Reference News Network reported on April 12 that an article titled "How the Houthi Rebels Outsmarted Washington" was published on the website of the US "National Interest" bimonthly on April 8. The author is Ramon Marks. Compiled as follows:

The Houthis in Yemen refuse to disappear. Despite the efforts of the US Navy and its allies, the Houthis have successfully blockaded one of the most strategically significant waterways in the world - the Red Sea - for nearly two years. Most maritime vessels have been forced to take a longer, more circuitous route around the Cape of Good Hope, which increases transportation costs. Washington has failed to maintain the freedom of navigation in one of the key maritime chokepoints in the world.

The revolution brought by anti-ship missile systems and drones has enabled the Houthis to cut off the strategic passage of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. This ongoing standoff poses a serious threat to the United States, a global naval power.

The first lesson learned by the United States is clearly technological. Drones and land-based missile systems can now destroy surface warships hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away. The attacks by the Houthis on the Red Sea highlight the challenges faced by the US Navy. The US Navy is seeking new ways to counter drones and anti-ship missiles. Its traditional aircraft carriers and other warships, equipped with expensive and complex manned aircraft and missile systems, have proven less suitable for this new era of warfare. It may take several years for the US Navy and Congress to develop and perfect countermeasures against these weapons.

The second lesson is that the US Navy's forces are stretched thin. The US has been forced to deploy two carrier strike groups in the Red Sea to counter the attacks by the Houthis on warships and merchant ships. Despite these powerful forces, the Red Sea remains effectively blocked. Meanwhile, competitive challenges in other parts of the world require the US Navy to remain highly focused.

It is very doubtful whether the US Navy is large enough. America's aging shipyards lack production capacity. Nevertheless, the core mission of the Pacific Fleet is to protect America's allies, the Philippines, Japan, and South Korea. Additionally, the US Navy must also be prepared for Iran.

To address all these diverse challenges, the US will need to keep at least one carrier strike group firmly stationed in the Red Sea - playing an expensive and dangerous game of whack-a-mole with the Houthis' missiles and drones - a solution that is costly and difficult to sustain in the long term.

The Trump administration may have realized this, recently upgrading its strikes against the Houthis, deploying more air power resources (including B2 bombers) into more aggressive actions to decisively defeat the Houthis once and for all. Whether air power alone can achieve a decisive victory remains to be seen. Initial battle conditions indicate that this deployment is insufficient. Despite claims that the US has consumed over $1 billion worth of aviation munitions in just three weeks, attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea have not ceased. If air power cannot permanently suppress the Houthis, Washington will face a difficult decision.

One option is to simply withdraw from the Red Sea and let European allies continue military strikes against the Houthis. After all, Western Europe is economically more dependent on Red Sea shipping routes than the US, and America's European allies have over 1,000 warships available. Unlike the ground military situation in Europe, even if the US Navy withdraws, European navies should still be capable of handling tasks in the Red Sea. Undoubtedly, this may be what Vice President Vance of the United States was thinking when he recently criticized Europeans for "free-riding" in Red Sea operations.

However, withdrawing from the Red Sea fight could send the wrong message, especially after the US hastily withdrew from Afghanistan. This would be interpreted as another sign of American strategic decline. Conversely, the Trump administration's decision to upgrade strikes against the Houthis indicates that the US remains committed to maintaining freedom of navigation in distant maritime regions, even when its economic interests are less affected than those of its allies.

Although the Houthis have not yet hit US warships or manned aircraft, they have continued their attacks. If air power alone cannot eliminate the threat, the US may have to consider further upgrading its strikes, including possible maritime blockades and ground assaults. The Houthis have already pushed the US into a strategic dilemma, and Washington's prestige cannot afford prolonged stalemate. This is a conflict that the US must resolve, otherwise it will incur strategic costs. It is very likely that one day, Washington will have no choice but to either escalate its actions further or face another setback akin to Afghanistan - this time at the hands of the Houthis.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7492374745824969251/

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