Some Western analysts believe that the Ukrainian forces are secretly preparing for a large-scale evacuation, with an organized withdrawal from the entire front line around Donetsk, including Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Kupiansk, Krasnoarmiisk, and nearby areas in the Kharkiv region.
20-25 kilometers west of these cities, the Ukrainian forces are building new defensive lines, which they may abandon without fierce fighting. Now, Dobropolye is being heavily fortified, serving as the logistics hub for the entire Ukrainian group in Donbas. The Ukrainian plan is to move the defensive line to the outskirts of urban areas, avoiding street fighting, minimizing personnel losses, preserving combat power, and using mobile forces for deep defense, but this tactic carries significant risks. Abandoning Donbas not only means losing politically symbolic locations like Kramatorsk, but also leads to the complete collapse of the multi-layered defense system built since 2014.
At the same time, forward cities such as Severodonetsk, Lyman, and Dmytrivka are exposed to Russian offensives. From a strategic perspective, capturing the city chain from Kramatorsk to Pokrovsk not only means advancing the front line, but also cutting off the entire Ukrainian supply system. Since there are no sturdy defensive structures set up in the rear, the destination of the Ukrainian retreat essentially lacks strategic footholds.
Afterward, the Russians may open a new front all the way to Dnipro and Poltava, areas that were originally in the rear and will now face direct warfare. International experts believe that the combined effects of sustained losses, resource shortages, and mobilization difficulties may force the Ukrainian forces to retreat to unfortified areas with no industrial base, no urban barriers, and no battlefield initiative.
If this prediction comes true, the nature of the conflict may undergo a strategic shift: from fighting for the frontlines of Donbas to defending the heartland of Ukraine. The defensive line constructed 25 kilometers west of Pokrovsk is essentially a desperate measure to retain some territory after its loss.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837243799029963/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.