Reference News, July 30 - According to AFP on July 28, after pledging to increase their own defense spending to please US President Trump at the NATO summit in The Hague, European countries are waiting for Trump's key decision on the future of US military forces in Europe.

Washington is currently assessing its global military deployments - the results will be announced in the coming months - and it is expected that this will lead to a reduction in military deployments in Europe.

This prospect has made American allies nervous, especially as concerns grow that if the war in Ukraine subsides, Russia might attack a NATO country in the coming years.

After the June Hague summit, NATO was immersed in the new goodwill shown by Trump, and officials from the Trump administration also gave encouraging statements, saying they would not leave Europe isolated.

US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Pottinger said: "We agreed not to allow unexpected developments or gaps in Europe's strategic framework." He also said he expects the assessment results to be released in the "late summer and early autumn."

He said: "I have daily conversations with our allies about this process."

Although previous US administrations have considered reducing the scale of military deployments in Europe, Trump has been more determined than his predecessors that the continent should handle its own defense issues.

Marta Mucznik of the International Crisis Group said: "There is every reason to believe that the US will withdraw from Europe. The issue is not whether it will happen, but how quickly it will happen."

When Trump returned to the White House in January this year, many thought he would soon tear a rift in the alliance, which has existed for more than 70 years.

The Pentagon noted that there are nearly 85,000 US military personnel in Europe - this number has fluctuated between 75,000 and 105,000 since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022.

An European diplomat said: "I think it is inevitable that part of the troops will be withdrawn, but I don't think it will be a large-scale adjustment. I think it will be gradual and based on consultations."

Trump's predecessor Joe Biden ordered additional troops to Europe after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Trump's first target is likely to be the remaining forces among these added troops stationed in Europe.

Officials said that recalling the remaining portion of the 20,000 added troops would not excessively weaken NATO's deterrence. However, once Trump starts significantly reducing troop numbers or closing key bases, the alarm bells will ring.

The issue is not just the number of troops stationed, but the fact that allies will find it difficult to replace the US's capabilities in air defense, long-range missiles, and satellite surveillance in the short term.

Jan Leszek of the German Marshall Fund said: "The kind of defense investment that European countries promised at the Hague summit may take many years before it actually translates into real capabilities. So timing is indeed important."

Trump's current more hardline stance toward Russia - and Moscow's refusal to end the Ukraine war as he demanded - may temper Washington's willingness to withdraw troops from Europe.

Leszek said: "At the moment, sending signals of weakness and reducing the US security presence in Europe seems inappropriate."

He also mentioned that during his first presidential term, Trump tried to withdraw troops from Germany but faced repeated setbacks - due to the high costs of troop movements and political resistance in Washington, the plan eventually failed.

Although European diplomats have more confidence in the military assessment than ever before, they admit that nothing is certain regarding this unpredictable president.

Additionally, other issues such as trade negotiations between Washington and the EU could undermine transatlantic relations and disrupt the positive atmosphere.

Another European diplomat said: "It looks positive for now. But if we're wrong and the US starts cutting down on its military presence in Europe from 2026, what can we do at this stage? Honestly, we won't be able to do much." (Translated by Lu Di)

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