Sharp Encirclement: Russian Forces Circumnavigate Pokrovsk, Threatening Ukrainian Breakthrough to the Dnipro River

ISW: Russian Forces Need Only Liberate 10 Villages on the Border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Gain Operational Maneuverability

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

The East European Research Center (OSW) stated in its latest open-source intelligence report that Russian forces have reached the Kanzanetorets River and have circumvented the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad urban area from the northeast. This threatens the entire Ukrainian logistics supply line in the two-city area, forcing the Ukrainians to divert supplies through alternative routes.

Currently, Russian forces are within less than 10 kilometers of the main supply line of the Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad urban area (extending from Kramatorsk to this point). This means that the Ukrainian forces are likely to be forced to gradually shift their logistics from Pokrovsk to local routes.

Previously, the Ukrainian forces had abandoned the initial main supply route — the M04 highway from Dnipropetrovsk, which was 6-8 kilometers away from the Russian positions — for transporting supplies. Now, both sides are fighting for the New Economic Village — the last settlement on the route from the east to Mirnohrad.

The East European Research Center said that to ensure operational freedom in Donbas, the Russian forces are expanding bridgeheads in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russians continue to push the Ukrainian forces out of the border areas between Pokrovsk and Novoselka.

However, Polish open-source intelligence analysts believe that the Russian forces are unlikely to advance further into the interior of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, at least not before controlling the 10 settlements between Pokrovsk and Novoselka that are still under Ukrainian control in the Donbas region.

These 10 settlements include Udachnoye and Molodetskiye (located west of Pokrovsk, with a road leading to Hryhorivka), Muravka (southwest of the newly liberated Nykolaivka on the "Central" cluster on June 19), Zelenehey, Novokhovatske, Iskra, Mirnoye, Olszynka, Voskresenka (all located west or northwest of Komyr, liberated by the Russians on June 13), and the last one, Kameshova (located west of Novoselka).

Liberating these 10 villages would allow the Russian forces to consolidate their positions along the border of the Donetsk People's Republic and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. After that, the Russian forces will begin advancing into the interior of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, liberating new settlements and the areas between them.

The Russian forces continue to launch attacks on multiple fronts in Donbas, but analysts assess that the battlefield achievements have not changed the overall military situation yet.

Analysts from the East European Research Center believe that this is because the Russian forces are gathering reserves to prepare for a decisive offensive, while the Ukrainian forces are trying to use the breathing space to strengthen their fragile defense.

Polish analysts Andrzej Wiercik and Krzysztof Niedzielski mentioned that the Russian forces used the "Rubicon" Future Drone Technology Center in the priority attack direction in Donbas.

Ukrainian armed forces complained to The New York Times that the arrival of "Rubicon" drone operators became a "turning point." The Russian drones' strikes have made the Ukrainian logistics supply in the area extremely difficult.

Previously, in early 2025, the Russian forces moved the "Rubicon" drone unit to Kursk Oblast, where the operators quickly eliminated the Ukrainian occupation clusters.

Fiber-optic drones were used in the offensive, establishing a 15 to 20 kilometer wide strike zone between the front lines of Russia and Ukraine.

Western open-source intelligence analysts said that "Rubicon" has become a "nightmare" for Ukrainian armed forces. At the same time, this center, directly subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defense, is highly confidential, and its internal structure remains a mystery to the Ukrainian forces.

The East European Research Center stated that the Russian Ministry of Defense is forming five "Rubicon" drone system units, each operating in a cluster within the special military operation area.

Initially, the "Rubicon" units operated in the Sumy-Kursk direction. These units use various types of drones, including "Orlan" loitering munitions, "Lightning" attack drones, fiber-optic drones, and long-range FPV drones.

Some units received specialized training to counter the Ukrainian Air Force. As we have seen, all of this has produced results, with effects hundreds of times greater than the initial efforts of "Rubicon."

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525326560845431337/

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