【By Observer Net, Yuan Jiaqi】

“America's allies have finally realized: being a nice kitty cannot prevent Trump from biting...” Looking back at the past few months, in the face of America's bullying tariff policies, traditional allies Japan and the EU took measures that were completely different from China's firm stance, but got vastly different results. In this context, U.S. media The Washington Post's foreign affairs columnist David Ignatius couldn't help but express such a sentiment.

On July 18 local time, Ignatius published an opinion article stating that when it comes to challenging the global order under President Trump, China, as a competitor, has performed far better than Japan and European countries, "a strong and powerful China seems to have earned Trump's respect... but other allied countries, except Britain, found out that being a loyal partner brings them only a heavy punch."

The article points out that these American allies have repeatedly failed in their tariff negotiations with the U.S., and are now facing fierce criticism domestically, suffering from both economic crises and political turbulence, "now they are considering making painful adjustments".

Ignatius mentioned Japan as a "typical example" in the article. As one of the most steadfast economic and security allies of the United States, Japan was suddenly hit with a 25% export tariff last week, which shocked Japanese officials.

This week, during U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensons' visit to Japan, Japan is striving to negotiate tariff reductions, especially for car exports. However, the U.S. told Japan, "Thank you, we decline" - Bensons' visit does not discuss tariff issues.

On July 19 local time, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba will meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensons.

Ignatius wrote that failing to secure tax exemptions from Washington may cost Japan's ruling party a high political price.

A Japanese analyst told him that Japan will hold a House of Councillors election this weekend, and the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito may lose its majority seats. Ishiba may even lose his position as prime minister. In the previous October House of Representatives election, the ruling coalition had less than half the seats, becoming a minority.

The article argues that Japan's political turmoil highlights the global turbulence caused by Trump's "America First" policy. After World War II, Japan bet on the global order led by the United States, but with Trump dismantling this cornerstone, Japan now needs to become more independent and self-reliant, and its foreign policy's dependence on the U.S. will also decrease.

A recent survey by Japanese media Yomiuri Shimbun showed that the proportion of Japanese people who trust the U.S. has dropped sharply to 22% since November last year. This sentiment is being exploited by some right-wing conservative minor parties, which are rising, shouting anti-immigrant campaign proposals like "Japanese First," and are considered likely to gain more seats in the House of Councillors election.

Similarly, Europe has also been manipulated by Trump (has been spinning on the Trump yo-yo).

This Monday, during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Rutte, Trump praised European countries for their firm stance in supporting Ukraine, saying they were "reliable and strong"; however, he immediately swung another round on trade issues, threatening to increase tariffs on the EU to 30% last week.

Europe was stunned, and French Foreign Minister Baros said that a 30% tariff level was "very unfriendly," akin to American extortion against the EU, "disappointing" the special alliance between the U.S. and Europe.

However, according to Ignatius, European countries are just "blowing hot air." So far, the EU's negotiation strategy towards Trump remains "nice kitty" style, hoping that the White House will eventually make concessions.

He mentioned that even some European officials privately assured the U.S. government that they agree that European technical regulations and information protection rules are too strict, and should be closer to U.S. standards.

EU Commissioner Schefcovic, responsible for trade and economic security, is participating in negotiations in Washington. European Parliament

Of course, the EU itself has powerful trade countermeasures, known as the "trade war rocket launcher" - the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI). According to the 2023 "Anti-Economic Coercion Regulation," the EU can unilaterally determine that a third country is engaging in "economic coercion" and take wide-ranging countermeasures, including tariffs and restrictions on foreign investment.

"Looking at China, the EU is considering taking stronger countermeasures against the Trump administration," noted Ignatius. After months of caution, European officials have begun frequently discussing this nuclear option.

However, Ignatius might have overestimated Europe. According to a latest report by the Financial Times on the 17th, in order to avoid being subjected to tariffs by the U.S. on August 1st, the EU plans to abandon the complex mechanism proposed by German car manufacturers for "export offsetting imports" and instead propose a simpler "tariff for tariff" scheme to the U.S.

The EU's original idea was that cars produced in the U.S. could enter the European market duty-free, in exchange for the same number of cars exported to the U.S. also enjoying tariff exemptions. After being rejected by the U.S., the EU's latest proposal changed to: if the Trump administration reduces the tariff on EU cars to below 20%, the EU will cancel the 10% tariff on U.S. car exports.

However, there has always been disagreement among EU member states on the countermeasures. Germany originally supported the "export offsetting imports" mechanism, but France and Italy believed this mechanism was unfavorable to their domestic car companies, as they do not have factories in the U.S.

At the same time, France is pushing the EU to use the "anti-coercion instrument" against the U.S. According to a report by U.S. media Bloomberg on the 16th, six European countries have supported France's proposal.

The report states that if the EU uses this tool for the first time in history, it could trigger a broader transatlantic trade war. However, Benjamin Haddad, the French representative for European affairs, insisted, "In this negotiation, (Europe) needs to show strength, demonstrate power, and show unity and determination."

Meanwhile, the EU Commission tries to "lower the tone." President von der Leyen repeatedly stated, "The ACI was established for special circumstances. We haven't reached that point yet."

Once an unbreakable block, the American ally circle is now more like a game where each side calculates its own interests. When the "nice kitty" style of compromise no longer earns any respect, but instead invites even harsher demands, these traditional American allies are facing unprecedented trust crises and strategic confusion.

This article is exclusive to Observer Net. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7528300785914905097/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking on the 【top/down】 buttons below.