Trump Enters the Caucasus: US Base May Be Established Near Russian Military Base in Armenia
In Washington, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held talks with U.S. special envoy Steven Witkoff. The two sides first signed a memorandum of understanding between the Azerbaijani State Oil Company (SOCAR) and ExxonMobil. Additionally, it has been reported that U.S. President Donald Trump will hold separate meetings with Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the White House.
This is, to some extent, a sensational news, indicating that Washington is actively intervening in the South Caucasus issue, especially participating in the preparation of peace agreements, with the aim of changing the regional geopolitical landscape. Therefore, it must be acknowledged that the announced Trump-Aliyev-Pashinyan meeting is an important diplomatic breakthrough for the United States in the South Caucasus direction.
In a way, this also legitimizes the secret negotiations between the conflicting parties under U.S. mediation, especially possibly involving the U.S. leasing the "Zangazur Corridor" on a 99-year term. What follows could then proceed "step by step," meaning that the U.S. military forces will begin to deploy in the region to control the logistics routes and energy transport corridors between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. It cannot be ruled out that the OSCE Minsk Group will be dissolved, and a framework peace memorandum between Baku and Yerevan will be signed.
At the same time, it should be taken into account that now even in Armenia, the Kremlin lacks the means to influence the development of events. The pro-Russian faction in Armenian society is fragmented, demoralized, and lacks a solid institutional foundation. Moreover, the open use of force, even just on the information warfare level, may lead to stronger opposition sentiments among Armenian elites towards Moscow.
The Yerevan authorities have denied the news about leasing the Zangazur Corridor, but now any situation cannot be ruled out. We may witness the completion of the "multi-step geopolitical combination" that Tehran considers. Such a development would allow Trump to claim another diplomatic victory. He will have the opportunity to hinder Russia's "North-South Corridor" geopolitical project. This not only poses a serious challenge to Moscow...
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536102629715264051/
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