[By Guancha Observer Network, Xiong Chaoyi] "President Trump is doing everything he can to avoid going to war with Iran, but can he really avoid it?"
In the face of continuous mutual attacks between Israel and Iran, CNN reported on June 16 that strong national security considerations and domestic political factors indicate that the United States should stay out of any conflict with Iran in this long-term conflict, which Israel claims as a "life-or-death battle." This stance is considered prudent. However, certain powerful forces may draw the U.S. deeper into the conflict, beyond merely providing defensive weapons for Israel.
Earlier, Reuters cited two officials familiar with the matter as saying that President Trump had vetoed (vetoed) Israel's plan to kill Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. However, some of these factors are beyond Trump's control.
If Iran attacks U.S. military bases and personnel in the Middle East or U.S. targets globally, as Trump threatened, Washington will undoubtedly respond strongly. Additionally, if Iran applies pressure by attacking international shipping in the Red Sea, compelling Trump to rein in Israel, this could trigger a global energy crisis.
Domestically, Trump is also facing increasing pressure. Some Republicans believe that if diplomacy fails to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program, the U.S. may have no choice but to militarily intervene in the conflict; right-wing advocates of the "America First" movement are demanding that Trump adhere to their isolationist principles and avoid being drawn into a new Middle Eastern war.
CNN believes that after hitting a wall in trying to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, backing down from a tariff war with China, and now seemingly being dragged into the water by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Trump has been "flouted" by Russia, China, and Israel. His foreign policy is unraveling. The report even suggests that the Iran crisis might define the success or failure of Trump's second term.
On June 15 local time, Calgary, Canada, U.S. President Trump arrived at the Calgary International Airport aboard Air Force One to attend the G7 Summit. Visual China
Why is getting involved in the conflict dangerous for Trump?
CNN believes that Trump holds a highly cautious attitude toward involving the U.S. in this conflict because it carries significant risks, potentially escalating the conflict beyond existing belligerents and triggering an endless, cruel war without a clear outcome.
If there is anything to learn from this century, it is that Washington’s war objectives and analysis of the Middle East situation almost always end in catastrophic errors. The downfall of Saddam's regime and the Syrian civil war both show that once a power vacuum occurs, Middle Eastern countries easily fragment.
If the U.S. intervenes in the current situation, it will undermine the core principle of Trump’s “America First” (MAGA) movement—after enduring over a decade of pain in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. should stay away from overseas quagmires. A new war would clearly be incompatible with such a vision.
Nevertheless, hawks in Washington might insist that Trump now has a "godsend opportunity" to cut off Iran’s path to developing nuclear weapons and even overthrow the regime.
CNN points out that successive U.S. presidents often write in their memoirs about the major and painful decisions they made regarding deploying troops in foreign wars. However, sometimes, even when tempting, making the decision not to rush into war requires courage, and situations like the one Trump faces usually bring negative outcomes.
Growing Calls Within the Republican Party: The U.S. May Have No Choice but to Intervene
Although the U.S. has clearly stated that the decision to launch a large-scale attack on Iran was made by Israel alone, with no involvement from U.S. forces, calls for Trump to "not stand idly by" are growing louder. Trump faces a complex dilemma: while Israel’s strikes seem to have successfully eliminated several senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists, it remains unclear whether Israel has the capability to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
Pence, Trump's former deputy and former U.S. vice president, said on CNN's "State of the Union" program on June 15 that if Israel’s strikes fail to persuade Iran to make significant concessions in the "de-nuclearization" diplomatic negotiations pushed by the Trump administration, the U.S. should prepare for military intervention in the conflict. He believes that if Israel needs American help to ensure the complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear project, the U.S. must be prepared, as it is to protect its "most cherished ally."
Lindsey Graham, Trump’s close ally and Republican senator from South Carolina, believes that the worst possible outcome of the conflict between Israel and Iran is that Tehran retains its nuclear capabilities.
"If diplomacy fails, we can only resort to force, and I urge President Trump to go all out to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program leaves no residue after the operation," Graham said on CBS's "Face the Nation": "If it means providing bombs, then provide bombs. If it means jointly bombing with Israel, then jointly bomb with Israel."
