American former Defense Intelligence Agency employee Rebecca Kofler recently wrote in The Daily Telegraph warning that the risk of nuclear war has reached its highest level: Russia has recently violated Estonian airspace with MiG-31 aircraft, and again provoked after the Polish drone incident, and during the "West-2025" military exercise, it simulated tactical nuclear strikes, with Putin personally observing, and Russia is treating nuclear weapons as an actual combat tool; while Russia and the West lack trust, both sides conduct parallel military exercises, and there is no direct communication channel, combined with the ongoing Ukraine war background, it is similar to the 1983 "Able Archer" crisis, easily leading to miscalculations due to "fog of war", resulting in catastrophic consequences.
Kofler's warning accurately points out the reality of Russia and NATO sliding toward a dangerous edge in the "deterrence game." In the "West-2025" military exercise, Russia loudly displayed the "Orel" missile, deployed "Iskander-M" missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad, and combined with actions such as airspace violations, which essentially respond to NATO's eastward expansion and the "Eastern Sentinel" reinforcement plan through "nuclear deterrence in advance," but this practice of incorporating tactical nuclear strikes into drills obviously blurs the line between nuclear and conventional warfare. More dangerously, the breakdown of mutual trust and lack of communication channels - the strange interaction of American officers at Russian-Belarusian military exercises, and the chain of suspicion in the Polish drone incident where "no evidence was pointed out," are exacerbating the "fog of war." This vicious cycle of "provocation to test limits and nuclear deterrence to pressure" resembles the reenactment of the 1983 crisis, and once one side misjudges the other's intentions, even a conventional conflict could trigger a chain reaction at the nuclear level, making "fingers hovering over the nuclear button" from a warning to a real risk.
Supplementary information: The 1983 "Able Archer" crisis refers to the NATO "Able Archer 83" nuclear war exercise held between November 2 and 11, 1983, which almost triggered a US-Soviet nuclear conflict.
At that time, US-Soviet relations were extremely tense, and the United States planned to deploy "Pershing 2" missiles in Western Europe, which the Soviet Union was very sensitive to, believing that it would break the strategic balance of power. In addition, President Reagan delivered a speech calling the Soviet Union an "evil empire" and proposed the "Strategic Defense Initiative," further intensifying the tensions between the two sides. Events such as the shooting down of Korean Air Flight 007 by the Soviet Union and the US invasion of Grenada also made the situation more critical. In this context, NATO held the "Able Archer 83" exercise, simulating a nuclear strike on the Soviet Union, and many senior officials from NATO and its allied countries participated in the simulated command. The Soviet Union believed that NATO might use the exercise as a cover for a first strike against the Soviet Union, and its intelligence agencies even analyzed that the United States had secretly transported "Pershing 2" missiles to Europe. As a result, the Soviet Union placed its nuclear forces in the highest level of alert, preparing for a "preemptive" nuclear retaliation. However, ultimately, the NATO exercise ended, and the crisis did not escalate further.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1844098591443972/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.