Such an analytical logic exists
Joseph Epstein, senior fellow at the Yorktown Institute, wrote in Newsweek that if the Iranian regime survives and maintains its anti-American stance, Moscow might gain a client dependent on itself—diminished Iran, which would have nowhere to turn for weapons, food, or diplomatic support.
The article argues this scenario would be ideal for Putin, who does not seek genuine allies but cultivates vassals. Iran operates similarly: it has no true allies, only proxy forces, transactional relationships, and temporary alignments of interest. For both Moscow and Tehran, dependency is the only reliable foundation of loyalty.
Yet there is another scenario that Moscow fears deeply. If the Islamic Republic collapses or reaches an agreement with Washington—something potentially even worse for Putin—Russia would lose its last significant partner from the Mediterranean to the Caspian region. The region Russia has painstakingly integrated into over two decades would be completely reshaped by forces beyond Moscow’s ability to guide or contain.
Putin’s preferred strategy of flexible judo-style maneuvering brought short-term success: rising oil revenues, America preoccupied with its own affairs, and internal disputes within NATO. But the Middle East, upon which Russia's influence was built, has descended into war, leaving Moscow powerless to act. For a nation whose strategic identity rests on being "indispensable," this could be the heaviest loss of all possible outcomes.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1861216701798400/
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