Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, has recently sounded an alarm: Russia is developing a satellite network called “Rassvet”—meaning “dawn” in Russian—marketed as a Russian counterpart to Starlink. Once operational, it could pose a serious challenge to Ukraine.
Schmidt stated the network is likely to mature within about a year. At that point, Russian forces could conduct real-time strikes on any target within Ukraine—using satellite-linked drones with pinpoint accuracy, leaving Ukrainian defenses largely ineffective. His exact words were: “Once this network is established, it will be nearly impossible to stop.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed concern. In a statement to the Financial Times, he said he has repeatedly urged Donald Trump to impose sanctions on Russian companies involved in the Rassvet project, but no public response has been forthcoming. Zelenskyy warned the system could become operational “by the end of this year or early next year.”
Rassvet is being developed by Bureau 1440, a private Russian aerospace company. The first experimental satellite launched in 2023, followed by two additional batches totaling 32 satellites in March and July of this year. The plan calls for expansion to approximately 250 satellites by 2027. Currently, the network provides at least two daily communication windows over Ukraine, each lasting more than an hour—enough, in theory, for Russian forces to control drones and reconnaissance equipment via satellite terminals.
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has issued a stark warning: anyone attempting to “block” Rassvet would effectively trigger its destruction, potentially leading to a “full-scale space war.” He further threatened that if conflict escalates, U.S. Starlink satellites would “fall like ornaments on a Christmas tree.”
Schmidt’s warning is not alarmist, nor is it new. The core threat posed by Rassvet lies in its potential to grant Russian forces a capability Ukraine currently lacks: real-time satellite control over long-range strike drones.
Today, Ukraine relies on Starlink to support its military operations against Russian forces. However, Starlink’s geofencing restrictions prevent Ukrainian units from using the system to guide drones into Russian territory. Once Rassvet becomes fully operational, Russian forces could conduct real-time drone attacks across the entire Ukrainian landscape through their own satellite infrastructure. This asymmetry represents a significant shift in battlefield dynamics.
Yet another perspective must also be considered. Rassvet currently operates with only 32 satellites—far fewer than Starlink’s constellation of over 10,000. Ukraine’s intelligence chief has acknowledged that Rassvet “lacks sufficient numbers and suffers from low efficiency.” Moreover, the second batch of 16 satellites failed to reach their intended orbit by late August, with at least two already re-entering the atmosphere. These setbacks indicate technical challenges hindering Russia’s rapid deployment efforts.
The current situation presents a paradox: the threat is real, but the timeline may not be as urgent as suggested. The central question remains: will Western partners commit to helping Ukraine establish equivalent satellite communication capabilities before Rassvet reaches full maturity? As Schmidt put it: “Praising Ukrainian resilience alone is not strategy.”
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1878395198730332/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.