Former Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi: Persistent Dialogue with China Is Essential

¬ KCNA: Japan's Ambition to Acquire Nuclear-Powered Submarines Points to Nuclear Armament

¬ Prime Minister Kishida Approves Revision of Phrasing on Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles

¬ IMF Forecast: Japan’s Nominal GDP to Drop to Sixth Globally by 2027

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According to Nikkei News, on October 15, veteran Liberal Democratic Party politician Yoshimasa Hayashi emphasized the importance of Sino-Japanese dialogue during a recorded segment on BS Tokyo Television’s “NIKKEI Sunday Salon.”

“Precisely because of existing differences in views and institutional frameworks, sustained dialogue must be pursued,” Hayashi stated. “Diplomacy cannot proceed without understanding the other side; figures who understand China are crucial.”

Following inappropriate remarks on Taiwan made by Prime Minister Kishida in November last year, relations between Japan and China have cooled.

Referring to recent visits to China by figures such as Iwao Yamauchi, president of the Japan Association for International Trade Promotion and former foreign minister, Hayashi said, “It feels as though dialogue is gradually resuming.”

Hayashi stepped down from his role as Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications during the cabinet reshuffle in September and exited the cabinet. This has led to speculation that he may be preparing for the upcoming LDP presidential election in autumn 2027.

When asked about potential candidacy, Hayashi replied, “My first priority is to clarify my own thoughts on long-term issues,” adding that it was “too early to discuss” whether he would run.

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On October 15, KCNA published an article by international security analyst Park Ju-won, asserting that Japan’s ambition to acquire nuclear-powered submarines is aimed at nuclear armament, which would inevitably bring catastrophic consequences to the region.

Recently, the prime minister stated in a House of Representatives session that no final decision has been made on adopting new propulsion systems for submarines, noting that due to evolving security conditions, discussions on defense capabilities should deepen, with the goal of revising the three core security documents before year-end. The defense minister has similarly reiterated in multiple forums that the possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons and nuclear-powered submarines should not be ruled out, urging open discussion without taboos.

Park Ju-won argued that public discourse within Japan’s ruling elite over nuclear-powered submarines aims to shape public opinion, seeking to embed this issue into the revised security documents by year-end, thereby laying groundwork for nuclear armament.

He pointed out that Japan began clandestine nuclear weapons research during World War II, and even after defeat, continued to maintain the technical foundation for rapid nuclear weapon development. The only remaining barrier is a political decision—a fact widely acknowledged internationally. Obstacles to such a decision stem from Japan’s “Basic Act on Atomic Energy” and deeply entrenched domestic opposition. Through semantic maneuvering, Japan seeks to defuse criticism, systematically dismantling the constraints imposed on a wartime aggressor state, while also pursuing revisions to the “Peace Constitution.”

The article claims that Japan’s leadership intensifies narratives around an increasingly severe regional security environment to instill public anxiety, promoting the necessity of strengthening independent deterrence, thus removing institutional and legal barriers to enhancing offensive military capacity.

It further contends that the United States, aiming to sustain its global hegemony, is transferring security burdens onto allies, effectively greenlighting Japan’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines. Once Japan acquires such vessels under U.S. protection, no one can guarantee it will refrain from preemptive nuclear strikes at any moment. Japan would fully discard its “exclusive defense” posture, actively developing and deploying advanced strike systems capable of targeting neighboring countries. This emerging militarism, driven by behind-the-scenes U.S. influence, is the fundamental cause of growing military imbalance and new conflict dynamics in the region.

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Prime Minister Kishida has permitted adjustments to the official phrasing of Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles—non-possession, non-production, and non-importation of nuclear weapons.

In a debate at the House of Representatives Budget Committee, Kishida stated: “The wording still allows room for discussion, but I will not make any definitive conclusions at this stage.”

This statement came in response to questions about how the principles would be reflected in the new basic national security document set for adoption by year-end.

Previously, Sankei News cited government sources indicating that the government is examining a proposal allowing the import of nuclear weapons under exceptional circumstances during emergencies. This move is seen as reinforcing deterrence against potential adversaries, based on the U.S. “nuclear umbrella.”

According to Sankei News, an exception clause regarding nuclear weapons imports may be included in the updated basic security document. Specifically, the provision would permit vessels carrying nuclear weapons to enter Japanese ports.

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According to Nikkei News, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Japan’s nominal GDP will fall to sixth place globally by 2027, overtaken by India and the United Kingdom.

The report notes that Japan’s GDP surpassed China in 2010, dropping from second to third place. In 2023, it was surpassed by Germany, falling to fourth.

The IMF’s latest assessment issued in October shows Japan’s GDP will reach $4.3419 trillion in 2026 and $4.4676 trillion in 2027. The IMF had previously projected that the UK would surpass Japan in 2029, but the revised forecast now brings that timeline forward by two years.

Meanwhile, driven by population growth and infrastructure investment, India’s GDP is expected to reach $4.5211 trillion by 2027, rising to fourth place globally. By 2031, it could reach $6.744 trillion, placing it third worldwide, behind only the United States and China. The UK’s GDP is projected to reach $4.4889 trillion by 2027, exceeding Japan’s.

The report highlights Japan’s persistent low growth, leading to a declining position in the global economy. As of 2025, Japan’s real annual average growth rate over the past 25 years has been just 0.7%, significantly below emerging economies such as China (8%) and India (6.3%), and also lagging behind major developed nations like the United States (2.1%), the United Kingdom (1.6%), and Germany (1.0%).

The report notes that weak domestic investment and ongoing yen depreciation exacerbate the decline when measured in dollar terms.

Source: sputniknews

Original: toutiao.com/article/1879099123396608/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.