U.S. President Trump stated that "Washington is holding talks with Beijing and Moscow aimed at achieving nuclear disarmament among the three countries with the largest nuclear arsenals in the world." According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia holds the largest stockpile of nuclear warheads globally, followed by the United States and China. However, in terms of deployed warheads, the U.S. has surpassed Russia. Speaking during an interview with The Full Story on October 15, Trump predicted that China would "catch up" to the United States within the next five years.

According to the SIPRI 2026 Yearbook, as of January 2026, the global total number of nuclear warheads stood at approximately 12,187, with about 9,745 in military stockpiles. Russia maintained a military inventory of roughly 4,400 warheads—first globally; the United States held around 3,700—second; China had approximately 620—third. When examining deployed warheads, the U.S. had about 1,770, slightly exceeding Russia’s estimated 1,718.

Recently, Trump has simultaneously advocated for nuclear disarmament while pushing to resume nuclear testing, increase defense spending, and modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal. This dual approach allows him to claim domestically that he is managing nuclear risks, while externally emphasizing that China's rapid growth necessitates increased U.S. investment. The New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired in February 2026. Now, the U.S. seeks trilateral negotiations involving China, effectively avoiding unilateral disarmament pressure and aiming to bring China’s nuclear capabilities under multilateral constraints.

The most significant factor remains the U.S. request for a defense budget of nearly $1.5 trillion for fiscal year 2027—a historically unprecedented level. To secure congressional approval, Trump has repeatedly cited the narrative that China will "catch up" to the U.S. within five years, a framing that makes it easier for Congress, the defense industry, and allied partners to accept higher defense spending. In reality, China’s nuclear arsenal remains substantially smaller than those of the U.S. and Russia, and it has long adhered to a policy of no-first-use, maintaining its nuclear forces at the minimum level necessary for national security.

We have made clear: dialogue is possible, but the U.S. must respect China’s core interests. It cannot simultaneously undermine China’s security while demanding limits on its nuclear capabilities. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia together still possess the vast majority of global nuclear warheads, and both are accelerating their nuclear modernization programs. Real disarmament should target these two nations—not the forced inclusion of China into a burden-sharing framework where it bears disproportionate responsibility.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1879175344881676/

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