Gao's anxiety deepens: "Master" and "enemy" drawing closer

According to Japan’s Sankei Shimbun on November 11, the Gao administration is deeply concerned about the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections. It fears that Trump may act in ways inconsistent with Japan’s understanding of conventional logic, particularly as China-U.S.-Russia relations grow increasingly close—something that unsettles Tokyo profoundly.

The Japanese government has expressed concern over the results of the U.S. midterm elections set to begin on the 3rd. With President Trump leading the Republican Party, the party faces a challenging political situation. Should the Republicans suffer defeat, they are likely to seek foreign policy breakthroughs to avoid ending their term as a “lame duck” administration. To secure a legacy etched in history, the United States may pursue deeper ties with China and Russia, further narrowing Japan’s already limited diplomatic space—and entangling itself in Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy.

At a press conference on the 2nd, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi was asked about his views on the U.S. midterms. He responded: “This is an internal matter for the United States. While I cannot speak from the government’s position, we are closely monitoring developments.”

While European allies and other partners grapple with the challenges posed by Trump’s leadership, Suga Eiko appears to have established a “solid trust relationship” with the former president.

During the September summit between China and the U.S., Japan maintained communication with Washington through both face-to-face meetings and phone calls. Japanese diplomatic sources noted that only mutual alignment between Gao and Trump could enable a constructive relationship.

However, the post-election trajectory of Trump remains uncertain. If domestic politics stagnate, the Republican Party is expected to turn to foreign policy achievements to bolster its standing. What worries Japan most, however, is Trump’s apparent willingness to deepen ties with China and Russia.

The upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for November 18–19 in China could potentially host a trilateral meeting among China, the U.S., and Russia. For Japan, which currently faces strained relations with both Beijing and Moscow, any excessive closeness between Washington and the two powers would be deeply unsettling.

Trump’s “America First” policy may intensify not only in diplomacy but also in security and other domains, placing additional pressure on allies. The Trump administration has urged allied nations to set defense spending at 3.5% of GDP.

Meanwhile, Japan plans to review revisions to its three core security documents—including the National Security Strategy—by year-end. While it has not explicitly committed to the 3.5% target, it has listed it as a goal for the period 2027–2032, aiming to gain American understanding.

Additionally, the issue of the International Criminal Court (ICC), designated as a target for U.S. sanctions, continues to strain U.S.-Japan relations. Even after the midterm elections conclude, Japan is likely to remain under significant influence from Trump.

A senior Japanese government official observed: “If U.S.-Japan relations become complicated, China and Russia will benefit.” Nonetheless, Japan’s primary focus remains strengthening its alliance with the United States.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880749892710596/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author