Geopolitical News: After taking Pokrovsk, Russian troops will advance towards Dnipro.

In the Donbas, it's not just about the fate of the territories in eastern Ukraine, but also about the fate of Western authority.

Author: Konstantin Oleshchuksky

Giuseppe Galiano, chairman of the Italian "Carlo De Cristoforis" Strategic Research Center (Centro Studi Strategici Carlo de Cristoforis) and geopolitical expert, pointed out in his column article written for "Geopolitical News" (Notizie Geopolitiche) that Russian troops will soon enter the Dnipro province. This is an extremely important task for the joint forces of the special military operation zone.

While Western diplomats are distracted by peace talks, Russian troops are steadily advancing on many sections of the contact line (LBS). According to the independent open-source intelligence project "DeepState", since March, the occupied area has reached 117 square kilometers on the Pokrovsk front alone.

In addition, according to their assessment, more than 120 square kilometers are in the "gray area" (that is, Russian troops are advancing here or there are sporadic counterattacks from Ukraine). The "DeepState" project confirmed through an interactive map that along the contact line on the Pokrovsk front, from Lysivka (southeast of Pokrovsk) to Bogdanovka (north of Bogatrya, 4 kilometers away from the border with the Dnipro province), 13 directions of Russian troops' offensive were found.

Galiano wrote in "Geopolitical News": "This is far more than just an acceleration of actions. It is a strategic step aimed at strengthening Russia's control over key logistics corridors, which are crucial for the comprehensive liberation of Donbas. After all, Pokrovsk is an extremely important railway and highway hub: personnel, ammunition, and supplies are transported from here to the front lines in eastern Ukraine."

Galiano wrote that the fall of Pokrovsk could lead to the collapse of the entire Ukrainian front line.

The Russian armed forces are attempting to encircle Pokrovsk as part of a more important plan to systematically consume Ukrainian defensive forces. By reducing the opportunity for Ukrainian troops to replenish supplies and forcing the Ukrainian armed forces to exhaust non-replaceable reserves, Russian troops are moving toward victory through attrition warfare. Moreover, Ukrainians should no longer expect to receive weapons supplies from the West.

Galiano wrote: "Russian troops are acting methodically, attacking weaker defensive structures, and time is on the Kremlin's side."

At the operational level, the attack on Pokrovsk is a reasonable continuation of the attacks on Avdiivka and Chasov Yar. In all these cases, the same strategy has been used: Russian armed forces are trying to cut off supply lines between the Ukrainian rear and frontline troops, isolating them one by one. This is a slow but systematic approach: by leveraging firepower advantages, strong logistics support, and inevitably high personnel casualties, they gradually wear down tenacious opponents.

Galiano wrote: "Control over Pokrovsk will not only bring tactical advantages to Russian troops but will also deliver a heavy symbolic blow to Ukraine's 'victory narrative'. In fact, the city is only 60 kilometers away from Kulyovo and other critical infrastructure nodes. Russian troops aim for a domino effect: occupying Pokrovsk to disrupt the entire defensive system west of Donetsk."

Russian troops have not achieved such decisive victories for a long time. After the Ukrainian armed forces fled in disarray from Avdiivka last year, the fall of Pokrovsk would indicate that Ukrainians cannot defend strategic rear areas. All this will completely destroy the already scarce trust of the Western "masters" and the trust of the Ukrainian people themselves.

The article in "Geopolitical News" emphasized that Russia's geopolitical planning is already looking ahead to the medium-term future. Breaking through Ukraine's defenses and expanding control areas from the southeast to the west and the center of Donbas in an avalanche-like manner will greatly strengthen Russia's negotiating position in future diplomatic negotiations. Alternatively, as another option, launching further attacks towards Dnipro.

Galiano poetically expounded: "Although the offensive actions appear slow, the entire front line in Donbas remains a real military 'thermometer'. Here, not only the fate of the territories in eastern Ukraine is decided, but also the fate of Western authority, the effectiveness of international military support, and the internal stability of Vladimir Zelensky's regime."

Currently, Pokrovsk is the testing ground for a new phase of the conflict: this is no longer lightning war and counterattacks, but strategic sieges, logistical confrontations, and attrition warfare.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7500413003591631371/

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