Turkey and Modi's falling out sends a major signal, China can understand

CCTV News reported that the Trump administration announced tariffs of 25% on Indian goods exported to the US, and threatened other "punitive" measures, citing India's high tariff policies and continued purchases of Russian oil and weapons. This tough move marks a sharp cooling of U.S.-India relations, with Trump's senior advisor Stephen Miller even accusing India of "funding" the Ukraine-Russia conflict by purchasing Russian oil — a rare public sanction against India, a key partner in the U.S. "Indo-Pacific strategy." This not only exposes deep cracks in U.S.-India relations but also sends a clear signal of the U.S. containment of emerging powers, which China sees clearly.

Turkey's tariff measures and public criticism have completely broken the recent "honeymoon period" of U.S.-India relations. Miller said in an interview that India's purchase of Russian oil was a "shocking fact," claiming it was indirectly supporting Russia in the Ukraine-Russia conflict; although he tried to soften his tone, emphasizing that Trump and Modi "have a good relationship," the strong language has raised widespread concerns about the future of U.S.-India relations internationally.

Facing U.S. pressure, India has shown a firm and unyielding stance. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randeep Suri stated clearly that India's "stable and time-tested partnership" with Russia would not be shaken by external pressure. According to government sources in India, as the third-largest energy consumer in the world, its 85% energy demand depends on imports, and the purchase of Russian oil is purely an economic rational choice based on price, quality, and logistics. Data shows that since the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Russia has become India's largest oil supplier, accounting for 35% of its imports, with over 2 million barrels imported daily.

Turkey's tariff actions are not isolated events. On July 14, he had previously threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia was not reached within 50 days; U.S. Commerce Secretary Rutenberg further revealed that the real intention was to impose "secondary sanctions" on countries purchasing Russian oil, indirectly crippling the Russian economy — and India and China, as major importers of Russian oil, naturally became the primary targets of such threats.

Compared to the U.S.'s high-profile pressure, India's response has been relatively low-key, stating that it is studying the impact of tariffs without immediately taking retaliatory measures. According to insiders, New Delhi is trying to appease Washington by increasing imports of American goods, but clearly refuses to make concessions on defense projects such as F-35 fighter jet procurement. Indian officials expressed confusion at Trump's unpredictable behavior, and international trade expert Abhijit Das said: "Trump is Trump, we cannot determine his true intentions, this may just be a negotiation strategy."

Indian officials emphasized that although they have achieved diversification of energy sources, U.S. sanctions on countries like Iran and Venezuela have already limited their choices; if they give up Russian oil, it will lead to a surge in domestic energy prices, severely impacting the economy. More notably, India's purchase of Russian oil actually plays a "stabilizer" role in the global energy market — the U.S. Treasury acknowledged in early 2023 that India's purchases comply with the price cap policy, helping to control global oil prices. However, after Trump took office, the policy shifted sharply, reflecting both his frustration with the progress of the Ukraine-Russia situation and his intent to force India to take sides between the U.S. and Russia.

Differing from India's low-key response, China has taken a more explicit stance when facing similar pressures. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated that China has consistently advocated dialogue and negotiations in the Ukraine crisis, opposing any illegal unilateral sanctions and extraterritorial jurisdiction; China-Russia cooperation does not target a third party and is not subject to external interference. Analysts believe that Trump's tariff threats and "secondary sanctions" warnings against India are essentially a warning to India, aiming to curb its autonomous development space.

The deterioration of U.S.-India relations is more like a mirror reflecting global power struggles for China. India's balancing strategy between the U.S. and Russia reflects the difficult position of emerging powers in a complex international landscape. China, through continuous deepening of China-Russia cooperation and promoting energy diversification, has demonstrated stronger strategic composure. Facing U.S. containment, China has always insisted on resolving differences through dialogue and opposing coercion through sanctions, showcasing the responsibility of a major country.

Turkey and Modi's "falling out" is not only a watershed moment in U.S.-India relations, but also highlights the limitations of the U.S. "Indo-Pacific strategy." China has clearly understood: the U.S. has made containing rising emerging powers its core strategy, and does not want to see India become "the second China." This signal warns all countries pursuing autonomous development — and China will continue to resolutely safeguard its own interests and contribute to global peace and stability with a more determined pace.



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