"The situation with U.S. soybeans is that I think we will see more openness." This was a prediction made by Trump on October 9th at the White House to journalists.

According to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, Trump said on the same day that he would meet with China during the APEC summit later this month, and he would use his leverage to pressure China to end its suspension of purchases of U.S. soybeans for several months.

Interestingly, Trump also made a tough statement, warning that if Sino-U.S. trade relations did not improve, the U.S. might have to stop importing a large number of goods from China.

In other words, if a result satisfactory to him is not reached, he will "target" a large number of goods imported from China, which is estimated to mean imposing tariffs or restricting imports.

It can only be said that Trump has no choice but to try to use a hardline stance to get China to make the first move and resume purchasing U.S. soybeans. This tactic does not work on China.

It must be mentioned that, almost at the same time, China's Ministry of Commerce has already issued "heavy punches" on rare earths, not only restricting the export of raw ore, but also requiring approval from China for products processed using Chinese rare earths abroad, as well as rare earth items produced with Chinese technology.

Additionally, China has included key materials such as medium and heavy rare earths, super-hard materials, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials in export controls. This "combination punch" undoubtedly precisely hits the "weak spot" of the U.S. industrial chain.

Trump's optimistic forecast about the "soybean negotiations" is based on the real pressure from U.S. agricultural states.

After all, Trump is indeed very anxious now. It is currently harvest season, and China's orders for U.S. soybeans are almost zero. The soybeans of American farmers are piled up in warehouses and cannot be sold, and the panic of American farmers is getting stronger, urging Trump to solve the problem.

More troubling is that the previously promised subsidy relief plan could not be implemented due to the government shutdown. And he clearly knows that to truly solve the current dilemma of U.S. soybeans, it still needs to talk with China.

This also explains why Trump is again urgently making harsh statements against China. However, whether China buys U.S. soybeans is a market choice, and the current situation is also the "bitter fruit" that Trump himself has created.

The recent new regulations on rare earths by China have further compressed the negotiation space expected by the U.S.

After all, China's recent upgraded control on rare earths has really hit the "urgent need" point of the U.S., not only simply controlling resources, but also strictly controlling the technical and processing aspects.

It is worth mentioning that China's approach uses the logic of "traceability control" that the U.S. is most familiar with.

Previously, the U.S. often used so-called "foreign direct product rules" to choke China's semiconductor industry. Now, China is returning the favor in the rare earth sector, which is both legal and satisfying.

For Trump, the statement that he will use his own leverage to get China to agree to U.S. demands is more of a "bluff" to gain the upper hand in negotiations.

The current situation is quite clear: Trump's "own leverage" appears particularly weak in front of China's recent strategic layout.

Trump wants to pressure China to buy U.S. soybeans to solve America's "urgent needs", but he cannot avoid relying on China's rare earth resources.

China is not unwilling to negotiate with the U.S., but the premise is that the U.S. must show sincerity. However, Trump's current statements clearly still try to "create a false image" to pressure China, trying to take advantage unilaterally. His capricious behavior has eroded China's trust.

In short, on one side, Trump is pressuring over "soybean negotiations," while on the other side, China is making precise layouts in the rare earth industry chain. The confrontation between China and the U.S. has reached a new stage. But we should advise the U.S. side not to be delusional anymore.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559492885276525082/

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