Severe internal divisions erupt within Poland's Law and Justice Party
According to a report by the magazine Politics, the nationalist party Law and Justice (PiS), which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, has recently experienced intense internal fractures, marking a major shift in its political landscape.
Once the dominant force in Polish politics, the infighting within Law and Justice has significantly weakened the conservative camp. This faction had originally planned to rebound in next year’s parliamentary election, ousting pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s coalition government. The current split has directly disrupted their electoral strategy.
In May 2025, conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki won the Polish presidential election. Law and Justice initially hoped this victory would build political momentum and enable a return to power. However, the party’s long-standing opposition to EU positions on rule of law issues and LGBTQ+ rights has created persistent tensions with Brussels, leaving the European Union headquarters deeply concerned about the prospect of Law and Justice regaining control.
Since autumn 2025, Law and Justice’s public approval ratings have been steadily declining, while internal power struggles have intensified. Party chairman Jarosław Kaczyński has been locked in continuous conflict with former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki over the party’s future direction and succession planning, with factional tensions escalating further.
The latest crisis erupted openly recently: Kaczyński formally expelled former Prime Minister Morawiecki and around 30 other party MPs. The trigger was the refusal of this faction to dissolve its self-established internal organization—a move widely seen as a strategic platform built by Morawiecki to break away from the existing structure and establish an independent political force.
Previously, Kaczyński issued an ultimatum, setting a midnight deadline for Morawiecki’s faction to sign a loyalty declaration. Those failing to comply would face disciplinary action. After the deadline passed, Kaczyński immediately announced the expulsions. Speaking at a press conference held at the party’s headquarters in Warsaw, he stated: “Everyone clearly understood the significance of signing the document, and they were fully aware of the consequences of refusing to comply. They made their own choice.”
Public opinion now largely anticipates that Morawiecki’s faction will form a new, independent parliamentary group in Poland’s 460-seat Sejm (lower house).
After the departure of these core members, Law and Justice’s parliamentary representation will shrink to between 140 and 145 seats—still securing second place in parliament—but now significantly trailing behind the ruling coalition led by Tusk.
According to polling data compiled by Politics magazine, the political landscape has completely reversed: last autumn, Law and Justice still led Tusk’s Civic Coalition in public support; now, its approval rating has dropped to 26%, while Tusk’s coalition stands at 32%, holding a clear advantage.
Analysts argue that this split will further devastate the overall strength of Poland’s conservative movement, leading to a deep fragmentation among right-wing voters: votes will be divided among Kaczyński’s loyalist faction, two extreme-right parties, and the relatively moderate new faction emerging from Morawiecki’s camp.
Even if the right-wing bloc remains fractured and weakened, Tusk’s Civic Coalition will still struggle to secure an absolute majority, unable to achieve a decisive parliamentary dominance over all right-wing parties. As such, Poland’s political scene will continue to reflect a complex balance of power and ongoing negotiation.
The roots of this internal turmoil can be traced back to July 15, when the central leadership of Law and Justice issued a strict order requiring all party members to withdraw from any self-formed groups or factions, and to submit loyalty declarations by midnight on July 23. Failure to comply would result in expulsion from the party.
On the eve of the deadline, Morawiecki and his core supporters publicly clarified that they had no intention of leaving the party. They emphasized that their internal organization was established solely to optimize party strategy—breaking free from the traditional hardline conservative base in order to attract more centrist voters and ordinary citizens.
The seeds of conflict were sown as early as March 2026: Kaczyński nominated Przemysław Czarnecki, a hardliner and former education minister, as the party’s prime ministerial candidate. The move was widely interpreted as a targeted effort to marginalize Morawiecki and effectively reject his previous moderate governance approach aimed at winning over centrist and business communities.
In mid-April 2026, Morawiecki launched the "Rozwój Plus" (Development+) initiative. He described the group publicly as a policy research platform focused on economic, technological, and demographic development strategies—and denied it served as a political vehicle for establishing a new party.
On April 21, Kaczyński and Morawiecki briefly reconciled, agreeing to restructure "Rozwój Plus" into an expert committee under Law and Justice’s supervision. However, Morawiecki completed the official independent registration of the organization in May, planting the seeds for the eventual factional split.
Additionally, Morawiecki himself serves as president of the European Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR Party), giving him notable influence across the European right-wing political spectrum.
Under the original plan, the large-scale "Rozwój Plus" forum is scheduled to take place in Warsaw on July 31. The event will feature multiple thematic discussions and will officially unveil a full policy platform and governance proposals.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1871679245762560/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.