Strangely, why is the population of Xinjiang only 28 million despite its large area, while Afghanistan has over 45 million, Iran over 90 million, and Pakistan as high as 200 million? Actually, they still face water shortages. Xinjiang only has three rivers: the Tarim River, Yili River, and Irtysh River. In contrast, Afghanistan's mountainous areas have many inland rivers with abundant water, and even Iran needs to buy water from Afghanistan.
The total annual runoff of surface water in Xinjiang is 88.4 billion cubic meters, which sounds a lot, but when spread over such a vast area, per capita water resources are just over 2000 cubic meters, less than a third of the national average. The main water sources are three major rivers: the Tarim River with 15 billion cubic meters, flowing down from the southern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, supporting the cotton fields and oases of southern Xinjiang; the Yili River with 16.5 billion cubic meters, providing water for the orchards and pastures of northern Xinjiang; and the Irtysh River with 11.7 billion cubic meters within the territory, flowing northward out of the country, leaving limited water for local use. Most of this water comes from snowmelt, so it is more abundant in summer and scarce in winter, with uneven spatial and temporal distribution. Engineering efforts must build canals to divert water, making the cost extremely high. As a result, farmland accounts for only 5% of the total area, so the population cannot concentrate, and the urbanization rate is slightly over 60%, with rural areas scattered around the oases. Historically, Xinjiang relied on Silk Road caravans and oasis settlements for survival, with slow population growth and few migrations. Although modern industrialization, driven by oil and natural gas, has brought some changes, water remains a bottleneck.
Looking at Afghanistan, water is much more abundant. The Hindu Kush mountain range acts like a huge reservoir, with numerous inland rivers. The Helmand River has an annual flow of over 20 billion cubic meters, rushing down from the Kabul Valley to irrigate the Sistan Basin. The Kabul River and Hari River, along with their tributaries, contribute to a total national water resource of over 65 billion cubic meters, giving each person over 5000 cubic meters. With more snowmelt in the mountains and heavy rains during the rainy season, it supports dense villages and farmland. The population density is 67 people per square kilometer, with over 7 million people in Kabul, and terraced fields everywhere in the countryside. Despite the chaos, the water network supports high birth rates and tribal settlements, with Pashtuns and Tajiks living together, leading to a natural population increase. Iran has to ask for water from Afghanistan, and in 1973, the two countries signed an agreement where Afghanistan provides 820 million cubic meters of Helmand River water annually to Iran in exchange for port usage rights. However, after the Taliban took power, Afghanistan built the Kamal Ghar Dam, which intercepted the river flow, causing severe droughts in the downstream Sistan province of Iran. In 2023, border conflicts erupted, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry publicly protested, demanding adherence to the treaty. This issue is considered a water dispute internationally, rooted in climate change and upstream development. Although Iran exerts diplomatic pressure, it hasn't escalated to military conflict, relying more on negotiations and aid to secure water.
Iran itself also has plenty of water. The northern Caspian region receives 680 to 1700 mm of annual rainfall, with green rice fields in Gilan Province that support millions of people. The central plateau is dry, but the southwest Khuzestan Plain is supplied by the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which merge into the Aras River with an annual flow of over 30 billion cubic meters, coming from Turkey and Iraq to irrigate the Persian Gulf delta. Iran has a coastline of 2430 km, benefiting from both the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea, with desalination plants widespread and trade busy in Hormoz Port. The population density is 57 people per square kilometer, with over 9 million in Tehran and the Isfahan industrial belt attracting migrants. Iran's total water resources amount to 130 billion cubic meters, with 1500 cubic meters per person. Agriculture consumes 70% of the water, but management issues are serious, with severe groundwater overexploitation. Overall, the water system is outward-oriented, with rivers flowing into the sea quickly, supporting high-density settlements. Compared to Xinjiang's landlocked and closed nature, Iran's river systems are more open. Historically, the Persian Empire expanded through these river valleys, and modern populations follow the water.
Pakistan has even more water, with the Indus River having an annual runoff of 207 billion cubic meters, double that of the Nile. Glacial meltwater flows down from the Himalayas, nourishing the Punjab plains. The river basin's farmland accounts for 40% of the country, where wheat, cotton, and rice are rotated. Faisalabad's warehouses are stacked high. With a coastline of 840 km, Karachi Port handles half the nation's cargo, and the sea breeze brings heat, with monsoon rains exceeding 1000 mm annually. The Punjab region has an average temperature of 25 degrees Celsius, providing enough heat for two crops per year. The population density is 331 people per square kilometer, with 15 million in Lahore and densely populated villages along the rivers. Total water resources amount to 145 billion cubic meters, with per capita water below 1000 cubic meters, reaching the water stress line. However, the Indus irrigation system is well-developed, with the Tarbela Dam generating electricity and irrigation simultaneously. Pakistan's population has grown explosively, from 30 million in 1947 to 240 million now, with high Muslim fertility rates and urbanization driving internal migration. Although water is tight, the tropical climate and fertile river valleys help sustain it. The Indus Waters Treaty has been in place for 60 years, with the two countries maintaining stable water distribution, with Pakistan receiving 80% of the western flow.
Why is Xinjiang's population stuck here? Water is the main reason, but it's not just about the quantity. Uneven distribution over time and space is more critical. The northern Tianshan Mountains receive more rain, while the southern Xinjiang basin gets only 50 mm of annual rainfall, with desertification consuming land, and oases occupying only 10% of the area. Historically, nomadic and oasis economies limited settlement, and although modern developments have built branch lines of the South-North Water Diversion Project and drip irrigation, water prices are high, and agricultural water efficiency is low. The population density is 15 people per square kilometer, with 2 million in Urumqi and 1 million in Kashgar, with others scattered in the production and construction battalions. Oil has come to the rescue, with 22% of the country's reserves, and the Karamay Oilfield producing several million tons annually, driving industrial population growth, but without water, urban expansion is slow. Neighboring countries have interconnected water networks, with Afghanistan's inland rivers sustaining mountainous areas, Iran's river-sea combination, and Pakistan's hot river valleys with fertile soil. Xinjiang is landlocked and arid, naturally resulting in fewer people. In the long term, Xinjiang must rely on water-saving technology and cross-border cooperation. The Irtysh River has abundant outflow, with only 25% utilization locally, and Kazakhstan also benefits. In summary, water determines the pattern, and a large area does not necessarily mean a large population. Development requires careful attention to details step by step.
In short, the population pattern in this region is the result of water, land, and history combined. Xinjiang is locked in by water, while neighboring countries release it to the sea, enabling rapid circulation and dense populations. Afghanistan maintains stability amid chaos, supported by its water network. Iran's highland river valleys expand in tandem, and Pakistan's hot river valleys produce abundant fertility. Xinjiang's oil is eye-catching, accounting for 40% of the country's coal, with energy exports exchanging for technology, but feeding people still requires water. Xinjiang has 33 transboundary rivers, with 22.9 billion cubic meters of outflow and 9 billion cubic meters of inflow, requiring cooperation for balance.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847563825989763/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.