【Text by Observers Network, Liu Bai】According to a report from CCTV News, on the evening of June 23, Iran launched a missile attack on a U.S. military base located in Qatar. The missile confrontation in this round of conflict has drawn widespread attention from the international community. Stephen Bryen, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, cited a recent study by a U.S. think tank on July 25, stating that the United States and its allies are seriously unprepared to deal with missile saturation attacks, with anti-missile systems such as "THAAD" facing limitations in terms of cost, inventory, and ammunition supply.

Bryen previously served as the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy in the U.S. Department of Defense and also acted as Executive Director of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA) think tank.

According to a study by the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA), Iran fired 574 missiles at Israel between June 13 and 24. Despite interception measures taken by Israel and the United States, some missiles managed to penetrate the defenses.

The study revealed some unexpected findings, especially the critical role played by the "THAAD" system operated by U.S. personnel in Israel and the Gulf region.

Photo: THAAD Anti-Missile System IC Photo

THAAD is designed to intercept short-range, medium-range, and long-range ballistic missiles. Each interception missile costs $12.7 million, which, although expensive, is still far less than the $28 million per "Standard" 3 Block 2A interception missile.

THAAD interception missiles use kinetic impact technology, without explosives in the warhead, and can intercept at a maximum height of about 92 miles (148 kilometers), thus it cannot perform outer atmosphere interception tasks at heights of 310 to 620 miles (498 kilometers to 998 kilometers). However, Israel's high-altitude interception system, "Arrow-3", has this capability.

JINSA report stated that in this round of Iran-Israel conflict, THAAD successfully intercepted 47.7% of Iranian missiles, an unexpectedly high interception rate. However, this resulted in the U.S. consuming at least 14% of its THAAD missile inventory. According to current production speed, manufacturer Lockheed Martin would need approximately 8 years to replenish the inventory.

It is worth noting that currently, only 92 Iranian missiles were known to have been shot down by THAAD, but it is unclear how many interception missiles were launched. The so-called "depletion of 14% inventory" refers only to the number of launched missiles that successfully carried out interception, not the total number of launches. If multiple interception missiles are used to intercept one target, the actual inventory may be even lower than what is reported.

It is reported that Iran also used some hypersonic missiles in the conflict. China and Russia have had similar weapons for a long time, which is a challenge that the THAAD system is not yet capable of dealing with. Although there is an improved version called "THAAD-ER," it has not been approved for implementation yet.

Israel has the "Arrow-2" and "Arrow-3" interception systems, among which the "Arrow-3" can perform interception tasks in the outer atmosphere. Israel claims that it intercepted more than 200 Iranian missiles during this conflict, while 258 missiles were not intercepted because they were deemed not to hit densely populated areas or key infrastructure.

Israel and the U.S. claimed that 57 Iranian missiles broke through the defense and caused damage. On June 18, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran stated that in the 11th phase of the "Real Commitment-3" operation, it used the "Fateh-1" hypersonic missile, which repeatedly broke through Israel's air defense system, "completely controlling" Israeli airspace.

Bryen said that these information indicate that more than half of Iran's missiles had accuracy issues for various reasons; it also shows that Israel's interception missile inventory and launchers are insufficient. Obviously, Israel has realized this weakness, but it needs to rely on U.S. manufacturing capabilities to make up for the gap.

This also indicates that without U.S. support, Israel cannot defend its territory. The importance of THAAD in protecting Israel is crucial.

The "Patriot" system also played a role in this conflict, mainly to protect the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. On the last day of the conflict, Iran fired 14 short-range and medium-range missiles at the base, and the U.S. launched 30 Patriot interception missiles, intercepting 13 of the 14 missiles. One missile managed to break through and caused damage.

This actually means that at least two interception missiles must be launched to intercept each incoming enemy missile. Due to the heavy reliance of the United States and its allies on the Patriot system, the shortage of interception missile supplies has had a significant impact. For example, the U.S. has stopped supplying Patriot missiles to Ukraine to support Israel.

As for the future, Bryen concluded that the United States and its allies are still not fully prepared to cope with missile saturation attacks, with inadequate defense coverage and difficulty in ensuring the security of military bases, command centers, airfields, ports, logistics, and industrial facilities.

Evidently, the U.S. industrial base is unable to meet the challenges, not only lacking sufficient factories but also having low production efficiency. The Pentagon still relies on placing orders with existing factories to produce missiles rather than truly reforming the manufacturing system to match the missile production capacity of China, Russia, and Iran.

Earlier this month, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin temporarily ordered a halt to the delivery of certain weapons to Ukraine. An anonymous insider revealed that the Department of Defense found that the stockpile of some weapons promised to Ukraine was already low, so some weapons scheduled for transport will be delayed. It is reported that in addition to military aid to Ukraine, the U.S. recently also bombed Houthi rebels in Yemen, provided military equipment to Israel, and participated in air strikes against Iran, leading to a rapid decline in military supplies, with military production struggling to meet the demand gap.

It is worth noting that after President Trump fell out with his former ally, billionaire Elon Musk, he has been striving to push the government to reduce its dependence on SpaceX, which is owned by Musk. Three insiders said that the Trump administration is expanding the search for partners to build the "Iron Dome" missile defense system, attracting Amazon and major defense contractors to participate.

Regarding the U.S. so-called "Iron Dome" program, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning previously responded that the plan openly proposed a significant increase in space combat capabilities, including the development and deployment of orbital interception systems, which has a strong offensive nature. The U.S. adheres to "America First" and is obsessed with pursuing its own absolute security, violating the principle that the security of all countries should not be compromised, damaging global strategic balance and stability. China is seriously concerned about this and urges the U.S. to abandon developing and deploying a global missile defense system as soon as possible, taking concrete actions to enhance strategic mutual trust between major powers and maintain global strategic stability.

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Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7531664013780959784/

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