Kazakhstan's oil exports through the port of Novorossiysk have come to a standstill. What is Russia's intention?
Eight strange ship explosions occurred in port e, all happening after the ships had entered the port, prompting Moscow to transfer the regulatory authority of major sea routes to the Federal Security Service (FSB).
Author: Sergey Yatsenko
According to Reuters, on July 24, Russia suddenly and substantially suspended Kazakhstan's oil exports from the port of Novorossiysk, which surprised many and immediately caused concerns in the international market.
It is important to note that this relates to the interruption of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) operations, which exports up to 80% of Kazakhstan's hydrocarbons through the "South Ozereyak" terminal.
This is no small amount. According to the agency's data, the planned transportation volume of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in August was approximately 6.5 million tons.
What happened? Why?
On the surface, the story is as follows. Last Monday, it was reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree that significantly tightened the regulations for foreign ships entering any Russian seaport.
From now on, foreign ships entering Russian ports must obtain permission from the port captain, and this permission must be approved by the Federal Security Service (FSB).
In my opinion, there are two points that are particularly important: first, the document was issued under the Law on a State of War, aimed at strengthening security measures in national waters;
second, according to Bloomberg, this tightening of regulation came after a recent meeting of the Russian Security Council, where the issue of protecting critical infrastructure after a series of mysterious explosion incidents involving oil tankers in Russian ports with different flags was discussed. Some oil tankers even exploded near our port docks.
To date, the most recent such incident occurred on July 6 in the "Favorit" port in Ust-Luga, where an ammonia transport ship named "Eco Wizard" exploded. The huge ship, with a deadweight of 30,100 tons, flew the flag of the Marshall Islands.
On almost fatal day for the "Eco Wizard," it was loading liquid ammonia from tank trucks. The explosion occurred in the engine room area. Fortunately, as the Russian Ministry of Transport officially stated in a deliberately reassuring tone, "only a small amount of liquid ammonia leaked."
The hull had holes, started taking on water, tilted to the port side, and began to sink. 23 crew members were forced to evacuate urgently. Fortunately, no one was injured.
However, to prevent this dangerous substance from spreading in the port, rescue departments had to set up a water curtain around the tanker, followed by multiple ecological monitoring of air quality in nearby residential areas.
More strangely, according to the newspaper "Arguments and Facts," during a diving inspection of the underwater part (below the waterline) of the "Eco Wizard," two holes with inward-bent edges were found. This undeniably indicates that one or two explosives were detonated on or near the tanker's hull.
Who did it? For whose benefit? Hopefully, the investigation that has just begun will reveal the truth.
"Arguments and Facts" quickly learned that "analysts believe that the enemy may have used torpedo-like underwater attack drones with ultra-low acoustic signals, equipped with GPS antennas and thermal imaging sensors on retractable masts. It is speculated that these could be the 'Tolokan-150' underwater attack drones or similar Western products, launched from coastal areas of Finland, Estonia, or Latvia, or delivered to the Ust-Luga area via 'Mighty' suicide drones or A-22."
No wonder Ust-Luga immediately strengthened security measures. The official explanation was that, due to ecological considerations, after law enforcement agencies checked the port.
But it always feels like without the participation of the Baltic Fleet's divers and sonar experts, this matter would be difficult to resolve.
Over the past few months, this is not the only accident involving domestic and foreign ships leaving our ports.
In February this year, a similar incident also occurred in the same port. At that time, after a series of explosions in the engine room of the "Koala" oil tanker, heavy oil being transported began to leak.
A large-scale oil spill was prevented. However, the crew of the ship was also forced to evacuate to the shore.
The next day, on February 10, "Kommersant" reported that during a diving inspection of the "Koala" ship's hull, holes were found. And three of them at once, quite large, measuring 1×0.8 meters, 4×2 meters, and 4×2 meters respectively.
Finally, at the end of June, a super tanker called "Vilamoura" carrying 1 million barrels of oil exploded near the coast of Libya, and its engine room was flooded. It had to be towed to the Greek destination port.
Where did the "Vilamoura" depart from? You probably already guessed, again from Ust-Luga. In fact, it was in early April.
