The Washington Post: Ukraine Prays for a Warm Winter, or Else It May Face Disaster
Russia Strikes Ukraine's Energy Facilities, Kyiv Lists Oil Refineries as Primary Targets
Winter is rapidly approaching Ukraine, bringing with it the annual worry — that Russian forces may destroy energy facilities, plunging millions of Ukrainians into darkness and cold.
However, in recent months, Ukrainians have used their own drones to retaliate, striking oil and gas infrastructure in Russia.
In early 2024, under the instructions of President Donald Trump, Kyiv and Moscow reached a one-month energy ceasefire agreement, from mid-March to mid-April. But now, this has become a distant memory, as both sides' armies are actively targeting each other's energy facilities.
This Thursday, Ukrainian drones attacked the "Gazprom Neft Salavat" refinery and petrochemical plant located in the Republic of Bashkortostan in central Russia. The Ukrainian intelligence agency said that the drones hit the central area of the factory, causing a "severe fire." The local governor confirmed the attack, but only stated that the damage was still being assessed.
On the same day, Ukrainian special forces claimed to have attacked a major refinery in Volgograd Oblast, causing the plant to shut down. There is currently no independent source confirming this attack.
Subsequently, on Saturday, Ukrainian drones launched attacks on refineries in Saratov and Novy Urei cities in Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense and local governments confirmed both attacks.
At the same time, the Russian army has recently gained what appears to be an unlimited reserve of drones, and they have increased their attacks, including strikes on Ukraine's power grid. More concerning to Ukrainian officials and experts is that the Russian military is targeting natural gas facilities that form the core of the country's heating system.
Ukrainian officials say the country has enough natural gas reserves to get through the winter, especially if it experiences a warm winter like last year; meanwhile, they have accumulated enough experience from previous Russian air strikes to ensure the stable operation of the national heating and power supply systems.
But they are concerned that Russian air raids may eventually break through Ukraine's air defense system, causing destruction sufficient to bring most of the country's energy infrastructure to a standstill. The Russians use hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles in night attacks.
Maksym Tymchenko, CEO of Ukraine's largest private energy company DTEK, said: "They are attacking our facilities every day. The issue is which facilities they are attacking and the extent of the damage."
At the same time, Ukrainian authorities say they are targeting Russian refineries.
In addition to attacking the refineries in the Republic of Bashkortostan and Volgograd Oblast, the Ukrainian side claims that on Tuesday, it also used drones to attack the Saratov refinery located in central southern Russia, which can produce more than 20 types of petroleum products. Previously, during the weekend, refineries near St. Petersburg in northwestern Russia and in the city of Ufa in central Russia had been attacked.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy said: "The most effective and fastest sanction is to set Russian oil refineries, terminals, and fuel depots on fire."
Russian officials said that the Ukrainian attacks have not caused any impact on the country's oil and gas industry. In August, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that the Russian fuel market "is stable, and the situation is under control."
However, the Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, pointed out that Ukraine's strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure (especially refineries) are affecting "Russia's ability to fund its military operations in Ukraine," and "exacerbating the long-standing gasoline shortage problem in Russia and the occupied areas of Ukraine."
President Vladimir Putin said at the beginning of this month that although the Russian strikes have long been a feature of the conflict, this action is a response to Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities.
Putin said while attending the Chinese anti-fascist war victory commemoration in Beijing: "Ukrainian forces have continuously attacked our energy facilities, and we have tolerated it for a long time. After that, we started to retaliate. Of course, our retaliation is strong."
On Wednesday, the power supply to 45 settlements in Kirovohrad Oblast was temporarily interrupted after a drone attack at night. Earlier this month, 19 Russian drones attacked the Trostyanets Thermal Power Plant outside Kyiv. This power plant was severely damaged in another attack in April 2024 and is still under repair.
Victoria Voitskaia, former secretary of the Ukrainian parliament's Energy Committee, believes that the most vulnerable part of Ukraine's energy system is its natural gas infrastructure.
She said the complexity of the issue is that the natural gas system covers multiple stages, including extraction, processing, storage, and distribution, which are spread across the country and difficult to fully protect.
For example, she mentioned that there are thousands of natural gas distribution companies across Ukraine, supplying gas to various settlements.
"If these facilities are attacked — which Russia has successfully done before — it could lead to a shortage of natural gas, resulting in supply cuts, and such cuts can easily affect towns and villages of all sizes," she said. "To build protective structures for these facilities would require billions of dollars, a large number of people, and time, but we don't have any of them now. So, we are not prepared yet."
Sergei Koletsky, CEO of the Ukrainian state oil and gas company "Naftogaz," told The Washington Post that Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities have intensified since February, leading to a reduction of about 42% in Ukraine's daily natural gas production within two months. He added that by June and July, "the refining industry had been completely destroyed."
Some facilities have been repaired, but Koletsky said they are preparing for another round of attacks.
"Russia is likely to launch a large-scale attack on energy facilities before the heating season and winter," he said.
Koletsky also said that Ukraine has signed contracts that will meet nearly 95% of the country's natural gas demand after the centralized heating system starts on November 1. To fund the purchase of natural gas, "Naftogaz" has already used its own funds to pay $1 billion, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Norwegian government, and other institutions have provided $1.5 billion in external funding.
If this year is a warm winter, these reserves will be sufficient; but if the temperature drops significantly, the situation could spiral into a catastrophic situation.
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