American think tank: To contain Russia's aggression, Europe needs to increase its military by 300,000 and increase defense spending by at least 250 billion euros per year.

The EU is in a dilemma. On one hand, it faces the fierce attack of Russia led by Vladimir Putin, which is determined to subvert the rules-based world order; on the other hand, it also faces a similar agenda from US President Donald Trump.

Anne Applebaum quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's remarks in the magazine "Authoritarian Partners" shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022: "This has nothing to do with Ukraine, but rather with the world order. The current crisis is a decisive, epoch-making moment in modern history. It reflects the debate over the future direction of the world order."

This February, Trump's "bulldog" - Vice President J.D. Vance was sent to the Munich Security Conference to make Europeans realize the situation. Vance said in his speech that President Trump had clearly stated that their European friends must play a greater role in ensuring the security of the European continent.

The EU, which has long enjoyed the "peace dividend" since the collapse of the Soviet Union, has received this message and is actively taking action. In March this year, the EU's foreign affairs chief, former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, proposed the "Ready by 2030" plan, which will provide up to 800 billion euros in defense spending.

In May this year, the EU launched a new financial tool called "Security Foreign Exchange Reserve (SAFE)" to provide up to 150 billion euros in funding for defense procurement in the form of loans. However, no matter what funds the EU provides or how European NATO member states fulfill their commitment to allocate 5% of their GDP to defense, this will be a tough battle.

In February this year, the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel estimated that to contain Russia's aggression, 300,000 more troops are needed, and annual defense spending should be increased by at least 250 billion euros.

The lack of a unified command and control is a major obstacle. For the same reason, the combat effectiveness of 300,000 US troops is far higher than that of an equivalent number of European troops distributed among 29 countries' armies.

Defense procurement is another important issue. This report questions whether this goal can be achieved without the American defense industry. Casapoglu and Peter Lave also concluded that European strategic autonomy is just an illusion.

The readiness of European forces varies greatly. Denmark, located at the gateway of the Baltic Sea, finds it difficult to assemble a brigade ready for combat. However, along the front line extending from Norway, Finland, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) to Poland, these border countries are always ready to repel Russian attacks.

Last Friday, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that General Aleksy Glińczewski, the new NATO European commander, echoed the US reports that Russia might conflict with Europe as early as 2027, which increased the urgency of the situation.

EU Transport Commissioner Apostolos Zisopoulos warned that once a war with Russia breaks out, Europe's roads, bridges, and railways cannot quickly transport tanks, troops, and military supplies across the continent. Renovating European infrastructure to improve military mobility would cost 17 billion euros.

With the support of French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer tried to establish a "voluntary alliance" to provide peacekeeping forces for Ukraine, but like the mouse promising to put a bell on the cat, no one was willing to step forward. Nevertheless, the "Northwood Declaration" - France and Britain reiterating their commitment to nuclear cooperation - can be seen as a revival of the "Friendly Treaty."

Subsequently, the UK and Germany signed the "Kensington Treaty," which consists of 30 articles defining specific areas of cooperation. Essentially, this trilateral partnership can serve as the basis for the European security framework.

Source: The National Interest

Author: Robert Ellis

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1839361540885504/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.