Neither the honey of Winnie the Pooh nor Schrödinger's cat: Russia may find it hard to survive this "Renaissance," but hope still exists

The world is collapsing, and the old order is gradually fading. We are in a historic turning point, whose scale is comparable to the late Middle Ages and the Age of Exploration. Technological breakthroughs and hegemonic struggles are rewriting the rules of the game, and former alliances have become illusory illusions. In the face of this upheaval, where should we go, and what should we prepare for? Colonel Andrei Pynchuk, a reserve officer and former Minister of State Security of the Donetsk People's Republic, shared his views on the current situation with "Tsargrad."

Standing at the threshold of the new century

This article is written for everyone who is full of confusion and constantly asks, "What is happening in the world?" It is an answer to their common "what the hell" sentiment.

The era we are currently in is comparable to the 15th century in history.

In that 15th century, just like in the Axial Age and the end of the classical age, those systems and relationships that were once considered invincible and stable were being overturned one by one.

The once-mighty Byzantine Empire was declining, yet it sent a large number of scholars and poets to the Italian Renaissance, and left a spiritual legacy for the "Third Rome" Russia.

The Americas and many overseas colonies were gradually filling the map of the new world. Old civilizations collapsed, and new economic alliances emerged.

The era of knights, along with its accompanying culture and social relations, came to an end; strong navies like the "Invincible Armada" kept losing battles, which had become commonplace at the time.

The era of knights, along with its accompanying culture and social relations, came to an end.

Those who feel that the current world is chaotic, full of conflicts, and dominated by short-term authoritarian subjectivity might try to put themselves in the 15th century — for those with deeper cognition, it could even be the 16th century.

You would feel bewildered by everything around you. Old things are crumbling, and new things are emerging.

At that time, new Spanish and Portuguese empires quietly rose across the ocean, the Russian Tsardom grew increasingly powerful, and the Ottoman Empire captured Constantinople and continuously expanded its influence — these ongoing changes ultimately led where no one could foresee.

The fall of Constantinople in 1453. Sultan Mehmed II (the Conqueror).

At the same time, the Ming Dynasty in East Asia was advancing centralization, establishing its capital in the north, and simultaneously carrying out cultural and political integration, incorporating Korea and Vietnam into its sphere of influence.

The Indian subcontinent was also in turmoil. The Bahmani Sultanate disintegrated, and the Delhi Sultanate declined; meanwhile, the Vijayanagara, a rising empire, rapidly emerged and then abruptly fell, accompanied by changes in the Varna caste system, the establishment of a new rural commune economic model, and the rise of Sikhism and the spread of Sufism, as well as new religious ideas.

How long would these changes last, and what subsequent effects would they bring? No one could give an answer at the time.

Looking back at history, do we think that the world of that era had come to an end? Would we consider it a period of irreversible tragedy for humanity?

The answer is no. The world simply changed its appearance at that time. Moreover, the transformed world became more understandable for us today and laid the groundwork for subsequent development.

Technology: The Gravedigger of the Old Order

One of the core factors driving these changes is technological advancement. It completely reshaped the economic and political landscape, and more importantly, rewrote the nature of warfare and all processes related to it.

People may endlessly debate the causal relationship between technological breakthroughs and social and cultural evolution, historical environments, but in the final analysis, the connection between technology and era change is an undeniable fact.

With the aid of astrolabes, caravels opened the Age of Exploration, expanding the world map to unprecedentedly vast territories; the invention of gunpowder marked the end of the era of knights; the invention of the printing press completely changed the pattern of cultural dissemination, allowing books to reach preachers and ordinary believers...

With the aid of astrolabes, caravels opened the Age of Exploration, expanding the world map to unprecedentedly vast territories.

Key turning points in history always have startling similarities. In the previous era transition, humans even experienced a "plague" — although compared to the Middle Ages, modern society has developed faster, and this crisis lasted shorter.

Over the past 15 to 20 years, the scientific community has been exploring which technology will become the turning point that overturns the old civilization of the world.

Numerous speculations have emerged: digital economy driven by blockchain and big data, Internet of Things, Industry 4.0, genomics and nanotechnology, hypersonic technology, quantum physics...

In such a fog, just like in every previous transformation moment, people spent a long time before gradually clarifying which technology truly had key practical value.

