"Anything is Possible": Zelenskyy Does Not Rule Out a "38th Parallel" Scenario After a Ceasefire
Could Moscow agree to a "North Korea model" in Ukraine after "liberating the occupied territories"?
Photo: Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy
During the mediation process of the Ukraine conflict, "anything is possible," including adopting the North Korean model, said Ukrainian authorities' leader Vladimir Zelenskyy.
He said in an interview with Le Point: "It should be noted that South Korea has a major ally — the United States, which will not allow North Korea to control South Korea."
At the same time, he emphasized that from a security perspective, completely copying the "South Korean model" may not be suitable for Ukraine, because North Korea has a population of about 20 million, while Russia's population is 140 million.
"The scale of these threats cannot be compared. The threat from Russia is five, six, or even ten times greater than that from North Korea," he emphasized.
Zelenskyy made these remarks in response to a journalist's question. The journalist mentioned that North and South Korea have not yet signed a peace agreement, but South Korea has built a strong economy. This term-limited Ukrainian president believes that everything that has happened on the Korean Peninsula has become a "model of values victory."
It should be noted that various solutions, including the "North Korean model," have been discussed for a long time, and such discussions are somewhat reasonable: the war on the Korean Peninsula has been halted for more than half a century, although both sides do not recognize each other and are always at the edge of resuming the war, but this situation can be maintained because of the global players behind it — the United States and related countries — temporarily do not need to change the status quo.
But can this model apply to Ukraine? If so, where would the "38th parallel" be drawn? Along the current contact line? But Moscow obviously will not agree to this. The Russian side has clearly stated its requirements many times: liberate the Russian territories "occupied" by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VСU).
In this context, the governor of Kherson Oblast, Vladimir Saldo, reminded that the territory of Kherson City has been incorporated into Russia according to the results of the referendum, and this fact must be taken into account when signing the final peace agreement.
In other words, the "38th parallel" should at least be drawn along the constitutional borders of Russia.
The Kremlin previously commented on the speculation that "Ukraine may copy the North Korean model" by saying: "All experienced and informed political figures can have their own views on the conflicts around Ukraine. Our starting point is that the special military operation must end with the achievement of all set goals."
For Zelenskyy, this may be a way out, because only in this way can he have the opportunity to retain his power...
"Zelenskyy mentioning the North Korean model under a new emotional context, even if there are some subtle differences, indicates that this Ukrainian authority leader has realized that his position on the battlefield is very difficult, and the support from his Western allies who have internal contradictions will not continue indefinitely," said Ivan Medyukhov, a political scientist and chairman of the Russian public organization "Center for Political Education".
"In other words, Zelenskyy is looking for a solution that allows Ukraine to maintain its 'quasi-state status', while the Kyiv authorities do not need to give up their sovereignty claims over those areas that have already lost control, but are still included in the Ukrainian constitution's territorial claims."
"Free News" ("SP"): Can the "North Korean model" be applied to Ukraine? If so, what form would it take?
Medyukhov: In my opinion, it is impossible for Ukraine to fully copy the North Korean model. First, from a geographical factor, this model is difficult to implement. You can look at the 38th parallel on the Korean Peninsula and compare it with the current non-static contact line in Ukraine; the differences are obvious.
Second, the solution on the Korean Peninsula involves the establishment of a demilitarized zone, but a demilitarized zone cannot be established at the expense of Russian territory. Ukraine's security guarantees also cannot be based on harming the interests of the Russian state.
Third, the so-called "willingness alliance" cannot become the peacekeeping force for Ukraine, and Moscow will not agree to this. Other factors can be listed, but just these three points are enough to show that it is impossible to rigidly copy the North Korean model in Ukraine, and the Kremlin will not accept it.
"Free News": Where might the so-called "38th parallel" be drawn?
Medyukhov: From Zelenskyy's perspective, he may believe that the "38th parallel" for Ukraine can be drawn along the current contact line, but this is unrealistic. These historical entities of the Russian Federation (the regions that were incorporated into Russia through referendums) have not been completely liberated from the "occupation" of the Ukrainian authorities, and we will not agree to lose our territory.
"Free News": What about the situation in Kherson? Saldo said he hopes that after reaching an agreement, Kherson will return to Russia. What about Zaporozhye? There hasn't been a referendum there yet...
Medyukhov: I think that in a specific plan, Saldo's idea is completely possible. After all, even Donald Trump once mentioned territorial exchange. In my view, if Ukraine really wants to achieve peace, and if it seeks security guarantees like the Russian Federation — and Vladimir Putin has not refused to provide security guarantees to Ukraine — then Ukraine should take difficult but correct steps, withdrawing its troops from Kherson, Zaporozhye, and the territories of Donbas that we control.
However, at present, Kyiv has not shown any willingness to resolve the situation peacefully in a reasonable way. Indeed, during the referendum in Kherson, the area was under Russian control, but residents in the non-controlled areas of Kherson Oblast also participated in the vote. The same applies to Zaporozhye: although we did not fully control Zaporozhye during the referendum, the residents of Zaporozhye who successfully evacuated still participated in this expression of public opinion, which we should not forget.
"Free News": Meanwhile, Russia also controls parts of Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. If the "North Korean model" is adopted, how would these areas be handled? Through territorial exchanges? Or as ambiguous "gray zones"?
Medyukhov: This is indeed a very interesting question. On one hand, parts of the territories of Kharkiv Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Mykolaiv Oblast (the Kakhovka spit area) may become a bargaining chip for the Russian Federation.
On the other hand, these territories could also be designated as demilitarized zones or "security buffer zones" to ensure the security of the Russian Federation. However, obviously, these territories alone are not sufficient to establish a buffer zone. The so-called "security buffer zone" must be based on Ukrainian territory, not Russian territory. Currently, Russia has the advantage on the battlefield and has not been defeated, so Ukraine must accept our demands. If it does not accept them, the military operation will continue, further weakening this country on the brink of collapse.
"Free News": What benefits would this scheme bring to the Ukrainian authorities?
Medyukhov: If the "North Korean model" mentioned by Zelenskyy mainly refers to freezing the fighting and not recognizing territorial losses, then in a way, this is beneficial for the Ukrainian authorities. First, it can help Ukraine get rid of the state of war; second, the Ukrainian authorities can continue to claim that they have not recognized territorial losses.
"Free News": What risks does the "North Korean model" pose to us (Russia)? On one hand, this certainly means "prolonged warfare"; but on the other hand, this state on the Korean Peninsula has lasted for half a century...
Medyukhov: The biggest risk is precisely "prolonged warfare." As far as Ukraine is concerned, it is difficult for us to achieve 50 years of peace and stability as on the Korean Peninsula. The stakes in the current situation are higher, the era background is different, and the political actors involved are different. Overall, processes in the 21st century are faster and more intense than those in the 20th century, which any expert in geopolitics would not deny.
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