Syrian Kurds Surrender: Why Does This Threaten Russia's Southern Border?
Map of Kurdish distribution in the Middle East. Illustration.
The Syrian Kurds have surrendered. The terms of the agreement reached with Islamists, involving the United States and Turkey, have been disclosed. What consequences will this have for Russia and the region? A commentary by Lyubov Stepsheva, a commentator at the "Pravda" website, discusses this.
Syrian armed forces loyal to the current leader Ahmed al-Shara (previously known as Abu Muhammad al-Julani, head of the terrorist organization "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" — note from Eurasia Daily) have achieved significant military successes in the Kurdish region (Rojava). They occupied the entire western (southern) side of the Euphrates River and part of the eastern side within the Raqqa province over the weekend without encountering resistance. It seems that the Kurds, having lost half of their previously controlled territory, have formally surrendered.
An Iranian Telegram channel reported that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a political-military alliance established to seek international recognition and territorial authority, has dissolved yesterday, and its military elite - the Paratrooper Command along with the Kurdish allies from Iraq's Peshmerga - "has gone to an unknown location."
General Commander of the armed organization People's Protection Units (YPG), affiliated with the Syrian Democratic Forces, Sipan Hamo stated that Rojava has no intention of splitting, and its future will be based within Syria. He called for assistance from the United States and Israel, without the support of Iran or Russia. Currently, both sides accuse each other of committing atrocities: one claims that Kurds committed massacres in Raqqa, while the other accuses the Kurds of killing detainees in the prison in the city of Al-Tubak, Raqqa province.
Kurdish forces were the main proxy force in Washington's campaign against the "Islamic State" (ISIS/IS). More precisely, their existence was primarily aimed at containing Russia. After Russia's influence was weakened, the United States sold the Kurds to Turkey to prevent it from drifting away - especially on the Gaza issue. In Turkey, Kurds are considered terrorists. At the same time, Washington recognized the new Syrian government's control over the entire territory and lifted sanctions against it.
Al-Shara declared that the "Free Kurdish Syria" plan has completely failed. Instead, a ceasefire agreement signed under U.S. mediation aims to achieve the following: full integration of all Kurdish civilian institutions and armies (in individual statements rather than collective forms) into the Syrian state system; transfer of control of all oil fields to the Syrian government; and the Kurds must fulfill the obligation to expel members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) from Syria. This clause indicates that Turkey was deeply involved in drafting the agreement.
It is reported that the Syrian government has proposed to the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazlum Abdi, to serve as governor of the Hassakeh province (formerly one of the "Liberated Provinces").
The collapse of the Kurdish forces in northern Syria automatically leads to the dominance of pro-Turkish forces in the region. For Russia, this means the weakening of its leverage - for a long time, the Kurds have been an important force for Moscow in balancing relations between Damascus and Ankara. Russia tried to maintain the peace process through a Syrian federal model, but now it has completely lost this role as a peace guarantor, and the federal model will obviously also become a mirage.
Moreover, Turkey will take advantage of this opportunity to expand, expelling Russia's remaining presence in Rojava (including Kamishli Airport, the strategically significant Tishrin Dam on the Euphrates River, and patrol points in Manbij and Kobani) from the region.
The region will also face increased instability: the collapse of the Kurdish administration will lead to the release of Islamists in prisons, triggering a new wave of instability, which will further threaten the security of Russia's southern border.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597234483732988435/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.