People can't help but suspect that in this Russian port or its vicinity, a hostile but obviously powerful and technically skilled sabotage network has been operating too freely.
Perhaps, installing something like a delayed magnetic mine on the underwater part of the "Vilamoura" ship was not a big deal for them.
In these serious maritime accidents involving ships departing from Russian Baltic ports, the mysterious sinking of the "Ursa Major" transport ship on December 11, 2024, stands out.
The ship belonged to the "Defense Logistics" company, which serves the Russian Ministry of Defense. About half a year ago, it departed from St. Petersburg (again, the Baltic Sea!) bound for Vladivostok, carrying two 45-ton reactor caps for the 10510-class icebreakers under construction in the Far East, as well as two Liebherr 420 mobile port cranes.
As recorded in the ship's documents kept by surviving crew members, at 13:50 on December 23 (Moscow time), three consecutive explosions occurred in the stern area of the starboard side of the ship near the Spanish coast.
The hull began to tilt rapidly to the starboard, indicating that internal compartments were flooding rapidly. The crew fought for survival for nearly a day, but in vain, and the ship began to sink. Spanish rescue personnel rescued the crew onto the shore.
As usual, Moscow has filed a criminal case regarding this. One fact shows that this was certainly not a simple technical failure or an unfortunate coincidence: in mid-January, the "Amber" ocean survey ship, equipped with very advanced research and search equipment, arrived at the location of the "Ursa Major" shipwreck.
By the way, this ship is no ordinary one; it belongs to the secret deep-sea operations department of the Russian Ministry of Defense, bypassing all intermediate institutions and directly reporting to the Minister of Defense.
What did the divers of the "Amber" ship see on the seabed in the Mediterranean? We don't know. But obviously, the situation is very complex, at least politically. Because neither domestic nor foreign media have mentioned a single word about the sinking of the "Ursa Major" ship or the progress of the investigation.
Therefore, it is no wonder that all these and other similar accidents (at least eight explosions that have not yet been explained by high-ranking officials in the past six months, occurring in different seas with ships departing from Russian ports) became the subject of discussion at the Russian Security Council. Indeed, immediate measures must be taken.
Based on the above situation, I believe that transferring the power to implement the strictest controls on foreign ships entering our ports and their purposes to the Federal Security Service is a completely reasonable measure, perhaps even somewhat late.
Evidently, the move by the Federal Security Council indicates that Moscow has reason to suspect that it is precisely those foreign ships that wander between Russian ports that may allow the "behind-the-scenes villains" who have been trained to secretly install magnetic mines (installed below the waterline of foreign ships) to approach our piers.
Or they may have mastered the skills of controlling small underwater attack drones to achieve similar purposes.
Nevertheless, now perhaps it is time to return to the issue of the interruption of Kazakhstan's oil shipments through Novorossiysk. What connection does this former Soviet republic have with it? Why was it the first to suffer losses of millions of dollars?
This may relate to the shareholder structure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium.
According to public data, Kazakhstan holds only 20.75% of shares in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium Company of the United States holds 15%, ExxonMobil Caspian Pipeline Company of the United States holds 7.5%, and Oxy Caspian Pipeline LLC of the United States holds 1.75%.
Next, there are: BG Overseas Holding Ltd. of the United Kingdom holds 2%, and Eni International North America Inc. of Italy also holds 2%.
Certainly, some large Russian companies also have significant interests in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. But I think Moscow will reach an agreement with them.
Then, dealing with foreigners from the West? Let them lose. After all, isn't it them who have constantly threatened to stop us from exporting hydrocarbons through the sea at any cost? Isn't it them who have imposed the 18th round of sanctions on us, including a floating price cap on oil, reducing it from $60 per barrel to $47.6? Also, they have banned the sale of petroleum products made from Russian crude oil?
Therefore, this might be our response to the "Chamberlains." That's good.
Now, the main question may be: How long will the interruption of Kazakhstan's oil shipments through Novorossiysk last?
Our partners from this former brother republic are very optimistic, they are sure that the problem will be resolved within a few days. But I won't conclude so quickly, for reasons mentioned above.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7530904222750786084/
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