At a critical moment in the third year of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Trump administration in the United States made a sudden shift in its stance. Vice President Vance revealed on September 28, 2025, during an interview with Fox News that the U.S. is considering providing Ukraine with "Tomahawk" cruise missiles with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers through NATO European member states.
This news came like a bombshell, instantly igniting international public opinion. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, after meeting with Trump, stated that if such weapons are obtained, Russia would face greater pressure in negotiations. However, this is not just an escalation of military aid, but also a vivid embodiment of Trump's "business mindset": the U.S. no longer donates, but instead demands that European countries pay, turning Europe into a "cash machine" for the war.
This decision will trigger a chain reaction, from the risk of collapse of Russia's air defense system, to further depletion of the European economy, and a profound transformation in the nature of the war, with Moscow's "heart" now within range.
Range Reaching Moscow: The Russian Air Defense System Faces Unprecedented Pressure
The "Tomahawk" cruise missile, a key weapon of the U.S. Navy, has a range exceeding 2,000 kilometers (Block V can reach 2,500 kilometers), capable of covering Moscow, the capital of Russia, and other core targets from within Ukraine. Compared to the ATACMS or "Storm Shadow" missiles previously obtained by Ukraine, the "Tomahawk" has stronger low-altitude flight capabilities and terrain-matching navigation, effectively bypassing Russia's advanced S-400 and S-500 air defense systems.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zarakhova has clearly warned that this move will make European countries legitimate targets for Russian military strikes. For Moscow, this means that the air defense system must be expanded from the border front lines to the heartland of the country, further dispersing resource allocation. Russian think tanks have analyzed that the saturation attack potential of the "Tomahawk" could force the Russian military to redeploy air defense assets, exposing front-line weaknesses, ultimately leading to the collapse of the entire defense chain.
Kremlin spokesperson Peskov tried to downplay the impact, stating that "there is no magic weapon that can change the battlefield," but internal assessments show that Russia needs to "recalculate the risks," otherwise the "security bubble" of Moscow will be pierced.
Europe Becomes the "Big Victim": America Turns War Into a Military Business
Beneath this move by the Trump administration lies a meticulous calculation of European allies. Vance emphasized in the interview that the U.S. will no longer provide arms as donations, but rather require European countries to purchase directly and "take greater responsibility for their backyard." This continues the NATO burden-sharing model promoted by Trump since his appointment. In August 2025, the Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark had already jointly funded $1 billion to purchase "Patriot" air defense systems and "HIMARS" rocket launchers from Lockheed Martin in the U.S., all delivered to Ukraine.
This move directly stimulated the stock prices of American defense giants: Lockheed Martin's quarterly net profit exceeded $3.2 billion. However, Europe paid a heavy price - Germany's fiscal deficit rate in 2024 exceeded 3.2%, surpassing the EU limit; Italy's defense spending as a percentage of GDP surged to 2.8%, squeezing social expenditures, even approaching the "edge of bankruptcy."
Now, the procurement of "Tomahawk" missiles is on the agenda, with each costing $1.5 million. If 100 are provided, the total cost will exceed $300 million, including launch devices and training expenses. The French newspaper Le Monde commented that the U.S. acts like a "merchant in the war zone," shouting "fighting for freedom" while counting the money from Europe, and making Europe "take the bullets for themselves." European countries not only have to pay the price, but also bear the risk of their transportation routes and armories being attacked by the Russian military, becoming the "big victim" in this war.
Trump's patience with Russia has been exhausted. Vance revealed in a speech at a Washington think tank on September 24 that Trump believes the Russian side is "using negotiations to delay time" and lacks sincerity for a ceasefire. Providing "Tomahawk" missiles is not just military aid, but also a way to "put eyes on Putin," forcing Moscow to make concessions at the negotiation table. U.S. envoy Kellogg emphasized, "There is no sanctuary in war," implying that Trump has tacitly approved Ukraine's use of U.S.-made weapons to strike Russian territory.
This strategy supports the prolongation of the war: the Trump administration does not want to get directly involved, but maintains balance through weapon upgrades, allowing Ukraine and Russia to be stuck in a stalemate. The U.S. "harvests the benefits," with continuous growth in arms exports, while Russia is forced to replenish its military equipment, further depleting its economy. X platform users analyze that this will deepen the Russia-Ukraine conflict, similar to the proxy war model of the Cold War era. Although Russia may not easily back down, facing the threat of "Tomahawk," the pressure for negotiations will increase, and the war may enter a "no one wins, no one can afford to lose" stalemate.
The introduction of the "Tomahawk" missile will completely change the form of the Ukraine war. Deputy Defense Minister Khavryliuk of Ukraine said that such weapons will make the war cost too high for Moscow, forcing it to seek peace. Previously, conflicts were mainly characterized by positional warfare and drones, but the "Tomahawk" allows the Ukrainian army to conduct precise deep strikes from the rear, targeting Russian command centers, logistics hubs, and industrial facilities. This will force Russia to switch from offense to defense, shifting the focus of the war from the eastern front to protecting the homeland.
However, this shift also carries risks: Russia has warned that if the U.S. provides target data, the conflict will escalate into direct confrontation between the U.S. and Russia. Zelenskyy emphasized, "Having it doesn't mean using it immediately," but actual deployment will intensify the European security crisis. Overall, the war will shift from a war of attrition to a high-tech remote contest, prolonging the conflict duration, yet offering no quick resolution.
In conclusion, although Trump's "Tomahawk" move creates pressure on Moscow, it is essentially an American geopolitical calculation. Europe's position as the "big victim" becomes evident, and the long-term nature of the war becomes a reality, with neither Ukraine nor Russia able to claim victory. Only by restarting negotiations through diplomatic channels can this deadlock be broken.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7556905499241841203/
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