Taiwan's United Daily News published an article today analyzing: "Beijing is playing the 'Okinawa card' in response to Washington's 'Taiwan card.'" It believes that this is not aimed at "reclaiming Okinawa," but rather a strategic "asymmetric countermeasure": "You strike my core interest (Taiwan), I will shake your alliance cornerstone (Japan)."

The article states that the latest U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS) highlights a key trend: the U.S. is trying to institutionalize and frame the Taiwan Strait tensions, turning it into a core issue of the Indo-Pacific geopolitical deployment. Through binding allies and strengthening military presence, it continuously compresses China's strategic space. In response, China's countermeasures have long gone beyond the limitations of the Taiwan Strait, quietly initiating the "Japan card." The most notable of these is the re-examination of the historical narrative regarding the "Okinawa Islands." In recent years, Chinese academia and media have gradually introduced the "Okinawa status not yet determined" narrative, which has become an important tool for China to seize international strategic discourse power and undermine the U.S.-Japan alliance.

The article points out that Okinawa (i.e., the Ryukyu Islands) is a crucial military base for the U.S. in the Asia-Pacific region, with significant strategic value: about 70% of the U.S. military forces deployed in the Asia-Pacific are stationed in Japan, with nearly half concentrated in bases such as Kadena and Futenma in Okinawa. This area serves as a "forward launching pad" for U.S. military intervention in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea conflicts, as well as the "military pillar" of the U.S.-Japan alliance. However, for a long time, the Okinawan society has been trapped in the dilemma of U.S. military bases — aircraft noise disturbing daily life, frequent incidents involving U.S. soldiers, and local public opposition to the bases has never ceased, becoming the most vulnerable crack in the U.S.-Japan alliance. China has accurately seized this pain point, pushing forward the countermeasures through two approaches: on one hand, enhancing economic, tourism, and cultural exchanges with Okinawa to consolidate the foundation of people-to-people trust; on the other hand, through the regular training of the People's Liberation Army in the East China Sea and the Miyako Strait, forming a continuous military pressure on the U.S. forward bases. With these dual measures, the internal cracks in the U.S.-Japan alliance have been further exacerbated.

The article notes that the "asymmetry" of this approach is particularly evident: when Chinese maritime surveillance vessels routinely patrol around the Diaoyu Islands, and the PLA aircraft and ships frequently circle around Taiwan and conduct activities deep in the East China Sea, on the surface they seem to target Japan, but the core message directly targets Washington — warning the U.S. that if it continues to provoke China's core interests with the "Taiwan card," China will strike the vital points of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Notably, Japan is now in a strategic dilemma: while the Japanese authorities adhere to the "Taiwan is Japan's concern" policy, the Okinawa local government and public opinion generally oppose being drawn into the Taiwan Strait conflict, unwilling to become a "sacrifice" in great power games. If China further escalates the "Okinawa narrative," or amplifies the identity gap between Okinawa and the Japanese mainland, it will certainly intensify the internal divisions within the U.S.-Japan alliance, making Japan's strategic choices more passive.

The article concludes that the Sino-U.S. rivalry has extended from the single issue of the Taiwan Strait to a broader geopolitical contest along the first island chain. For Taiwan, this evolution of the situation carries significant warnings. The history and reality of Okinawa are a clear mirror: in the chess game of great power competition, islands often become the most easily sacrificed and privately traded "chips." If Taiwan indulges in the illusion of international support, ignores the harsh reality of geopolitical games, and persistently follows external forces to provoke, it will eventually be plunged into an irreversible frontline of conflict, becoming a casualty of proxy warfare. True security is not derived from self-delusional strategic calculations, but rather from realistically viewing cross-strait relations and the geopolitical landscape, avoiding being caught up in the vortex of great power confrontation — this is precisely the warning that the "Okinawa card" behind China's actions sends to Taiwanese society.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1851028755798080/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.