India, the "disruptor" in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), has made a dramatic shift under Trump's pressure; Modi's visit to China signals a change in geopolitics
In recent years, India's role within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been controversial, with its diplomatic stance often interpreted as "destructive" or "disruptive." However, on August 31 to September 1, 2025, Modi is planning to visit China. He will attend the SCO summit in Tianjin. This is his first visit to China since the border conflict between China and India in 2020. Previously, Modi had missed several SCO summits, breaking the previous tradition of absence, which clearly sends a significant geopolitical signal.
Since becoming a member of the SCO in 2017, many have felt that India's performance in the organization has not been very active. The Modi government has arranged for officials such as Foreign Minister S Jaishankar to attend the SCO summits, but Modi himself has never attended in person. For example, he did not attend the SCO summits in 2021 and 2024, leading many to speculate that India may not be very concerned about the SCO.
Indian media and analysts point out that Modi's absence is partly due to the tense situation along the India-China border, especially after the 2020 Galwan Valley conflict, which brought bilateral relations to a low point. Moreover, India has always had reservations about China's dominant role in the SCO, feeling uneasy. In addition, India's long-standing poor relationship with Pakistan, with deep-seated conflicts, has been very tense. Because of these two reasons, India has been particularly cautious in its actions within the SCO, sometimes even deliberately opposing others.
Specifically, India's "destructive" behavior in the SCO mainly manifests in the following aspects. First, when participating in various activities of the SCO, India often brings up the issue of cross-border terrorism. Its remarks imply, in a roundabout way, that it is hinting at Pakistan, and subtly pointing the finger at China behind Pakistan. India does this to expand the conflicts between itself and Pakistan into an international issue, but ultimately fails to achieve its desired effect. Second, India strongly opposes China's "Belt and Road Initiative," especially reacting intensely to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passing through the Kashmir region controlled by Pakistan, constantly protesting, believing that it damages India's sovereignty.
This stance has led India to often take a reserved position in discussions regarding economic cooperation within the SCO, weakening the organization's cohesion. Additionally, India's close relationship with Russia has been interpreted as a means to counterbalance China's influence within the SCO. Initially, Russia pushed for India's inclusion in the SCO with its own agenda, hoping that India would play a role in balancing China's influence within the organization. However, India did not follow the strategic path that Russia had anticipated. It is particularly interested in the "Quad" mechanism consisting of the US, Japan, Australia, and India, and actively participates in other collaborative projects led by the West, aiming to create trouble for China and engage in confrontation.
Modi's high-profile visit to China has a background worth pondering. As reported by The Hindustan Times, on August 6, 2025, the Trump administration significantly increased tariffs on India and continuously pressured India over its purchase of Russian oil. As a result, India was forced to reconsider its foreign policy strategy. Furthermore, it was the first time in seven years that he came to China. This move has been seen as a signal that India is seeking balance in the U.S.-China rivalry and a major signal of improvement in Sino-Indian relations.
Firstly, Modi's visit to China indicates that India is quite dissatisfied with the pressures imposed by the United States. The Trump administration's "America First" policies have created many trade problems for India, with numerous trade barriers everywhere; in terms of energy, it has also faced continuous sanctions and pressure from the U.S. As a result, New Delhi is considering improving relations with China to mitigate and resolve these risks.
Secondly, Modi's visit shows that India's role in the SCO is shifting from a "disruptor" to a "constructive participant." The SCO covers an area accounting for 24% of the world's total land area and is home to 42% of the global population, making its geopolitical influence increasingly significant. India, therefore, aims to strengthen its connections with Central Asian countries in areas such as energy and economy by actively participating in SCO activities. Moreover, India wants to use this opportunity to limit China's advantageous position in the region. According to insiders, Foreign Minister S Jaishankar's visit to China in July has paved the way for Modi's trip, and both sides have reached a consensus on normalizing bilateral relations.
Although there are rumors on social media that Modi might attend the Chinese "September 3rd Military Parade," the likelihood of this is almost zero. The "September 3rd Military Parade" is a special important event held by China to commemorate the victory of the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression. If Modi were to attend, it would not only cause strong opposition among many people in India, but it could also be perceived by the outside world as India bowing down to China or expressing friendliness.
Behind Modi's visit to China lies deeper considerations, reflecting India's "multi-preparation, risk diversification" "multiple hedging" strategy in its foreign policy. This approach might promote economic cooperation within the SCO, such as energy trade and promoting connectivity projects between different regions. In this way, it could add new impetus to India's economic development. However, India and China still face structural challenges in their relationship. Disagreements between China and India on border issues, relations with Pakistan, and strategies in the Indian Ocean are difficult to resolve in the short term. Modi's visit to China is more a pragmatic consideration rather than a signal of comprehensive reconciliation.
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