American Institute for the Study of War (ISW): Ukraine's "fortress" is starting to crumble, with Konstantinovka being the first to be affected.

In order to break through the Tolentsk defense line, drone operators from near Kursk and motorized infantry from near Kula-Khove have arrived in this area.

Author: Konstantin Orshansky

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cited geolocated images and reports from different channels, stating that on the eve of the Easter ceasefire, Russian forces made significant progress in the Tolentsk direction. An offensive on Konstantinovka is expected in May.

The report pointed out that Russian troops advanced towards the "Novo-Tolentskaya" mine located northwest of the city. Russian forces also successfully advanced west of Tolentsk and east of Dachinoye (northeast of Tolentsk).

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on April 18 that all Ukrainian occupying forces in Valentinovka had been completely cleared out; however, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that this settlement had already been liberated on April 14. Additionally, there were advances in the New York (south of Tolentsk) region and the Sukhoy Barak direction.

American experts noted that since early February 2025, Russian forces had repeatedly attempted to advance along the front line between Vozdvyazhenka (northeast of Pokrovsk) and Sukhoy Barak. However, starting from early April, Russian troops achieved more significant results in the Kalinovo region and along the Sukhoy Barak - Alexandropol line.

Sukhoy Barak is located southwest of Tolentsk and east of Pokrovsk. There are units of the 150th Motorized Infantry Division (8th Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade) engaged in combat here. American experts also reported that the 238th Artillery Brigade and the 1st Motorized Infantry Battalion have deployed and are operating in the Drusby region.

According to information from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are actively using armored equipment and conducting reconnaissance and support operations with an unprecedented number of drones. Americans also noted with admiration that Russian forces possess a large number of vehicles equipped with electronic warfare devices and mine-laying equipment.

American open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts believe this indicates a high level of equipment for Russian troops. This contrasts sharply with the shortages in equipment and personnel of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Dmitry Zaporozhets, representative of the Luhansk operational tactical cluster of the Ukrainian armed forces and Major, pointed out that Russian forces have changed their tactics, increasingly employing motorcycle attacks. According to him, this allows Russian assault teams to rapidly advance across the fields around Tolentsk and consolidate positions without additional support.

Reports by Americans stated that on the eve of the Easter ceasefire, Ukrainian armed forces also attempted a counterattack in the Tolentsk direction.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cited a representative of a Ukrainian brigade who said his unit was deployed west of Tolentsk and, despite losses, tried to retake positions according to superior orders but failed.

The source of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), related to the Ukrainian military intelligence department, stated that Russian forces' drones have redeployed from the Kursk region to areas southwest of Tolentsk.

American open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts believe this is the first recorded redeployment, which may indicate that Russian forces will focus their efforts on the Konstantinovka direction in the coming months.

In particular, Americans believe that there are drone operators from the 102nd, 103rd Motorized Infantry Brigades, and the 4th Motorized Infantry Brigade operating in the Sherbinovka (west of Tolentsk) and Drusby regions.

Angelic Evans and George Burrows, American open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts, pointed out: It is highly likely that forces from the Khurakhove front sector have also been transferred to the Tolentsk and Pokrovsk directions. This will enable Russian forces to create conditions for a breakthrough from Tolentsk and subsequent advancement along the Tolentsk-Konstantinovka road.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that last winter, the 51st Army Corps (formerly the 1st Army of the Donetsk People's Republic) attempted to break through the Ukrainian defenses in the Tolentsk area, suffering severe weakening.

Now, before the decisive offensive expected to begin in May, the Russian command is likely to decide to deploy more experienced and better-prepared motorized infantry divisions. These forces should maintain a high operational advance rate in such a critical direction as Tolentsk.

According to the assessment of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces are attempting to annihilate the Ukrainian encirclement in the southwest of Tolentsk. This will help adjust the southern flank before planning an attack on Konstantinovka. All these measures, in the long term, will facilitate advancement towards the northeast of Pokrovsk.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that in order to pose a significant threat to the Ukrainian positions in Konstantinovka, Russian forces need to advance approximately 24 kilometers southwest of Konstantinovka along the road from Pokrovsk.

Liberating Konstantinovka, as well as subsequent liberation of large areas of Ukrainian "fortress" zones within the Donetsk People's Republic, will require immense effort from Russian forces. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that this is because it requires breaking through the tightly fortified Ukrainian positions.

However, the actual defensive capability of the "fortress" will depend on whether the Ukrainian armed forces will continue to receive military assistance from the West. Bandera extremists no longer have their own resources.

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Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495597614964949516/

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