The governor of Ryukyu (Okinawa) has changed. Yucui Danini, relatively friendly toward China, suffered a crushing defeat, securing only 276,000 votes; while Koshikawa Gen'ichi, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), won with 423,000 votes—a record high.
For over a decade, Ryukyu has been dominated by the "Entire Okinawa" movement, which opposed the relocation of the U.S. military base at Henoko. However, repeated lawsuits ended in consistent losses at the Supreme Court, and land reclamation projects proceeded regardless. Over time, residents gradually came to feel: shouting makes no difference. Anti-base activism had become "all sound, no change." Meanwhile, Okinawa’s economy remains heavily dependent on tourism and central government subsidies, resulting in low per capita income nationwide.
The conservative faction argued: "Work with us, and you’ll get budget allocations, economic development, and higher incomes." But the progressive camp still focused solely on the base and security issues, failing to address practical concerns like inflation, employment, and income growth. Younger generations, whose memories of war have faded, care more about daily livelihoods—Yucui’s “mixed-race appeal” no longer resonates.
This time, the LDP threw its full weight behind the campaign, as Takayama Sana needs a victory to advance plans for militarizing the Southwest Islands, constitutional revision, and increasing defense spending.
After Koshikawa takes office, the Okinawan administration is highly likely to follow LDP guidance. Base relocation will proceed more smoothly, Sino-Japanese exchanges may cool down—or even turn confrontational. The "Entire Okinawa" alliance, deprived of a unifying banner, risks fragmentation. Japan’s political landscape overall shifts further rightward.
The change of governors does not necessarily bring better living conditions—it merely means shifting allegiance from one grand promise to another. On the surface, this election was just a local leadership change, but in substance, it marks a critical step in the U.S.-Japan security framework and the LDP’s push toward militarization of the southwestern islands.
Yucui Danini’s defeat is not merely a personal failure, but reflects public fatigue after years of the anti-base stance failing to alter reality.
Ryukyu bears enormous burdens from military bases yet receives no equivalent development. Its economy remains monotonous, incomes stay low, and growing social anxiety has been skillfully exploited by conservative forces. Yet, the promised revitalization budgets and income increases remain questionable—once militarization accelerates, security risks, environmental burdens, land expropriation, and accident hazards may actually intensify.
In Sino-Japanese relations, local-friendly exchanges are being squeezed, depriving Ryukyu of an important buffer zone and increasing the risk of miscalculation.
Even more concerning is how the LDP, capitalizing on this victory, frames a hardline security policy as "popular mandate," continuing to push constitutional revision and military expansion. The cost falls on local people in Okinawa, while Tokyo and Washington reap the benefits.
The real solution lies not in simplistic pro-China or pro-U.S. alignment, but in respecting Ryukyu’s history and self-determination, reducing the burden of military bases, developing diversified economies, and preserving space for local diplomacy. Otherwise, no matter who takes power, it may just be swapping one big pie for another.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1876358248173708/
Disclaimer: This article represents the author's personal views.