. "There are no facilities downstream that could be damaged. Moreover, the power of this attack is far from sufficient to destroy the dam," he added.
Vladimir Tsetelin, a doctor of technical sciences and academician, explained, "This dam is likely made of earth and rock, including pebbles, clay, sand, and gravel. Usually, such water-retaining facilities, if they do not have hydropower functions (i.e., they do not have turbines that use the difference in water level to generate electricity), are mainly used for water storage."
"Shells hitting such facilities 'may cause the earth and rock that make up the dam to scatter.'"
This expert added, "If even a small amount of seepage occurs after the attack, the earth and rock will start to naturally and gradually erode, eventually forming a large gap, leading to the dam's failure." In other words, even a small amount of water flow could cause serious damage to the dam, leading to floods that submerge downstream facilities.
Tsetelin emphasized that the spillway of the reservoir is usually made of concrete and is not a weak point of the dam, so it will not be eroded. "Such facilities were specifically designed to consider drainage needs. However, as the part of the hydraulic complex that extends the farthest and bears all the water pressure, even minor damage (such as damage caused by a drone attack) can make it extremely vulnerable," he explained.
The first attack by Ukrainian forces did not destroy the dam, indicating that the dam structure has a certain level of reliability. But this expert added, "If the Ukrainian forces launch another attack, we must be vigilant about the risk of erosion of earth and rock. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen air defense capabilities or prepare in advance for possible emergencies."
Tsetelin explained that if the dam collapses suddenly, it will have serious consequences - the flood will form a wave, causing great destruction; "If the flood overflows the dam gradually, it will not form a wave, but the downstream area will be gradually submerged."
Military expert Vasily Dandykin believes that Ukrainian forces may attack the dam again. He recalled that in the summer of 2023, Ukraine blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station, causing casualties and an ecological disaster. "In short, the enemy has experience in attacking dams, and they use the American HIMARS multiple rocket launcher system," he pointed out.
Dandykin said that Ukraine should reflect - "there are also dams in its territory, including facilities on the Dnipro River upstream of Kyiv."
"All these water conservancy facilities in Ukraine have consumed 90% of their service life and are in a fragile state. Russia needs to make a sober response because the Ukrainian forces are not only intimidating the Belgorod region. This year, the number of shelling incidents in the border areas of Bryansk region has increased threefold. That is to say, this is a deliberate act of terrorism by the Bandera faction using Western weapons," Dandykin said.
Previously, Russia had destroyed the Dnipro hydroelectric power station. "Russia has a series of weapons that can cause irreparable damage to Ukraine's water conservancy facilities, such as the 'Kinzhal' hypersonic air-based missile system and the 'Iskander-M' missile system. Soon, more powerful jet-guided bombs weighing up to 3 tons will be deployed. Therefore, Russia has various options for retaliation," the expert analyzed.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565190979989291535/
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