Everyone, take a look at this scene:

On this side, it's the most advanced "Ford" aircraft carrier in the United States, accompanied by the entire aircraft carrier strike group, boldly entering the Caribbean Sea. There are over 4,000 sailors on board, along with dozens of fighter jets ready to go into combat at any time; on the other side, the Venezuelan defense minister is furious and slamming the table, making tough statements that the country's 200,000 troops are all prepared, even the militia have taken guns to the front lines.

This is not just a prelude to an exercise, but a real tension. A few days ago, there were reports that U.S. B-1B bombers had flown near the coast of Venezuela, and the Venezuelan military's Su-30 fighters had missiles hanging around for patrol and counterattacks. Many people are asking: Will these two sides really start a war? What is Trump really up to? Can Venezuela's 200,000 troops withstand the US's might?

The trigger for this incident seems to be "anti-drug", but actually, it's all tactics.

Since August this year, the US has pointed fingers at the Maduro government, accusing them of colluding with drug gangs, and even offering a $50 million reward to capture Maduro himself. Then they sent warships to the Caribbean Sea, first sending three ships carrying 4,000 soldiers, and later even deploying the "Ford" aircraft carrier.

This is the most powerful aircraft carrier in the US. It has F/A-18 fighter jets, EA-18G electronic warfare planes, and other formidable weapons. Accompanying it are four destroyers equipped with "Aegis" systems.

Trump spoke eloquently, saying this was to "combat drug trafficking," but everyone could see something was wrong.

You should know that the US has already deployed more than 15,000 troops in this area. They also sank 10 ships they called "drug-running vessels" and killed 43 people.

More importantly, Trump himself said he had authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations in Venezuela. You know, the CIA has been skilled at staging coups in Latin America, so the intention behind this is clear enough, right?

Maduro certainly won't choose to back down. Starting from September, he arranged for nationwide military exercises.

At first, he deployed forces in 284 places, and later even launched the "Independence 200 Plan", mobilizing the army, police, and militia together. The defense minister even made a tough statement: "Whoever dares to invade, we guarantee you will not return!" Thus, he gathered a force of 200,000 people.

Next comes the more important question: Who would win if it actually came to war? Let's get one thing straight, if it's a conventional war, Venezuela probably wouldn't stand a chance. This isn't about boosting others' confidence, it's just the huge gap in strength between the two sides.

The US has a crushing advantage:

Firstly, the control of air and sea is stable. Once the aircraft on the "Ford" carrier take off, the skies and seas around Venezuela are basically under US control. Not to mention the F-35 stealth fighters that can sneak in undetected, taking out the enemy's air defense system and command center in one fell swoop.

Secondly, the technological gap in equipment is insurmountable. The mainstay of the Venezuelan Air Force are Russian Sukhoi fighters bought in the last century, parts are almost impossible to find, and they're one or two generations behind the US aircraft. As for electronic warfare, if the US interferes with signals, the Venezuelan radar may become completely blind.

Most importantly, the US has precise strike capabilities. There's no need for direct confrontation, cruise missiles can be fired from warships to destroy key targets, and Venezuela has no effective counterattack methods.

However, Venezuela is not naive, and has already planned for "asymmetric strategies". Simply put, it doesn't fight head-on, but focuses on a war of attrition:

The first step is to disperse the large forces into small groups, deploying them in more than 280 locations across the country. In this way, even if the US occupies the major cities, these small units can conduct guerrilla warfare in the mountains and cities, harassing supply lines and causing destruction, making the US fall into a quagmire where occupying is easy but clearing is difficult;

The second step is to mobilize the entire population, in addition to the regular army, they have mobilized a large number of militias. Maduro even said he wants to form 4 million militias. This way, the US cannot distinguish between soldiers and civilians, and it's a dilemma whether to attack or not, while also bearing moral pressure;

The third step is to create international public opinion. Maduro constantly denounces the US as "imperialist aggression" on television, aiming to gain support from the international community. After all, even Britain is upset with the US's actions, directly stopping intelligence sharing, saying it may violate international law.

But Venezuela also has many hidden problems. There are reports that they can't even supply food and supplies to their army, how can they fight when hungry? Moreover, Maduro's popularity is not high, and his ruling base is not solid. Whether he can unite the people in a real war is still uncertain.

Now the most critical question is: Is Trump really going to take action? There is a possibility, but it's unlikely to be a large-scale invasion.

Firstly, there is no domestic support in the US. Polls show that 47% of Americans oppose a ground attack on Venezuela. Democratic members of Congress have also criticized Trump, saying he is dragging the US into another conflict without end.

Secondly, there is a lot of international pressure. Legal experts say that a military strike violates international law, and even allies like the UK are not cooperating. Other countries are even less likely to do so. Trump's own attitude is also unpredictable, which seems more like "maximum pressure", trying to force Maduro to step down, rather than actually starting a large-scale war.

Of course, the US has authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations, and such covert actions are more likely to escalate the situation. If there's a miscalculation, the possibility of an accidental clash is not negligible.

In summary, the waters in the Caribbean have become completely murky. This "peace president" Trump, will he use a war to prove he's not a paper tiger? Can Maduro's 200,000 troops stabilize the regime? We'll see in a few days.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7572081181102015010/

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