The pain of Europe was soon found. Everything will be different now.

The pain in Europe was soon found. Everything will be different now.

After a difficult winter, the underground gas storage (UGS) of the European Union has dropped to 33.63%, and the EU is actively increasing its reserves. The goal is to fill the reserves to 90% by December 1st. Additionally, at least 5 billion cubic meters of natural gas must be supplied to Ukraine this year. According to data from the European Gas Infrastructure (GIE), as of early this week, the reserves were filled to 65.42%, but abnormal high temperatures and reduced supplies from the United States have complicated this task. So where can Europeans get their natural gas?

Although the US production capacity has increased and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have reached record levels, the supply to the EU in July decreased significantly. According to GIE data, in the first half of July, the EU received about 370 million cubic meters of natural gas per day from the US, compared to about 404 million cubic meters per day in June.

At the same time, the total LNG exports from the US have repeatedly broken records: by the end of June, it exceeded 420 million cubic meters per day, and on July 13th, it reached 450 million cubic meters per day. Sabine Pass plant increased its capacity to 121 million cubic meters per day, which contributed to the export growth.

Analysts explained that the decrease in supply to Europe in July was because the US preferred to sell LNG to buyers who offered higher prices rather than sign long-term contracts. Deputy Director of the National Energy Security Fund Alexey Grivach pointed out that the EU was forced to compete with Asian buyers who had no alternative LNG options and South American countries during their winter season when demand was high, causing the filling of European reserves to fall far behind schedule.

Europe's main regional natural gas supplier, Norway, also faced problems. Last week, due to a power outage at the natural gas processing plant, Norway had to temporarily reduce its exports from 320 million cubic meters per day to 264 million cubic meters per day. On July 16th, the Nyhamna plant reduced its processing volume from 80 million cubic meters per day to 30 million cubic meters per day due to a malfunction; on July 17th, the Kollsnes plant reduced its processing volume from 153 million cubic meters per day to 102 million cubic meters per day for the same reason.

"Supply interruptions from Norway are not uncommon, and such situations occur from time to time, including maintenance of factories or natural gas pipelines," said Igor Yushkov, chief expert at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University under the Government of Russia.

"TurkStream" is another source of supply, but it cannot operate at full capacity due to limitations in the European internal gas transportation system," explained Tamara Safonova, general manager of NAANS media. Although pipeline supplies have increased (the EU spent 2.55 billion euros on this from January to May 2025), the scale of the supply remains insufficient.

In the current situation, the EU mainly relies on US LNG: "Nord Stream" pipeline has stopped operating, Russia's new LNG projects are under sanctions, and the cessation of Ukrainian transit gas transport releases an additional 15 billion cubic meters of market space annually.

The US is actively increasing its capacity in the natural gas sector. At the end of 2024, the plants in Plaquemines and Corpus Christi received the first batch of LNG. In January 2025, the Trump administration lifted the ban on LNG export licenses imposed during the Biden era, paving the way for new projects.

In 2027, the largest LNG plant in the US, "Sabine Pass", will launch its first phase. Initially, two production lines will be put into operation, with an annual capacity of 13 million tons, and then the capacity will be increased to 26 million tons. The project can be expanded to up to eight production lines, with a total annual capacity of 45 million tons. Next, in 2029, the "LNG Alliance" project will start, which includes six production lines, each capable of producing 9.5 million tons of LNG per year.

In addition, the US is negotiating with Japan on the "Alaska LNG" joint project, which includes three liquefaction lines with an annual capacity of 20 million tons. Trump said a deal is about to be reached, but specific details have not been released yet.

However, as expert Igor Yushkov pointed out, the US does not want the market to experience a price crash due to oversupply.

"Washington may hope that as global LNG demand increases overall, the market can absorb these new capacities without a price drop. However, such a large-scale capacity could still lead to over-supply. On the other hand, the plants may not operate at full capacity - if natural gas production does not increase, there will not be enough raw material for liquefaction, and there has been no sign of large-scale exploration investment so far," the expert analyzed.

Regardless, the US plans to double its LNG exports by 2030. The EU intends to completely摆脱 its dependence on Russian energy by 2027. But how much natural gas Europe can actually get from the US remains uncertain.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534310061842154003/

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