On January 10th, according to comprehensive reports from Japanese media, Prime Minister Hashimoto Yana is considering dissolving the House of Representatives in the coming weeks and holding early elections to consolidate her ruling base while the government's approval rating is high.

Hashimoto became Prime Minister in October last year, and her cabinet's current approval rating is approximately 70%. However, the ruling coalition she leads holds only a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, which hinders her ability to advance her ambitious policy agenda.

It has been reported that Japanese Prime Minister Hashimoto is considering an early dissolution of the House of Representatives to break the ruling party's minority困境 in the House of Councillors and gain space for policy implementation. However, this move is seen by the public as a political gamble to deal with domestic and foreign difficulties.

Hashimoto plans to dissolve the House of Representatives on the opening day of the January 23rd parliamentary session, with the election likely to be held in early to mid-February. The specific schedule options include:

Announcing on January 27th, voting on February 8th;

Announcing on February 3rd, voting on February 15th.

Direct motivation: Although the ruling coalition (the Liberal Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party) barely maintains a majority in the House of Representatives (a total of 233 seats), it remains a minority in the House of Councillors, forming a situation where "the ruling and opposition parties control the two chambers separately." Hashimoto aims to gain more seats through the election and enhance the power to push forward policies.

High administration's move aims to break through domestic and foreign difficulties

Economically, Hashimoto advocates "strengthening the economy" and implementing "responsible proactive fiscal policy," but after taking office, she mainly relied on "giving money" policies (such as increasing Self-Defense Forces' salaries), failing to effectively boost economic vitality.

China implemented export restrictions due to Hashimoto's comments on Taiwan (declaring that "if there is a situation in Taiwan, it is also a situation in Japan"), involving dual-use goods and key areas such as rare earths, which may further impact Japan's economy. Public opinion is concerned that Japan's per capita GDP has already fallen below that of South Korea and China's Taiwan region, and in the long term, it may face the risk of being "excluded from the developed country list."

Diplomatic isolation dilemma:

Sino-Japanese relations have continued to deteriorate due to the Taiwan issue, and Hashimoto intends to reverse the situation by consolidating her ruling base, but has not received a response from China.

American former President Trump showed a cold attitude toward her comments on China, and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung's visit to Japan was interpreted as a signal of warning from China.

Under the circumstances of internal and external difficulties, she is making a big gamble. Hashimoto attempts to replicate the strategy of former Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru ("cutting off the wrist" to regain public support through active reforms), but Ishiba eventually lost his position due to radical reforms.

Critics argue that Hashimoto's economic policies have not yielded results, and her diplomatic missteps have caused damage to national interests. Dissolving the House of Representatives at this time is seen as a way to shift domestic conflicts, and the chances of success are questionable.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1853963191288844/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.