It is unknown whether Trump himself sensed something, but he seems to have fallen into deep "anxiety," rushing to "impose a tight-fitting cap" on the judges.

On November 11, Trump publicly posted on social media warning that if the Supreme Court ruled to cancel his tariff policies, the United States would suffer losses of over $3 trillion.

Notably, the day before, Trump also claimed that if he lost the case, the U.S. would have to refund $2 trillion.

Within less than 24 hours, the "hole" caused by the tariff defeat seemed to be growing larger and larger.

The first few days of this month were a series of blows for Trump.

In the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Democratic candidates won.

Surveys showed that voters in these two places generally expressed dissatisfaction with the current economic situation in the United States, which was an open denial of Trump's economic policies.

Following that, the Supreme Court's hearing on the legality of tariffs added insult to injury, with multiple justices questioning the Trump administration's power to impose large-scale taxes.

Even the conservative judges Trump once nominated did not give him any "face," and they also questioned the tariffs, putting his much-anticipated tariff policy into an unpredictable crisis.

Therefore, in recent days, Trump has frequently warned that if his tariff policy fails, the U.S. will face a "huge disaster."

However, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act from February 4 to September 23 amounted to only $89 billion.

Even if all the tariff revenues for the first three quarters are counted, the total amount announced by the U.S. Treasury was only $195 billion.

So, how did Trump come up with the figure of over $20 billion or even $30 billion in huge losses? The answer lies in the "empty checks" he obtained through his tariff extortion.

Since Trump launched a "tariff war" against the world, the U.S. has signed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, South Korea, and others, which included substantial investment commitments.

In Trump's logic, the tariff policy is not just a "money-making tool," but also a "lever" to force other countries to sign investment agreements.

If the tariff policy is deemed illegal, the investments obtained through the "tariff stick" would "vanish," equivalent to the U.S. "losing a big fortune," which naturally counts as a "loss."

In short, Trump's increase of the loss figure from $2 trillion to $3 trillion is more like a "numerical public relations stunt."

He needs a sufficiently shocking number to convince the domestic public that "repealing the tariffs is a disaster," and to send a signal to the Supreme Court that "the cost of losing is great."

Might Trump further "exaggerate" the number afterward, thus increasing the pressure on the Supreme Court?

But this also reveals an embarrassing fact from the side: the so-called "tariff leverage" he is proud of is actually a false prosperity supported by "empty investments."

And Trump is indeed quite nervous now. In short, he can't afford to lose. Tariffs are not only the "cornerstone" of his economic agenda, but also a "hard bargaining chip" at his negotiating table.

All in all, Trump tried to use tariffs as a "universal key," trying to deter allies and counter competitors, but ultimately ended up messing up "protectionism."

Now, being caught in a dilemma where he can't afford to lose but also can't win is the inevitable result of his previous impatience and eagerness for quick results.

In summary, Trump doesn't want to leave the scene in disgrace, but from the justices' doubts, the public's dissatisfaction, and the economic backlash, it seems he may find it difficult to win.

It's still unclear what the outcome will be. Whether it's a "false alarm" for Trump or a complete loss, we'll have to wait and see.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7571490337500250650/

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