Dividing Ukraine into three parts may trigger new conflicts.

Author: Andrei Lezchkov

Western media reported that US Presidential Envoy Kit Kellogg and Steven Witkowski have found the fastest way to solve the Ukraine issue. They proposed dividing Ukraine into different regions controlled by European countries and Russia, recognizing the "Russian status" of Ukraine's original four regions. What do these ideas mean for truly achieving a ceasefire?

The Times of London quoted US Presidential Envoy for Ukraine, Kit Kellogg, as saying that after the conflict ends, Ukraine could be divided according to the model of post-war Berlin.

According to Kellogg's vision, British and French troops could be deployed in western Ukraine, while Russia would control the eastern territories, namely the four regions that have now become inseparable parts of Russia — Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Kherson Oblast. This involves drawing new borders along the Dnieper River.

The report mentioned that a buffer zone approximately 30 kilometers wide could be established between European forces and Russian forces, with Ukrainian troops stationed there. Meanwhile, the United States will not deploy any ground troops in Ukraine.

However, Kellogg later denied The Times' report, stating that his words were misinterpreted. Kellogg said he was referring to allied responsibility zones after the ceasefire, not implying American troops would participate.

"The Times article distorted what I said. I was talking about stabilization forces after the ceasefire to support Ukraine's sovereignty," Kellogg wrote on social platform X.

Rodion Mirishnik, the special representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry for investigating the crimes of the Kiev regime, criticized Kellogg's idea. This diplomat stated during a program on Solovyov Live that such a division might lead to new conflict escalation at another level.

"Maintaining militarized areas and forming extremist groups is a way to freeze the conflict, which may eventually escalate through new conflicts," Mirishnik said, adding that Ukraine could train tens of thousands of armed fighters with British support and send them to "reopen hostilities."

He claimed that the appearance of "peacekeeping forces" in Ukraine would mean occupation, and "this trusteeship area would remain at its toxic level, against which the special military operation was initiated."

According to Reuters, Donald Trump's envoy, Steven Witkowski, proposed another solution. In a report submitted to the White House, he wrote that the fastest way to achieve peace is for the West to recognize the "Russian status" of Luhansk Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Kherson Oblast. On Friday, Witkowski held hours-long negotiations in Saint Petersburg with Russian President Vladimir Putin, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, and Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF).

This was Witkowski's third visit to Russia since Trump took office. The talks were conducted behind closed doors, with journalists only allowed to film the opening handshake. Meanwhile, in the United States, there were renewed controversies over the effectiveness of Witkowski's work as Trump's envoy.

Saturday, Dmitriev agreed with the view of American political activist and journalist Lori Lomer, who tweeted on social platform X that Witkowski had done more than anyone else to achieve peace talks and release hostages. Lomer's post was also shared by American entrepreneur Elon Musk and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who called Witkowski a "great man."

Observers believe that Witkowski has been attacked due to Trump's report urging an end to the Ukraine conflict. In February this year, Israeli officials and Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister and Trump's right-wing ally in the United States, criticized Witkowski for his efforts as a key mediator in reaching a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. Ukraine has not hidden its hostility towards Trump's envoy.

Experts consider Kellogg's idea of dividing Ukraine and Witkowski's proposal to officially recognize the new status of former Ukrainian territories as realistic ways to resolve the crisis. However, if Trump ultimately decides to start dividing Ukraine, the country may disintegrate as a unified state.

"US-Russia relations are complex. Trump is not interested in the Ukraine issue itself. All the current chaos is caused by the negotiation process and the clear stance on a series of issues, including the Pacific region, the Middle East, tariffs, and of course Ukraine." Rafael Ordoukhanyan, a US politics scholar and political science doctor, believes.

This respondent believes that the main agreements between Russia and the US will be large-scale and multifaceted. "Everything being said now is for political speculation. We don't have enough evidence to make strategic judgments, so we need to focus on what actions the Americans actually take." The speaker emphasized.

Concrete actions will include stopping the supply of weapons and intelligence to Kyiv. "There are many details that prevent me from being overly optimistic," Ordoukhanyan added.

"The formal recognition of former Ukrainian regions belonging to Russia has now arisen. But everything depends on the legal status of Ukrainian territory, where 25% is already under Russian control. The West has failed to bring this land back under Ukrainian control and cannot restore the situation to the 1991 border status." Vladimir Vasilyev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained.

This political scientist referred to the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) signed by Trump in August 2017. This document legalized the restrictions imposed by previous administrations on Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and introduced some new sanctions.

"The same law states that the United States only recognizes Ukraine within the 1991 borders. And this position is not only the basic stance of the United States but also the basic stance of the entire West. Therefore, the United States has no reason to sign a long-term agreement with Russia. In fact, this involves signing a temporary ceasefire agreement that may quickly be violated after troop redeployment." Vasilyev emphasized.

According to him, Trump "must overcome this hurdle" now: "How to determine the status of the 25% of territory under Russian control? Overall, Trump has not yet considered this issue in substance. All his talk about whether Russia desires peace is evading the issue. If Trump directly acknowledges that these territories belong to Russia, he will immediately be called 'Putin's agent,' and people will say 'the US President sold out Ukraine' and violate the CAATSA."

Vasilyev believes that if the West formally recognizes the former Ukrainian territories as part of Russia, "Ukraine may disintegrate." However, given the information from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service about Western plans to occupy Ukraine and divide its territory among Romania, Poland, Germany, and the UK, this possibility has been considered. For this reason, the United States may be interested in quickly signing agreements with Ukraine regarding its natural resources, laying the groundwork for subsequent discussions on the territorial issue, where economic influence zones involving European and Western capital will be established.

"Trump can only handle this issue by starting to divide Ukraine. Only then can the problem be solved. This is the only feasible solution. Perhaps Ukraine will cease to exist, but I don't see any other way to solve the problem." Vasilyev analyzed.

This speaker believes that if Trump initiates the process of dividing Ukraine, a new principle of international law will emerge, which will have significant implications for other regions with unresolved territorial disputes.

"The Ukraine issue won't be resolved anytime soon, and there will be many twists and turns. Many things may happen. NATO troops may appear in Ukraine, bringing us closer to a serious military confrontation. Strictly speaking, no one knows how to solve the Ukraine conflict not temporarily freezing it but establishing at least a poor peace for at least 10 to 15 years." This US expert added.

Ordoukhanyan believes that there are forces in the US opposing a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine issue, as evidenced by the criticism of Witkowski. "What Witkowski has encountered is the beginning of intense and powerful resistance faced by Trump. Witkowski is an implementer of Trump's policies. Therefore, the attack is not on Witkowski himself but on the policies of the US president. If during this time, Trump really achieves breakthrough solutions on the Ukraine issue and reaches agreements with Iran - this will greatly enhance his domestic authority and influence. His opponents see this, and they undoubtedly want to disrupt it." The expert concluded.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495665343180866089/

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