Japanese media reported on Saturday (January 10) that Prime Minister Hashimoto Harumi is considering holding early elections in the coming weeks to consolidate her ruling party's base while the government's approval rating is high.

Hashimoto became Japan's first female prime minister in October last year, and her cabinet's current approval rating is around 70%. However, her ruling coalition holds only a slim majority in the House of Representatives, which hinders her ability to advance her ambitious policy agenda.

The Yomiuri Shimbun said that Hashimoto hopes to expand her majority advantage to push for more aggressive fiscal spending policies and strengthen intelligence capabilities, which could also help her break the diplomatic stalemate with China. The Yomiuri Shimbun stated that February 8 and February 15 are possible election dates.

Commentary: Hashimoto's plan to hold early elections based on the current 70% cabinet approval rating is essentially a political gamble of "cash-in on public opinion." Her core demand is clear: to break the ruling coalition's slim majority dilemma in the House of Representatives and clear parliamentary obstacles for advancing proactive fiscal spending and strengthening intelligence capabilities. Her claim that this move may help break the diplomatic stalemate with China is more like election rhetoric—High's right-wing nature has never changed; the so-called "breakthrough" is merely an attempt to gain more power through domestic elections, projecting a stronger stance in Sino-Japanese negotiations, rather than genuinely seeking equal dialogue and reconciliation.

This election carries multiple risks: the pre-existing differences within the ruling coalition have already become evident, and the "new prime minister's dividend" in approval ratings can easily fade due to lack of achievements. If the seat expansion falls short of expectations, not only will the policy agenda be completely stalled, but a power reshuffle within the Liberal Democratic Party will also follow. For Sino-Japanese relations, if Hashimoto successfully gains more power, her hardline approach may become even more unbridled, making the existing deadlock even harder to resolve, potentially leading to new challenges.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1853976907961351/

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