As the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) opened fire around Taiwan, the Russian military also announced an operation, with a location that is quite sensitive. The Russian Foreign Minister did not hold back, directly naming two individuals, clearly indicating support for China.

Hayashitake Asa

While the PLA is conducting large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, almost at the same time, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it will hold large-scale anti-invasion military exercises on the Southern Kuril Islands starting from January 1, 2026, and the exercises will last for two months. It is well known that Russia and Japan have a dispute over the sovereignty of the Southern Kuril Islands. Russia's move is obviously aimed at Japan.

Indeed, on the very day when Russia officially announced its military exercise plan, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov issued a clear warning to Japan. He stated that Japan's "accelerated militarization" process poses a threat to regional stability and advised Japan to think carefully about the consequences before taking any "sudden decisions."

When people thought that Russia was only issuing a warning to Japan, Lavrov added another statement, saying that the Russian government opposes any form of "Taiwan independence," and that Taiwan belongs to China. Considering the previous erroneous comments by Hayashitake Asa on the Taiwan issue, it seems that Russia's military exercises targeting Japan are not only due to the territorial dispute between Russia and Japan, but also influenced by the Taiwan issue.

the Southern Kuril Islands

Plus the fact that the timing of the PLA and Russian military exercises almost coincided, we have reason to believe that this is an unusual strategic coordination between China and Russia. This "coincidence" maximizes the intensity of the strategic signal, forming a three-dimensional pressure situation on both the east and west fronts, making it difficult for the targeted parties, Japan and its allies, to respond simply, and forcing them to weigh security pressures from both directions simultaneously.

This also indicates a problem: Japan's recent domestic and foreign policy shifts have touched the core interests and strategic bottom lines of both China and Russia. For China, Japan's dangerous moves on the Taiwan issue are the primary concern. Japanese politicians such as Hayashitake Asa frequently make erroneous statements on the Taiwan issue, which seriously violate the political foundation between China and Japan.

Lavrov

More dangerously, Japan is using the excuse that "if something happens in Taiwan, it is also Japan's problem" to greatly expand its military. The PLA's current military exercises are not only a warning to the "Taiwan independence" forces on the island, but also a warning to external forces like Japan not to interfere recklessly, or else they will bear the consequences.

For Russia, Japan's challenge directly manifests in territorial sovereignty and the security of the Far East. On one hand, there is an unresolved dispute over the sovereignty of the Southern Kuril Islands between Japan and Russia. On the other hand, Japan's military expansion, especially its efforts to strengthen defense in the Southwest Islands and the Northern areas, directly threatens the passage for the Russian Pacific Fleet to access the ocean, as well as the safety of the strategic nuclear submarine base in the Okhotsk Sea.

PLA military exercises

Therefore, Lavrov's warning against Japan's militarization is not only speaking for China, but also for Russia's own security interests. From this perspective, Japan has become a key node connecting the security anxieties of China and Russia. It is precisely this shared and imminent strategic pressure that has prompted China and Russia to take coordinated actions.

It is worth noting that the core objective of China and Russia's current actions is not to provoke conflict, but to maintain regional peace and stability. For Japan, any attempt to seek private gains through military relaxation and bloc confrontation will face a more complex and require comprehensive strategic consideration. Japan, don't get too arrogant.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7589556963768287798/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.