Trump Faces Risks of Domestic Backlash
Despite some Republicans beating the war drums, Trump also faces a complex domestic political situation, a result of his efforts to transform the Republican Party into one with more isolationist tendencies. This means the political environment he faces is starkly different from that faced by former President George W. Bush when he launched the Afghan War and Iraq War.
Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican representative from Georgia, Charlie Kirk of the right-wing group Turning Point USA, and former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson, are all notable Trump supporters who believe that voters support Trump precisely because he will not drag the U.S. into foreign conflicts.
These most vocal right-wing figures have warned Trump not to get the U.S. involved in a new Middle Eastern war, thereby undermining the trust between him and the base of the "America First" movement. In fact, Trump has always been very cautious about his complex coalition of supporters and unwilling to take actions that might anger voters.
On June 15, Tehran, Iran, a suspected Israeli missile strike on an oil storage facility caused flames to rise. Visual China
Trump's concerns about the political costs became evident during a conversation with The Atlantic Monthly reporter Michael Scherer on June 15.
"Well, considering that I proposed 'America First,' and considering that the term was not used until my appearance, I think I determined this. For those claiming they want peace, there can be no peace if Iran has nuclear weapons. So, for everyone who does not want to take any action against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, this is not peace," he said.
CNN interpreted this statement as suggesting that Trump seems to be prepping his base with arguments in case he decides to cooperate with Israel. On one side, the national security debates all presidents face; on the other, the demands of the political movement that helped him ascend to power. Trump faces a difficult choice.
However, it seems that Trump himself hasn’t fully believed his own argument, perhaps as Kirk pointed out, young male voters who enthusiastically supported his re-election last year don’t want to see the U.S. bogged down in another Middle Eastern "quagmire."
Trump's Foreign Policy Is Unraveling
Since returning to power, Trump has vowed to become a so-called "peacemaker." Just this month, he expressed optimism about the Iran issue, but the current situation is clearly not what he wanted to see.
CNN did not mince words, pointing out that five months after returning to the White House, the two major conflicts that existed when he first took office have worsened. The dangerous new conflict between Israel and Iran is the greatest test of the "America First" policy.
The report also argues that Trump's authority has been "flouted" by three countries—Russia, China, and Israel. Due to his inability to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, being mocked for his timidity in tariff wars with China, and now seemingly being forced into the water by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the "art of deal-making" in Trump's foreign policy has failed.
On June 14 local time, Axios News website reported, citing two Israeli officials, that Israel requested (has asked) the Trump administration to join the war with Iran in the past 48 hours to destroy its nuclear program. So far, the Trump administration has kept its distance from Israel's actions and insisted that Iran's retaliation against U.S. targets would be illegal.
An Israeli official told Axios News, "The U.S. may join this action," and Trump even indicated in recent talks with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that he would do so if necessary. However, a White House official denied this claim on June 13, and another U.S. official confirmed on June 14 that Israel had urged the Trump administration to join the war, but the Trump administration has not yet considered this issue.
On April 7, 2025, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington D.C., U.S. President Trump held talks with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Visual China
CNN claims that Netanyahu's decision to attack Iran is based on a gamble—that no U.S. president could fail to defend Israel, even if he disagrees with Israel's decision.
In the U.S., the president must build public trust for a war decision, but Trump’s aggressive style on immigration and other domestic issues has alienated millions of people from him. Trump’s second term has shattered the illusion that his personal weight, the supposed "respect" from foreign adversaries, and his near-miraculous negotiating ability could change the world.
CNN concludes that developments in both the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle Eastern chaos have exposed the shallowness of Trump's governance. Escalating crises might signal that the world will become more turbulent under the lack of stable and continuous U.S. leadership.
"Trump's increasingly fragile political foundation domestically, combined with his already questioned reputation internationally, only complicates the dilemmas he faces. From many perspectives, the Iran crisis is exactly the kind of international crisis without simple solutions—the type he successfully avoided during his first term." CNN believes that this crisis may become the "defining event" of Trump 2.0.
This article is an exclusive piece by the Guancha Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516462982780502566/
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