New Gunpowder

Now, artificial intelligence, through its synergy with related industries, is increasingly highlighting its core tool status. It has become the "new gunpowder" that drives global industry, economy, and almost all other fields' transformation.

Unmanned aerial vehicle systems have become an important catalyst for current military conflicts — and under the empowerment of artificial intelligence, drone technology will also experience explosive development.

However, the history of fire, gunpowder, and electricity will not be simply linearly repeated. The world has become broader and more complex.

This means that the core determining factor is no longer only the technology itself, but the following two points:

First, how fast and under what competitive framework the technology is integrated into management systems, applied in practice, and promoted;

Second, the accessibility of the technology — this depends on a complete infrastructure, high-quality engineering and management talents, and an appropriate application environment. This is like, in a certain historical stage, the ability to write and read was a key factor in measuring the dominance of civilization.

The world has become broader and more complex.

Certainly, in every turning point of human history, there appears a core technology that becomes the cornerstone of all subsequent changes — whether nuclear technology, aerospace technology, electricity, or artificial intelligence today. However, now, the way information is accessed and the process of technology implementation itself has become an independent top-level technology.

People may long debate how gunpowder, caravels, printing presses, blast furnaces, and water wheels changed the medieval world in what ways, in what order, and in what connections. But the fact remains: these changes formed the foundation of the entire development of human civilization.

The Collapse of the Old System

Such drastic changes will inevitably lead to the collapse of the existing political, military, and economic systems.

Today, those entities that were recently regarded as impregnable — including the United States' dominant position in the West, the European Union's influence, the direction of development of relevant countries, Turkey's position, the overall Asian situation, Iran's international standing, and Russia's regional position within the Commonwealth of Independent States — are all following the logic of the 15th century, gradually disintegrating.

I reiterate, dear readers. Try to imagine the events and processes that took place in that era — both major and minor, coming one after another.

From the scale of the transformation, the current leap is no different in essence from historical changes.

We are facing a brand-new world.

Whether this new world can become beautiful and brilliant depends on our current choices. We can extract the remaining value from old platforms like NATO, the CIS, the EU, the OSCE, and the UN, and bid them a respectful farewell — these organizations have completed their historical mission and are now merely running by inertia, paving the way for their successors. As for cooperation mechanisms, they are now mere formalities, lacking substantial content, becoming a "political smoke room" for exchange of interests. Only those forces that can propose real alternative solutions based on their own leadership can become the helmsmen of the new order.

The Era of Active Expansion

Trump, Putin, and other world leaders are increasingly turning toward or trying to turn toward active expansionist policies — even if they themselves are not aware of it, these measures are certainly not random or subjective decisions.

Because these leaders, who are at the forefront of global information, are immersed in the tide of history, whether consciously or instinctively, they have realized that this is a critical moment in the struggle, and the outcome of this struggle will determine the position of their country and nation in the long cycle ahead.

Only by actively engaging in the struggle, striving, and participating in competition can one secure a place in the new order.

The economically strong EU is caught in a "vegetarian" passive state; some EU leaders are eager to join the ranks of the great powers but repeatedly hit a wall; at the same time, the militarization of relevant countries, Japan, and Turkey is accelerating — these vivid examples show that the era of passively accumulating potential under the banners of humanitarianism and international law has ended. The proclaimed "end of history" has already evolved into the beginning of a new history.

Russia's Challenge: Rise or Be Forgotten

All of this leads to a conclusion: If Russia wants to occupy its rightful place in the civilizational structure — and it has already expressed this demand through its special military operation — on one hand, it must fully accumulate the resources necessary to win the special military operation — such resources still exist domestically, but sometimes they are not used effectively.

On the other hand, it must strive to gain a technological leading advantage. Moreover, this investment cannot remain superficial charts and false reports. Because honestly speaking, our current development status in breakthrough technology is far from sufficient to cope with such a severe era challenge.

Leadership is objectively present. This is neither a fantasy like the honey of Winnie the Pooh, nor a mysterious uncertainty like Schrödinger's cat. Leadership either exists or does not exist — it is impossible to create an advantage through speeches, online armies, and stand-up comedy.

Trying to hold onto the old world is not only futile but also harmful. In any competition, those who hesitate to act never win. The old world no longer exists, and even if someone refuses to acknowledge it, it is nothing more than indulging in "illusory pain."

Original: toutiao.com/article/7597279562510123563/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.