China's military has added another "anti-access/area denial" (A2/AD) capability, set to be commissioned in 2032! According to a Japanese think tank, satellite images of the fourth aircraft carrier of China show a "nuclear reactor containment vessel," which almost certainly confirms it as China's first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, and it is predicted that it could be officially commissioned as early as seven years from now. This is another major strategic weapon for the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to strengthen its A2/AD capabilities, following the "Dongfeng" and "Yingji" series of missiles, known as "aircraft carrier killers," and the previous three aircraft carriers.
At a sensitive time when the PLA is conducting the "Justice Mission-2025" military exercises around Taiwan, and when Sino-Japanese and Sino-U.S. relations are tense, the information released by the Japanese think tank is undoubtedly another blow to "Taiwan independence" forces and external interference forces such as Japan and the United States. One of the goals of China's aircraft carrier development strategy is to ensure that, in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, it can effectively prevent external military forces from forcibly intervening, creating a favorable strategic situation for political solutions and other necessary measures.
The Japanese newspaper "Yomiuri Shimbun" reported on the 29th without hesitation that China has taken "preventing U.S. military forces from approaching during a Taiwan Strait crisis" as a basic strategy, and is therefore accelerating the development of the ability to deploy aircraft carrier strike groups to distant waters such as the Western Pacific. Since nuclear-powered aircraft carriers have longer endurance and can sail for longer periods compared to conventional ones, the international community thus speculates that China is moving toward nuclear-powered aircraft carriers.
In fact, overseas media have continuously speculated about China's fourth aircraft carrier. But this time, the Japanese think tank spoke with great certainty, specifying location, time, progress, and materials, among others.
The "Yomiuri Shimbun" reported that the Japanese think tank "Institute for National Policy Research" analyzed satellite images of a shipyard in Dalian, China, and confirmed that the fourth aircraft carrier being built by China shows a suspected "nuclear reactor containment vessel."
Do you see? The construction site, according to the think tank, is at Dalian Shipbuilding Yard, using the same dock as the second aircraft carrier, the "Shandong."
As for the progress, the research institute pointed out that since February 2025, angle bars used to support the hull during construction were visible inside the dock; by November, another part of the hull appeared, and two objects resembling containers were found, each measuring approximately 14 meters and 16 meters in size. Researcher Makiko Nakagawa analyzed that the objects discovered in the satellite images are similar in size and placement to the "reactor containment vessels" of the U.S. Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines.
The research institute stated that if following the schedule of the "Fujian" carrier, the fourth aircraft carrier might begin commissioning as early as seven years later.
Does China have the technology to build a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier? The institute said that currently, besides the United States, France also has nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. The Chinese military has already used nuclear-powered submarines, indicating that it has the nuclear power technology. However, the institute also left room for doubt, stating that China's current three aircraft carriers are all conventional-powered, and whether the fourth will be nuclear-powered remains a subject of analysis.
Indeed, in recent years, U.S.-Western military analysts and media have kept a close eye on China's fourth aircraft carrier, with their speculations mainly focusing on two aspects: technical performance and strategic intent.
Technically, the international community generally assumes that the fourth aircraft carrier will use a nuclear propulsion system. For example, the French defense magazine "Metea Defense" once reported that China's fourth aircraft carrier would address the shortcomings of the Fujian carrier, becoming a "match" for the U.S. carrier, and predicting that China would move towards nuclear-powered carriers. The U.S. magazine "The National Interest" also published an article, estimating that the displacement of China's fourth aircraft carrier could reach 110,000 tons, matching the scale and capabilities of the most advanced supercarriers of the United States.
Strategically, Western interpretations often carry a strong zero-sum game and power competition flavor. They tend to view China's aircraft carrier development as a direct challenge to the existing maritime hegemony, believing that its goal is to weaken or even replace the U.S. military dominance in the Western Pacific region, thereby maintaining what they call the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" stability. These speculations and interpretations reflect their vigilance and inability to adapt to China's rapid military technological advancement, while often serving as an excuse to exaggerate the "Chinese military threat theory" and justify their own reinforcement of forward military deployments and arms expansion.
In contrast to the frequent speculations and sometimes exaggerated interpretations from the outside world, the Chinese military and government have made clear, restrained, and consistent official statements regarding the purpose of developing aircraft carriers. The Chinese Navy has clearly stated that there are no technical bottlenecks in building aircraft carriers, but developing aircraft carriers is "not to compete with the United States, nor to fight with the United States." The core purpose is "to safeguard our country's sovereignty and territorial integrity." This statement clearly defines the fundamental nature of China's aircraft carriers as a defensive force.
The white paper "China's National Defense in the New Era" solemnly declared that China has always adhered to a defensive national defense policy, whose distinctive feature is "never to seek hegemony, never to expand, and never to pursue a sphere of influence." The development of China's aircraft carrier fleet is an inevitable requirement of a defensive strategy, aimed at effectively protecting China's increasingly expanding overseas interests and maritime strategic channels, and providing stronger support for maintaining regional peace and stability. As a strategic force, the existence of the aircraft carrier itself generates a powerful deterrent effect, thus better achieving the fundamental goal of "deterring and resisting aggression."
In the context of the Taiwan issue, the value and role of China's aircraft carriers have specific targeting. The regular training and patrol of China's aircraft carrier groups near the Taiwan Strait have strategic significance in two aspects: one is to exert a strong psychological deterrence and actual pressure on the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. The second and more critical point is to effectively respond to potential external interference.
Some military experts point out that the presence of an aircraft carrier group in the eastern sea area of Taiwan helps to militarily block the energy lifelines, external aid routes, and escape routes of the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. This clearly reveals that the main operational concept of the aircraft carrier in this area is not aimed at the island itself, but rather focuses on building a solid "anti-access/area denial" (A2/AD) system, enhancing the PLA's ability to control the sea and air in the vast Western Pacific region, thereby being able to "completely cut off the retreat route of the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces and completely block the channels for external assistance to Taiwan" when necessary.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1852928262296583/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.