On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indices all rose.
At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 515.97 points, or 1.12%, to 46,706.58 points. The Nasdaq Composite gained 310.57 points, or 1.37%, to 22,990.54 points; and the S&P 500 Index climbed 71.12 points, or 1.07%, to 6,735.13 points.
On the news front, Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that the federal government "shutdown" is expected to end this week.
In the "Big Seven" tech stocks, Facebook rose more than 2%, Tesla, Amazon, and Google each rose over 1%, Microsoft gained 0.63%, and NVIDIA fell 0.32%.
Meanwhile, a key leveraged indicator measuring the euphoric sentiment in the U.S. stock market has surged to levels exceeding those seen during the Internet bubble of 1999 and the period before the 2007 financial crisis.
Related stock movements, iFinD from Tonghuashun
Looking specifically, most of the big tech stocks saw gains, with Apple rising nearly 4% and its market value increasing by $147.6 billion (approximately RMB 105.17 billion) overnight.
Previously, LoopCapital upgraded its rating for the company from "Hold" to "Buy", noting that the demand trend for its iPhones is improving and publicly stating, "We are now at the beginning of the long-term adoption cycle for Apple's expectations, implying that iPhone shipments will continue to grow throughout 2027." A report from research firm Counterpoint showed that the early sales of the iPhone 17 series were strong in both China and the United States, with sales 14% higher than the iPhone 16 series, with the iPhone 17 base model selling almost double in China.
COMEX gold futures rose 3.82%, closing at $4,374.3 per ounce; spot gold increased 2.48%, ending at $4,357.36 per ounce, with both reaching record highs during the session. COMEX silver futures rose 2.59%, closing at $51.4 per ounce, while Bitcoin also rebounded to $110,000.
Notably, the leverage among U.S. investors has reached peak levels again.
According to information from Chongfeng Trading Desk, data from Deutsche Bank's tracking of NYSE margin debt showed that investor leverage increased by 32.4% over five months from late April to late September, a rate second only to the peak of the Internet bubble in early 2000 and the post-pandemic stimulus period in August 2020.
Related data, Source: Deutsche Bank, Financial Industry Regulatory Authority
Deutsche Bank strategists emphasized that these historical moments have been "poor entry points" for investing in risk assets. More concerning is that the current leverage is accelerating the proportion of margin debt to the U.S. nominal GDP, approaching the historical peak of the third quarter of 2021.
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which measures market fear, once jumped above 28 points on Friday and then fell back below 21 as the U.S. stock market rose. On Monday, the VIX index traded around 20.
Katie Nixon, Chief Investment Officer at Northern Trust, stated in a report to her clients: "Although the U.S. stock market had a slight rebound last Friday, risk assets reflect heightened geopolitical uncertainties—especially in international trade relations. Trade disputes pose significant economic risks for both sides, so achieving some acceptable compromise is crucial."
Additionally, on Thursday of last week, a credit crisis suddenly emerged among U.S. regional banks, triggering a broader market crash. After Zions Bank and Western Alliance Bank disclosed issues related to bad loans, the market panicked, leading to declines in the stock prices of several financial giants and regional banks before they rebounded on Friday.
From the latest news, Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, told CNBC that he believes the government shutdown may end at some point this week. He also said it would be up to the Senate to resolve.
He also stated that if not, the White House would seriously consider taking stronger measures to urge Democrats to participate in negotiations.
As of Monday (October 20), this government "shutdown" has entered its 20th day.
According to U.S. media reports on the 19th, due to the "shutdown," approximately 1,400 employees of the National Nuclear Security Administration under the Department of Energy will begin unpaid leave on the 20th, marking the first time since the agency's establishment in 2000. Previously, due to the government "shutdown," the U.S. Department of Labor's scheduled release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on the 15th was postponed, as well as the scheduled release of the September employment data statistics on October 3rd.
According to multiple U.S. media outlets, on the evening of October 18, large-scale anti-Trump rallies erupted across the country. Approximately 7 million protesters took to the streets, expressing their anger toward Trump under the slogan "No Kings."
Regarding the timeline, the intensive period of U.S. stock market quarterly earnings reports will fully unfold in the next two weeks, entering the core phase of earnings releases.
According to the disclosure schedule, after the U.S. stock market closed on Wednesday, Tesla will be the first to release its Q3 2024 performance report, becoming the first of the seven tech giants to disclose its quarterly results. Following that, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet (Google) will release their respective third-quarter operating results in the coming week.
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