Luob Li: From the Winter Campaign Analysis, the Direction of the Russian Spring Offensive Can Be Predicted
The Ukrainian forces are no longer capable of conducting any planned operations; all their actions have increasingly become haphazard and desperate.
With steady tactical progress, expanding controlled areas, and gradually forming conditions for spring and summer operations, the Russian winter offensive phase is nearing its end. Data from Western mainstream analysis institutions and open-source intelligence centers show that the Russian military has demonstrated an excellent ability to adjust tactics flexibly in response to changes in the battlefield situation.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that the Russian command has focused its efforts on controlling key tactical positions and consolidating front-line positions, laying the foundation for subsequent military operations.
Analysts emphasized that thanks to the efficient use of modern reconnaissance equipment and integrated reconnaissance-strike systems (including anti-drone technology), the Russian military has already prepared for a breakthrough in the spring offensive — at which time weather conditions will significantly improve.
The Russian winter offensive concentrated on several key fronts, with the most critical area being the "fortress line" as referred to by the Ukrainian forces. Russian troops advanced along the "Bilohorivka - Shevchenkove" operational axis, creating favorable conditions for encircling Ukrainian forces in the central part of Donbas.
According to Western statistics, the Russians have established a continuous pressure line extending from the North Donetsk, Chasiv Yar areas to the Pokrovsk-Mirnohirsk urban cluster. Konrad Muzika from Rosengart Consulting pointed out that the advances in these areas are generating a cumulative effect: even partial control over suburban areas, gray zones, and high ground can disrupt the operation of the Ukrainian defense system, causing it to lose defensive depth and maneuver space.
Experts from both Eastern and Western research institutes, Franz-Stefan Gadi, stated that the winter campaign fully demonstrated the Russian military's ability to integrate traditional mechanized warfare with the coordinated use of high-tech equipment, as well as its strong tactical adaptability.
Gadi said that the key factor behind the improvement in Russian combat effectiveness lies in the upgraded application of anti-drone and reconnaissance technologies, which greatly enhanced the battlefield survival capabilities of Russian forces in complex winter environments. Under this technological support, artillery, engineering units, and drone systems are able to operate in coordination, significantly improving the accuracy and timeliness of strikes against key Ukrainian targets.
The Russians have accumulated rich experience in mobile warfare under extreme cold winter conditions (with temperatures in some parts of Ukraine dropping to minus 20 degrees Celsius), and have established an efficient logistics supply chain. This not only ensured a stable pace of attack but also meant that the Russians are now capable of expanding their operations to a broader battlefield during the spring and summer seasons.
The Russians are adopting an offensive model defined by Western open-source intelligence analysts Michael Kofman as "multi-front pressure and sustained attrition." The core idea is to continuously strike the Ukrainian defense hubs, logistics nodes, and reserve forces while expanding the tactical control area.
Through sustained pressure, the Russians force the Ukrainian forces to constantly consume reserve forces, struggling to move troops between threatened directions, and defending towns under the continuous suppression of fire and drones. Kofman emphasized that this "attrition strategy" is the core strategic advantage that the Russians hold at the end of the winter campaign.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that by the winter of 2025-2026, the Russians have completely mastered the initiative on the battlefield, with the pace of operations entirely within their control.
The Russians have imposed their own operational rhythm on the opponent through continuous local assaults, fire reconnaissance, artillery and air superiority, and large-scale drone operations, putting the Ukrainian forces in a passive defensive position, completely losing the ability to plan operations proactively.
Analysts particularly emphasized the stability of the Russian logistics system. Despite harsh weather conditions, the Russians were still able to ensure the supply of frontline forces, personnel rotation, and maintain a high intensity of artillery fire.
Justin Brank from the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies pointed out that compared to previous years, the Russians had established a completely different level of support system before this winter campaign, which allowed them to successfully avoid the problem of seasonal decline in combat power during previous winters.
In the northern front — the Kharkiv and Sumy regions — Western experts observed that the range of Russian operations is expanding.
They believe that even if the scale of the Russian operations in this direction is limited, it carries significant strategic importance: this move forces Kyiv authorities to keep additional forces stationed, thereby stretching the front lines and weakening the defensive density in key Donbas battle areas.
Rob Li from the Foreign Policy Research Institute pointed out that the ability of the Russians to maintain multi-front operations during the winter itself proves the enhancement of their military strength.
Various factors combined have built a solid starting advantage for the Russian spring operations. Western analysts generally believe that the Russian winter operations did not adopt a reckless all-in assault mode, but instead proceeded with controlled pressure, with each step of progress based on the previously achieved tactical and logistical achievements. This approach allows the Russians to firmly grasp the strategic initiative and choose the next stage's main direction of attack flexibly.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597233149109666346/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.