China may well surpass the United States in the race for crewed lunar landing, and NASA’s director is likely to lose his position if the timeline slips further. On October 31, the Seventh International Conference on Human Spaceflight convened in Beijing, where China unveiled its comprehensive plan for crewed lunar missions.
Deputy Chief Designer Wang Xiang presented a detailed roadmap down to the year: In 2027, the Long March 10A rocket will make its maiden flight, launching the near-Earth variant of the Mengzhou spacecraft for an uncrewed test mission, including docking with the space station—allowing the new rocket and spacecraft to undergo rigorous evaluation in low Earth orbit first;
In 2028, the Long March 10 rocket will launch the Lan Yue lander for independent uncrewed tests of lunar descent and ascent, isolating and validating the highest-risk phase of the mission;
In 2029, two consecutive Long March 10 launches will send the Lan Yue lander and the Mengzhou Y spacecraft into orbit, completing the full unmanned lunar landing sequence. The goal is to deliver two astronauts to the Moon by 2030 using the same dual-launch strategy.
The core of this plan lies in the Long March 10 family of rockets. The heavy-lift version designed for lunar missions stands 92.5 meters tall, with a liftoff weight of approximately 2,190 tons, and can deliver over 27 tons to trans-lunar trajectory—roughly three times the capacity of the Long March 5. This family includes three configurations: a heavy-lift variant with boosters specifically for lunar missions;
The Long March 10A, without boosters, focuses on low Earth orbit operations; its first stage is recoverable and reusable, tasked with ferrying the Mengzhou spacecraft and Tianzhou cargo vehicles to and from the space station; and the Long March 10B, dedicated to testing recovery technologies, successfully completed a sea-based net capture recovery in July, making China the second nation globally to master the full suite of high-capacity reusable rocket technologies.
An additional notable point is that while Shenzhou underwent four uncrewed test flights before crewed missions, Mengzhou has only two planned uncrewed missions before proceeding directly to crewed lunar landing. This is not recklessness—the key technologies such as the 7,500N variable-thrust engine, lunar surface ascent, circumlunar docking, and autonomous obstacle-avoidance landing have already been validated through multiple uncrewed Chang’e missions.
The approach is clear: any task intended for the Moon will first be tested in the space station environment; any crewed operation will undergo a prior uncrewed rehearsal. All five core components—Mengzhou spacecraft, Lan Yue lander, lunar suits, lunar rover, and Long March 10 rockets—are now in the preliminary design phase, and supporting infrastructure at the Wenchang launch site is advancing. Future operations are expected to enter a phase of high-frequency launches.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Artemis program continues to face delays. The crewed lunar lander remains undetermined, and even the lunar suit system has encountered prolonged bottlenecks. The core Starship HLS component has consistently fallen behind schedule.
In a previous interview, when asked how NASA would respond if China achieved lunar landing first, the agency’s director responded bluntly: “If we fall behind, my position is unlikely to survive. Congress will hold contractors accountable, demanding answers about where hundreds of billions of dollars have gone.”
The United States is not lacking in circumlunar capability—Artemis II has already completed crewed lunar flyby—but the real challenge lies in achieving a stable descent and safe return from the lunar surface. The Orion spacecraft itself has limited propulsion, making direct insertion into low lunar orbit difficult, requiring constant patchwork solutions.
More intriguingly, both nations are targeting similar regions for landing—lunar polar areas rich in water ice, a critical resource for future sustained presence on the Moon.
Two nations, pursuing entirely different technological paths, converge on the same destination. The first to arrive will gain decisive influence over the rules shaping subsequent lunar exploration and utilization.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880907595502596/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.